AIBU to worry that war is coming for the UK?

Gosh when I read your last sentence I just had an image of the small boats arriving. I mean isn't there alot of suspicion that many of these men are organised to come over by criminal gangs, probably russian. They are not tanks but there is more than one way to get the enemy onto our shores.

I agree with the rest of your post as well.

Yes, I think this is a very accurate summary of what modern war could look like actually.

Yup

Why do small boats have to come into everything?
Other States are quite capable of entering our country by ordinary means.
Stirring up xenophobia over small boats is just another method of upsetting the status quo no doubt fuelled by those who mean us harm.

When Russia invaded the Crimea in 2014, Europe and NATO allowed it.We didn't go to Ukraine's aid. That failure made Putin think he could invade the rest of Ukraine and we would all look the other way.

Thankfully, we supported Ukraine in 2022 and Putin now knows both Europe & NATO are on alert. Sweden & Finland have joined NATO in response to Putin's aggression. The Baltic states were already members.

Putin also lost a key ally when Viktor Orban was voted out as PM of Hungary.

Maintaining a united front is essential.

It wouldn’t be a traditional ground war. They’d have to take the whole of Western Europe before they got to us.

It would be targeted at power/water infrastructure and communications. We could be cut off by jamming satellites and cutting undersea cables, we’ve left ourselves wide open by getting rid of analogue phone lines - stupidest idea ever. ( wonders if Starlink is protected from jamming 🧐).
Thankfully we have nuclear subs.
On the plus side, I expect tens, maybe hundreds of thousands to leave the country if conscription ever came in, unless exemption was given to certain religions 🙄

Let it happen.
I dont think it will but just really dont care if it did.

I only care because DH would definitely be called up, even at 60. An awful lot of veterans would refuse, they’d rather stay at home and defend this country from the invaders already here.

We can't apply conventional logic to Russia.
"Why do we need a world if Russia is not in it?“

Russia is living at a war economy. There is no plan there for some "normal" after war, the only way to keep it together is to escalate - and changing from not-that-successfull war with Ukraine to one with Nato is "the escalation" which would keep Russia going.

Baltic countries understand that the only possible response is "if you dare come we will eat you alive" - understanding they can't really prevent it, accept it is an option, make it as hard as possible and get ready not to crumble.

So Russia needs to escalate elsewhere (as well), to get some actual crumbling done. There was a rather verified threat recently of drone attacks from container ships in mediterranean sea focused on France/Italy/Spain.

And stopping supporting Ukraine now wouldn't lead to anyone being left alone. It would be seen as a sign of weekness. Good place to go and do some crumbling.

The good thing is, that Brexit haven't severed the defense ties in Europe. Those operate under Nato&Friends (including now membera like Finland), and work as well as political representation allows.

(In my country the populistic minister of defense made a big claims of "no more military aid for Ukraine" the day before a relatively big transfer was signed off. There is just a zero connection between internal political proclamations and reality. Weird)

If you read the article they seem to be talking not primarily about a 'hot' war but more one of sabotage, disruption etc, and it does seem entirely possible. These things are cheaper to conduct that a full on war and Russia may seek to destabilise wealthier countries like the UK, not to try to invade them, but to lessen their ability to intervene if Russia invades some of its neighbouring countries.

My son is a reservist but he also runs a small garage so he’d be amongst the last in line to be called up. I say that as a CS with the MOD for many years.
A threat is real. We might not know where that threat will come from, as their are many possibilities, but whether it’s a short term effect from El Niño or hostility, who amongst us on the streets really knows? There is much daily covert activity that’s been ongoing for years listening and watching and I find that some comfort.
The thing that mainly worries me is whether that bunch of clowns in charge can truly appreciate what information they will be being briefed. I notice how relatively quiet Streeting has become since becoming in charge of Defence, where he will be subject to the ongoing threat brief in all its horror and detail.
Do I trust them to lead us in adversity? No, plain and simple.
Meanwhile they have us worrying about whether we have enough loo rolls for a few days. When Deliveroo can’t provide due to a lack of fuel and resources maybe some will take note!!

“To the representatives of the Russian Federation, I have this to say:
“You have been trying to conquer Donbas for over 12 years, and Kyiv for over four.
“You have been stopped by heroic Ukraine, a country with one-tenth of Russia’s GDP.
“But Poland has almost half of your GDP.
“Europe has 10 times your GDP.
“NATO has 25 times your GDP.
“You can still kill a lot of people, but you cannot win.”
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski

They'll carry on fiddling with our cables, satellites etc but it's difficult to envisage a full-fledged war. If they tried, it would be over very, very quickly. We do need to do much more to stop the fiddling though.

If you look at all the recent statements from western leaders, there is a definite ramping up of the rhetoric. They are now being very clear about specific threats, but it is very much focused on grey threats, disruption of our infrastructure, knocking out satellites etc as opposed to a conventional war.

The threat of war is definitely closer than it has been for decades, but that doesn't mean it's inevitable - or that it will mean conventional or nuclear warfare.

Putin is dangerous but he's not entirely insane. In a sense, he has no need to use conventional weapons if he can, say, use misinformation to undermine democracy and cyberattacks to take out services. He won't want a war with NATO any more than we want war with Russia. But he will continue to test the water, which is why we're seeing a ramping up from NATO countries - they're effectively saying "try us and we'll be ready" which is a defensive deterrent. My best guess is that he will test boundaries by 'accidentally' landing a missile in a country neighbouring Ukraine (there's a school of thought he may have already done this in Poland).

Western leaders are also attempting to weaken ties in the Iran/ Russia/ China alliance by actively courting China. They depend on US, UK and Europe financially. See how Trump rolled out the red carpet for Xi. See how our own government is forging partnerships with Chinese industry.

Then there's Greenland. We hear nothing more about the US annexing it and suddenly it's back in the news again - and to everyone's surprise, a deal has been struck. The deal is not much more than was already in place of course, but this is Greenland/ Denmark and the US demonstrating that they understand the critical defensive positioning of Greenland. This was them staying "we're together in this - Greenland is not for the taking".

I think the point is that there is a lot of manoeuvring taking place that is definitely aimed at showing strength and unity with the precise aim of avoiding all out war.

And even if war did begin in a much more conventional sense, it would take one hell of an escalation for it to turn nuclear.

The best thing you can do is accept that war remains a possibility - one that is currently heightened. But that people who are far more intelligent and composed than us here on mn are doing everything they can to avoid it.

Take notice of the government's preparation advice - enough food, water and essentials for a few days of disruption (most likely to be a cyber attack or similar). We are still a long way off all out conflict and hey, who knows, maybe one of Putin's own will succeed in putting a bullet in his head before that happens. Russia's lack of progress in Ukraine is telling, as is their refrain from resorting to tactical nuclear weapons to win that war. They are not in a great place, and NATO is getting into better shape every day.

I hope this helps alleviate fears.

Best yet :)

No, we wouldn't be. Russia has already created actual physical harm on British soil, not just through cyber events and election interference. It was happening well before they invaded Ukraine and it will continue to happen no matter what sort of horrific appeasement attitude prevails.

Basically, one very key thing has changed, which is that America is no longer an ally to Europe, or at least not a reliable one. This was one reason Russia were so keen to have Trump elected. I don't think he's some active Russian agent or anything, just Russia knew he would alienate everyone else and he outright promised to stop providing support to any other country, so they did a lot of bot work to help get him in. It might have happened without Russia, but they certainly helped.

It's also harder to share intelligence now that everywhere else needs to assume American Intelligence is compromised (even if for no other reason that sheer incompetence at the top)

This doesn't guarantee 'war', but it certainly means shenanigans and skulduggery will increase.

Well to be more accurate, Russia can't even beat a Ukraine which is being lent an enormous amount of logistical, material, financial, technological, and intelligence support from most of Western, Northern, and Central Europe, plus others like the US, Canada etc etc

Without that, Russia absolutely would have rolled Ukraine in a few short weeks, even given the clownshoes nature of aspects of Russia's invasion.

I don’t know why we just don’t accept the US is no longer our ally and (a) pivot towards other allies and (b) start investing serious money in our own defensive capabilities.

America isn’t going to ride to our rescue. Stop trying to keep the man-baby happy, because he and those around us hate Britain and Europe. No amount of schmoozing and pussyfooting round him is going to change that.