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Conflict in the Middle East
Original poster

Conflict Israel and other nearby countries

483 replies

EasterIssland · 09/12/2023 22:26

Israel is at war with Gaza. However , this has dragged other countries in the area as well.
weve heard about the problems in West Bank (there is a thread) but also Lebanon where civilians have been killed and journalists have been targeted and killed

they’ve also attacked several airports in Siria.

ive read in the past there was a conflict as well with Yemen and read now this” Yemen's Houthis warn they will target all ships headed to Israel”

it doesn’t sound that post this war living in Israel is going to be safer than before

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-will-target-ships-red-sea-en-route-israel-2023-12-09/

Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo

Yemen's Houthis warn they will target all ships headed to Israel

Yemen's Houthi movement said on Saturday they would target all ships heading to Israel, regardless of their nationality, and warned all international shipping companies against dealing with Israeli ports.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-will-target-ships-red-sea-en-route-israel-2023-12-09/

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Trulywonderful · 03/01/2024 12:57

EasterIssland · 03/01/2024 07:31

Thanks for the explanation @Trulywonderful it does makes sense what you explain and it was more or less one of my described options.

I guess israel / any nearby governments countries they’d prefer not to start a big war in the zone as at the end they’ll have casualties from their citizens as well as people not happy to be dragged to a war

Yes and the economy's of all the surrounding states and Israel would suffer greatly. No tourism which a lot really do need and business in general would be difficult. Therefore less income and more unemployment. This can cause civil unrest and wreck a country for many years. Most leaders don't want this to happen to their own states and it would likely destroy their leadship if it did.

Original poster
EasterIssland · 03/01/2024 07:31

Thanks for the explanation @Trulywonderful it does makes sense what you explain and it was more or less one of my described options.

I guess israel / any nearby governments countries they’d prefer not to start a big war in the zone as at the end they’ll have casualties from their citizens as well as people not happy to be dragged to a war

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Trulywonderful · 03/01/2024 02:56

EasterIssland · 02/01/2024 23:41

Or Egypt?
mainly asking because Israel has decided to attack on Lebanon

  1. They know there will be consequences that they’ll be able to handle
  1. They don’t attack other countries (Qatar - Egypt) cuz they’ve good relations / they won’t get any consequences or there would be consequences that could be too dangerous for Israel?

or I’m making nonsense (which is possible as well) just asking from a point of why have they attacked in Lebanon and whether there is a risk of this happening in any other nearby countries where Hamas members are

Edited
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Risk wise bombing or carrying out an attack on terrorist fighters in Lebanon or Syria is fairly low political and retaliation from most the Arab states. Some of more peaceful states have themselves had to carry out attacks/bombing on both Syria and Lebanon at different time to stop their own states being targets etc

The only risk of attacking Hamas offices or Hezbollah inside Lebanon is Hezbollah itself. They are strong weapons wise but Israel isn't planning to do a ground invasion,I think. So they should be OK if it is just missiles or drones. The only state that could join in really is Iran and I think they what to cause chaos with shipping and inside Israel, as well as international divide. They don't look at all like they plan to actually get involved in a full out war. They have however sent a war ship to near Lebanon. So may well help stop supply ships getting through that area of sea

If Israel was to do the same in Qatar they know they would not get away with it. Definitely not politically with the other Arab states. It would have the potential to cause the currently peaceful states to join together against Israel. So yes that would be is dangerous and start a conflict Israel could easily lose. Israel knows this so is very unlikely to target more than Lebanon or Syria to hit terrorist locations

Currently Qatar seems to be trying to push Hamas leaders out of there country. This is not for fear of an Israel attI believe. It seems to be them actually trying to make this current conflict come to an end. If Hamas leaders only have less safe places to flee they are more likely to agree the terms of a negotiation. Qatar is very keen make this happen and has voiced that Hamas are not great at playing ball on this (Israel are not either). Hamas leaders do have other countries that are fairly safe for them go but non offer both comfortable lifestyle and almost safety from random snipers that Qatar does.

Trulywonderful · 03/01/2024 02:29

@EasterIssland

A bit random but did you at any point spell your username with a lower case e as the first later

Original poster
EasterIssland · 02/01/2024 23:41

stomachameleon · 02/01/2024 23:21

Haniyah was in Cairo last week and every intelligence agency knew that. I think it's frowned upon if the country has peace treaties with the country they are 'guests' in.

Qatar has warned Hamas they can't keep them safe and to go. And loud enough it got to the media so make of that what you will.

Or Egypt?
mainly asking because Israel has decided to attack on Lebanon

  1. They know there will be consequences that they’ll be able to handle
  1. They don’t attack other countries (Qatar - Egypt) cuz they’ve good relations / they won’t get any consequences or there would be consequences that could be too dangerous for Israel?

or I’m making nonsense (which is possible as well) just asking from a point of why have they attacked in Lebanon and whether there is a risk of this happening in any other nearby countries where Hamas members are

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stomachameleon · 02/01/2024 23:21

Haniyah was in Cairo last week and every intelligence agency knew that. I think it's frowned upon if the country has peace treaties with the country they are 'guests' in.

Qatar has warned Hamas they can't keep them safe and to go. And loud enough it got to the media so make of that what you will.

SomeCatFromJapan · 02/01/2024 23:06

I don't think Israel would strike within Qatar. They're too key a US ally, given the military base there.

Original poster
EasterIssland · 02/01/2024 22:51

todays air strike has made me think if more Hamas bosses are in Qatar …. Would Israel kill then in Qatar -land ? Or they’re only trying if in Lebanon as whilst they know it’ll being consequences they can handle them ?

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stomachameleon · 02/01/2024 21:10

Try again...

Conflict Israel and other nearby countries
stomachameleon · 02/01/2024 21:09

Sorry it's a copy of info but a good point... 

plusjamais · 02/01/2024 21:08

Oz mainly reports from Ukraine but he's British-Lebanese and a voice worth listening to.

https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1742258055893368939

"Hezbollah effectively operates a state within a state in Lebanon, and the areas under its control are very much under its control and operate their own security services separate from the Lebanese state. As journalists we have a responsibility to actually address that.

Hezbollah literally runs Dahiyeh. It is specifically unlike other neighbourhoods precisely because it has its own security apparatus that is separate from the Lebanese state.

You cannot apply these ideas from your safe countries to Hezbollah. It is not a normal situation. The areas under their control are not normal areas. They are highly militarised & dangerous to enter, you cannot even enter parts of South Lebanon without their direct permission.

It being Hezbollah run does not automatically justify air strikes! I should not have to be adding this caveat! Our jobs as reporters is to tell the truth, not hide uncomfortable facts about Hezbollah to avoid giving state actors a pretext for retaliation".

https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1742258055893368939

Original poster
EasterIssland · 02/01/2024 20:58

I copy it rather than link it as it’s from a Spanish account I follow

Official statement from Hezbollah on the assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri: "The assassination took place in the southern suburbs of Beirut; it is an attack against Lebanon, its people and its security, and carries an important symbolic and security message for us. ..
Al-Arouri's murder will not go unanswered; Our hands are on the trigger and our fighters have the highest level of preparation. Today will be a memorable day for what lies ahea

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Original poster
EasterIssland · 02/01/2024 20:52

Parkingt111 · 02/01/2024 20:49

@stomachamaleon yes exactly this, I am not criticising the action but rather just expressing concern on what escalation it could lead to. Which also begs the question why they couldn't do similar in Gaza rather than bombing the hell out of it, using unguided ammunition killing thousands of civilians including children and injuring almost triple more than the death toll.

id be worried that at some point Lebanon government says enough is enough and they start a war against Israel. And I suspect Lebanon (hezbollaz aside) has got an army etc unlike Gaza

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Parkingt111 · 02/01/2024 20:49

@stomachamaleon yes exactly this, I am not criticising the action but rather just expressing concern on what escalation it could lead to. Which also begs the question why they couldn't do similar in Gaza rather than bombing the hell out of it, using unguided ammunition killing thousands of civilians including children and injuring almost triple more than the death toll.

stomachameleon · 02/01/2024 20:37

@Parking111 of course it would be arrogant to think otherwise. But Lebanon have been involved anyway before this.
Tbh this is what people wanted isn't it? More surgical strikes and less civilian. Taking out Hamas.

Original poster
EasterIssland · 02/01/2024 20:15

Parkingt111 · 02/01/2024 20:13

@stomachamaleon are you not worried about what the retaliation could mean for Israel? I feel abit worried at what this could all lead to

As mentioned above Lebanon’s pm is not happy about it and feels they’re dragging their country to the war

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Parkingt111 · 02/01/2024 20:13

@stomachamaleon are you not worried about what the retaliation could mean for Israel? I feel abit worried at what this could all lead to

stomachameleon · 02/01/2024 20:11

Puts further emphasis on Qatar asking Hamas to leave as they can't Guarantee their safety.

stomachameleon · 02/01/2024 20:09

@EasterIssland I can't see the Americans being that upset. There was a 5 million bounty on his head by the US department of the Treasury.

Parkingt111 · 02/01/2024 20:09

OK just seen sky news analysis says there is no doubt Israel is responsible which is why regev is emphasising that the strike was surgical but its a risky move that could well see a retaliation

Parkingt111 · 02/01/2024 20:06

Could Blinken cancelling his trip be due to fear of escalation in Israel and for his own safety? I saw the army spokesperson say they are staying ready for anything tonight

@EasterIssland thanks

BelleHathor · 02/01/2024 19:56

Well the Israeli UN representative tweeted this soon after the assassination.
https://x.com/dannydanon/status/1742224370213273770?s=20

Conflict Israel and other nearby countries
Original poster
EasterIssland · 02/01/2024 19:48

Parkingt111 · 02/01/2024 19:31

But isn't Israel saying it wasn't them that did it? Although the Washington Post is reporting that US officials believe Israel is responsible for it.

From BBC

We've just heard from an Israeli military spokesman, who did not respond directly to the killing of Saleh al-Arouri - but did say the Israel Defense Forces are in a state of high alert.
Israeli media is reporting that Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: "The IDF is at a very high level of readiness, in all arenas, in defence and offence. We are in high state of readiness for any scenario."
A senior adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described the explosion in Beirut as a "surgical strike" against Hamas's leadership.
Speaking to MSNBC in the US, Mark Regev pointed out that Israel has not taken responsibility for the attack.
"Whoever did it must be clear - that this was not an attack on the Lebanese state.
"Whoever did this did a surgical strike against the Hamas leadership,” he added.

@stomachamaleon I saw the comment from Hamas in the other post. I understood that they said they won’t release until ceasefire. Whilst now they’re saying no more negotiations until further notice ? (I might be wrong on this one tho)

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Parkingt111 · 02/01/2024 19:35

@stomachamaleon Mark Regev's wording was strange. We didn't do it but whoever did needs to make it clear it was a surgical strike. How could he know that?
Is it possible that a third party was paid/bribed to do it by Israel hence the reporting that the US believe Israel is responsible for it?
I suppose more will be revealed in due course

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