To not have many options re mortgage

It is of little importance what a backward looking average is when determining the future of the base rate.

all this panic fear mongering is not useful. Swaps will be what they will be and rates the same. You can’t predict the market. The rates for fixed rate products are the same now as when there was a base rate of 5.25% and the base rate is 3.75%, thus showing it doesn’t all hang on the base rate (unless you have a base rate linked tracker)

Also a simple google will tell you that no it doesn’t.

not even all tracker mortgages are based on base rate.

Well then maybe check the economic forecast because it doesn’t have the overnight Sonia at 5% even by 2030 and I’d have thought an economist would know that

i literally price mortgages for a living, they are priced on the forward swap

Of course it's a prediction, but we know direction of travel 12 months from now isn't that that hard to predict, and it won't be 2.45%...

...and yes an economist..

What is average rates over past few decades??

Again, just look at direction of travel across world..BoE WILL follow suit...

Friendly reminder that everything uses the base rate as the index..google for simple explanation.

Hand the issue over to a mortgage broker. They'll find the best deal for you, and often have access to deals that the general public don't.

I used a fantastic broker when I moved into my current place. Mine doesn't expire until September 2029, but I'll be going right back to him when the time comes.

Please try not to panic. I've run the numbers and I think your DP's £4-5k figure is too high, unless the new mortgage is on a much shorter term.

1. What you'd realistically pay

You started a 35 year term in 2017, so in July 2027 you'll have about 25 years left. Using £550k over 25 years on a repayment mortgage:

• at 4.5%: about £3,060 a month
• at 5%: about £3,215 a month
• at 5.5%: about £3,380 a month
• at 6%: about £3,545 a month

So that's roughly £600 to £1,000 a month more than now. It's a real jump, but it's not £4-5k. To hit £4k+ at 5% you'd need to shrink the term to around 15 years (about £4,350). It's worth asking DP where their figure came from, because a lender or calculator may have assumed a shorter term.

2. You're in a strong position

• Your loan is about 60% of your home's value (£550k on £910k), and it'll be slightly under 60% by July because you're paying it down. 60% LTV and below is where the best rates are.
• £550k is under 3x your £200k joint income, so affordability checks shouldn't be an issue.
• Having just gone through this process myself, the affordability checks are mainly on credit, whether you have any children that are under 18 living at home, car finance. That kind of thing, everything else - utlities, council tax, groveries are not part of affordability checks.

3. Your options

1. Product transfer: stay with your current lender and pick a new deal. It's usually quick, often with no new affordability checks.
2. Remortgage: move to a different lender if they're cheaper. A broker can compare the whole market against your current lender's offer. I recently got a further advance with Halifax and the rate was 5.19% 2 year fixed.
3. Lock in early: most lenders let you secure a new rate up to 3/6 months before your deal ends, so from around January 2027. (Application or Mortgage in prinicple) If rates fall before July, many will let you switch to a cheaper like-for-like deal before it starts. This protects you if rates go up and costs you nothing if they go down.
4. Keep the term long: you can keep the remaining 25 years (or extend it) to keep payments down, and overpay later when you're comfortable. Halifax for example let you extend to 75, but that involves an hour and a half call with a mortgage advisor. I have also just done this, took a while but was fine.

4. Interest only?

Possibly. You'd need a lender-approved repayment plan. Some lenders accept "sell the house at the end" if you have enough equity. For example, one major lender asks for at least £300k equity for London properties and max 60% LTV. You'd have about £360-375k equity, so on paper you're close, but it depends on the valuation. Interest only on £550k at 5% would be about £2,290 a month, but you'd still owe the full £550k at the end.

"Part and part" (some interest only, some repayment) is a more common middle ground. A broker can tell you which lenders would accept you.

I really wouldn't go interest only unless you were really struggling to pay.

5. A tip for the next 10 months

You're paying 2.45%, and easy-access savings currently pay more than that. Rather than overpaying now, consider saving the extra, then using it as a lump sum to reduce the balance when the fix ends. Check your early repayment charge (ERC) rules first. ERC charges will be outlined in your mortgage offer documentation, and most lenders let you overpay 10% of the balance per year.

6. Will things change by July 2027?

Nobody knows. The Bank of England held the base rate at 3.75% this month. Markets are pricing in rises through 2027, while economists surveyed by the Bank expect little change. That uncertainty is exactly why locking in 6 months ahead is useful.

7. What to do now

• Ask DP how the £4-5k was calculated
• Speak to a whole-of-market mortgage broker around - November/December, so you're ready to lock in from January
• Get your current lender's product transfer options at the same time so the broker has something to beat
• A mortgage broker usually has a direct line into all of the main lenders. I do know a good one (no, not me), so if you need that I can somehow put you in touch.

Useful links:

• MoneyHelper mortgage calculator (free, government-backed): www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/homes/buying-a-home/mortgage-calculator
• Mortgage Charter (lock in early, switching options): www.gov.uk/government/publications/mortgage-charter-2026/mortgage-charter
• MoneySavingExpert remortgage guide: www.moneysavingexpert.com/mortgages/remortgage-guide/
• MoneyHelper guide to choosing a mortgage adviser: www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/homes/buying-a-home/choosing-a-mortgage-adviser

I'm not a financial adviser, so please check everything with a broker. From what you've shared, though, this looks manageable.

I would suggest seeing a mortgage broker. For ca £400 they will answer all your questions, hunt out the best deal etc. Particularly good if you are time-poor!

I can sympathise. Live in London (Zone 1/2) took out a bigger sum than yours 6.5 years ago (but at 1.24%) and worked my arse off to overpay the max each year - while also investing elsewhere etc - as I knew the rates wouldn't stay this low forever and I needed to get overall amount down by the time it came up for renewal.

(BTW, my mortgage docs did give the full illustration of my monthly payments at each level of potential future interest rate - I remember feeling quite faint when I looked to see what it might be at 7%! Absolutely incentivised me to overpay, well done that bank!)

Due to remortgage early next year and just got a 4.5% rate (ouch) but on a much lower sum than I had initially taken out, so ca £2k a month payments and have reduced the term too so I can be mortgage-free sooner.

This was all done with a mortgage broker - do go and see one, they will answer all the questions you are asking and may put your mind at rest.

I am not sure what you are arguing with here. OP said her mortgage interest is going up to 6%. You said she could get 4.5% which is better than 6%. Which is exactly what I said in my post...

There are a lot of “it depends” on the answer to this question.

You should be able to port your mortgage at the same lender for the same rate. So I don’t see a problem.

If I were you, I would get in touch with an independent mortgage advisor and ask them to help you. But I would say “porting” your mortgage is the best bet.

And that's my point, we can guess or try to predict but no one knows for sure. It's all predictions.

Are you an economist or work in treasury for a bank. You’re talking rubbish. The economic forecast til 2030 doesn’t have on Sonia at 5%

You can’t possibly know that! You have no idea what the forward swap will be when she comes to product transfer. No one does.

sure the market has been pricing in BBR increases since Feb, but they’ve yet to happen. The amount, the timing etc fluctuates hugely. November does look likely but so did July a few months ago.

ps fixed rate mortgages are not based on the bank base rate. I could say that until im blue in the face, but everyone seems to think they are. It’s common to see rates far about base rate aka now and below aka the start of the year

friendly reminder that fixed rate mortgages are not priced on thr Bank of England base rate

Just learn to manage your money better. You have small mortgage compared to your income

No she won't. Not with 30 years left and current rate of 2.45%. Interest rates increases are only going in one direction over next 12 months...lool at Fed, ECB, BoJ, etc. BoE will follow suit.. She'll at best get rate of 4.5% ish..

Ermm..of course we'll know or can guess.. It'll be closer to 5%.

It's likely that we'll see another 0.75% increase in the base rate over next 12 months. Remember that 5% is the long term average. If you can't manage that you're over leveraged, and need to downsize or earn more.

My question was meant as hypothetical (but maybe my grammar was not).

If the paperwork had contained example numbers for possible scenarios (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7%), would it be usefull ?

I'm curious now

If the mortgage documents clearly spelt out that the rise you are expecting now can easily happen (with the real numbers), would it change your thinking about taking it or approach to repayments?

No judgment about your choices, I just remember that when we took ours, the numbers weren't trivially available and we were actively asking/modeling ourselves to get them.