ONS 2022 PREDICTIONS THREAD

It's a confirmed date (finally) rather than an 'expected around' monthly estimate so will definitely be the 17th. Hallelujah!

Oh I hope it is, I have a c section booked for the 24th so fingers firmly crossed!

@ZoyaTheDestroyer ons has been updated - says 2022 stats will be released 1 week today - 17 may

Thanks, ZoyaTheDestroyer

I doubt it. Firstly, Muhammad is already the fifth most popular name and it’s unlikely that either the names above Muhammad would each decrease significantly enough for Muhammad to rank top, or Muhammad would have a significant uptick in use, unless there was a movement to register every Muhammad with the same spelling, which I'm not aware of. As you say it's already been the most popular name with combined spellings.

Also, if the ONS reverted to the pre-Covid release schedule then the list would have been published in August last year, far from this year’s general election. Even if they kept the Covid delay, that would have been October, where the stats would have been forgotten by election season. The longer it's delayed, the closer the release is to election season.

I have a theory that the reason they are sitting on it is because Mohammed was #1 in 2022 and they know that people/the media will lose their minds over it and it will be used as election fodder. They are probably waiting for the election to be called, especially as they have said they are going to add it to their "birth information" this time. Why do that unless you want to contextualise? (https://tinyurl.com/4jd6r3hk)

Of course, it would be nonsense to make a big deal out of it, even if Mohammed is #1. Firstly, Mohammed has been the top name for more than a decade when spellings are added together. Secondly, only 6% of population in E&W is Muslim but whereas White British parents are actively seeking unique names, many Muslim parents use Mohammed as a first name (sometimes every boy in the family has it) but use a middle name for everyday life.

Currently, it is set "provisionally" for May (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/birthcharacteristicsinenglandandwales2022 ) but they are constantly moving the month.

@ZoyaTheDestroyer thanks, will have a look for it!

@DemelzaRobins same, I've always loved baby name stats, then we struggled to conceive for years and I'd read the lists and think about what I might do if it ever worked and we could pick a name. And then it did work 5 years on, and now I can't use the data :/

I'd like to know the top 10 even, in case I want to steer clear of them. It's disappointing.

@ZoyaTheDestroyer is there usually some overlap? I might check those out

It is irritating. I've been an avid follower of the baby name stats for over 10 years, now I'm finally having a baby the ONS has decided to have a meltdown with them. Sod's law!

Also irritating that DH likes a lot of trendy names which feasibly could be much more popular now compared to 2021 stats. I'm not necessarily going to reject on that basis but I'd rather know ahead of time instead of afterwards.

@toastofthetown thanks for sharing the info. I really can’t see how they’ll get back on track.

@DemelzaRobins yep, I’m due in late May and will assume I also won’t get to see any data until she’s been here a while. Feels like Sod’s Law.

My baby may need to be delivered in late May (baby is measuring as large and is also currently breech). I think I'm resigned now to having no stats for 2022 to help me choose a name.

It’s annoying.

agree with what others have said, I think Margot, Maeve, Aurora, Ottilie will be big climbers for girls. Ezra, Arlo, Reuben, Theo/Theodore and Arthur for boys. I keep hearing Milo here too. I think Charlotte might now be more popular than Olivia and Amelia.

I think Olivia and Oliver might be falling a bit. I also don’t hear of as many Harrys, Jacks and Noahs as I once did.

Totally ridiculous. I can’t think of any good reason as to why it would need to be delayed

This was the explanation from a previous FOI request. 2023 names are predicted for July, based on another FOI request, but like you I have a lot of scepticism.

The next publication of our Births Characteristics bulletin will include an additional table of names of babies born in 2022 in England and Wales. This is planned for publication in April 2024.
Our annual publications follow a yearly cycle, where certain statistical bulletins need to be published before others. For example, our headline Births in England and Wales bulletin includes the first release of annual births data. It is published before more in-depth Births Characteristics bulletin and Baby Names statistics. They all use the same data, and this ensures an orderly release of statistics, relying on a proportionate number of statisticians, as per the statistics code of practice.
Last year, mid-year population estimates, which are needed for producing some of our statistics, were not published until 23 November 2023. This was later than the usual summer release, and a result, all the dependent births publications have been delayed too.

Did they ever respond to anyone saying why it’s so late? This is crazy, May is barely worth it and I have little faith they’ll get back on track for 2023 data.

Checking in again at the end of March, and the 2022 Birth Characteristics dataset which will include names for the first time has been pushed back to May 😫😡 Almost half of the children this release pertains to will be 2 years old, even if they meet this new deadline - which I don't have much faith in at this point.

Thank you! Let’s hope it actually is released in April 🤞🤞

Not yet, and there’s still a (provisional) after April. This is the release though and hopefully we’ll have a date (or even the dataset!) soon.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/birthcharacteristicsinenglandandwales2022

Thank you! Do we know when in April for the 2022 data?

I don't think Olivia will drop much but there will be many new names coming up.
I don't know any very young Olivers or Olivias but the names are being registered.

Margot and Arlo will probably be far more popular - I think parents were choosing them thinking the were a bit unusual without realising that many others thought the same.

Some names seem to spring from nowhere into the top 100/50/20. Hallie seems to have come from nowhere.

Muhammad/Muhammed/Mohamed/Mohamad/Mohammed/Mohammad are collectively very popular but the spellings aren't combined in the statistics.

I’m back to my new favourite hobby of scouting the FOI requests for updated information on the release dates, and it seems like the plan for the release of the 2023 data is July 2024. Hopefully that’s right and we’ll be back on schedule with a normal delay for processing data.

2022 names are still forecast to be April.

I agree. I don't know any little Olivia's but know tons of Etta, ettie etc