AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling?

Translated from German

Drone found near German Air Force airbase – investigators examine connection to Leipzig

Parts of a drone were discovered near the Bundeswehr airbase in Wunstorf earlier this week. According to a media report, there are similarities to the attempted attack at Leipzig Airport.
[RTB - the one that's officially linked by the German government to Russia]

The NDR (North German Broadcasting) had previously reported on similarities in the construction of the drone parts found near Wunstorf to those in the Leipzig case. One part is said to have been 3D printed and therefore not commercially available. The spokeswoman for the Federal Prosecutor's Office stated that she generally does not comment on such reports

Source: Welt.de

Gas shortages starting to impact

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-disruption-hits-bangladesh-pakistan-gulf-crisis-worsens-2026-09-17/

In Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, Parvin Akter times her cooking to the neighborhood's availability of piped gas. With gas in intermittent supply as a result of a global energy crunch, she now sometimes has to wait until midnight to cook her dinner.
Even switching to an induction cooker has not helped, as power outages often leave food half-cooked.

More than 2,000 km (1,200 miles) away on the other side of South Asia, in Pakistan, the government has started a fuel subsidy that went into effect on Wednesday to ease the sharp rise in fuel prices.
Vehicle owners have to register for the subsidy, however, and the programme is not working smoothly. Mohammad Musharraf, a resident of Karachi, says he has spent days trying to register with his motorcycle and ID card number, but has struggled.
"First of all, you have to register your vehicle. Then you have to register your mobile phone. How can an illiterate person survive if the conditions are so difficult?"

And

In Bangladesh, the shortfall has triggered blackouts and factory shutdowns. Pakistan and other countries in the region are rushing to blunt public anger with hastily introduced subsidies.
Bangladesh draws more than 40% of its electricity from imported LNG, and disruptions in deliveries from Qatar - once the source of 95% of those imports - have forced Dhaka to chase costlier cargoes on the spot market. "Industrial growth is slowing down, and production is going down," Power Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud said this week.
The strain shows up in orders in its garments industry, the country's biggest export. A survey of knitwear factories by the BKMEA trade group found 55% had seen buyers cancel or cut orders because of gas and power shortages since late August, and 78% had partially halted production.

And

Others had to take on additional expenses after energy-related production delays forced them to send finished products by plane to meet deadlines. Garment industry executive Fazlee Shamim Ehsan said his factory had to pay $50,000 to send hoodie jackets by air freight to a French buyer.
"On top of that, we’ve had to spend extra money on diesel just to keep the factory running," said Ehsan, who is the managing director of Fatullah Apparels Ltd.
In Tangail city, poultry farmer Sayedul Islam said power outages are killing 15 to 20 of his birds a day because he cannot run the electric fans needed to cool his sheds.
Even hospitals aren't spared. In Sylhet, power cuts hit the local hospital almost hourly. While generators keep intensive care units running, they don't always suffice for ward ventilation, leaving patients to cope with the heat in crowded rooms.

I note the UK looks ok.

For now.

But shortages elsewhere have knock on effects.

India = pharmaceutical production for example

It does not show impact on cargo ship movement.

NATO secretary general mark rutte says they are preparing for a scenario of war in Europe and Taiwan.

Secretary General Mark Rutte says NATO's force planning has to account for a “simultaneous multi-theatre conflict”, including the possibility that a Chinese move against Taiwan could coincide with Russian military action in Europe. Rutte's concern is that Beijing could turn to Moscow to keep the United States and its European allies occupied while China moves against Taiwan.

“You would have a serious problem in both theatres
.”

Zelenskyy said yesterday words to the effect that he now thought China was supporting Russia due to components in North Korean missiles that had hit Ukraine.

Yes.

This is where we are.

Goodness recession coming in 5,4,3,2.............

I would laugh if it wasn't so scary.

A country with millions of sick people unable to work and on benefits.....not ready for war. Yes I think the BBC might be right. I wonder if we will have a new welfare benefit from Andy - 'the talk of war has scared me so now I can't leave the house, go to work, look after myself'.

This might actually be the 'crisis' that bankrupts the UK.

So Trump withdrawing troops from Europe - is that because he is moving them to 'safety' out of Europe?

If so that is really, really worrying.

Scary what is happening in Poland.

Yes re BBC I do feel we are deliberately being 'kept calm'. The mega rich are probably already in their bunkers (only half joking)

Hi this is the radio I ordered.ROCAM FM/AM Wind up Radio Solar, Emergency Survival Radio with 12000mAh Rechargeable Battery, Torch, Reading Light, Type C & USB Charging & SOS for Power Outages & Outdoor Camping: Amazon.co.uk: Electronics & Photo

I am no expert but I needed an A port for an old iphone which is still working to recharge.
It has 3 C ports which will be for my more modern samsung phone, my laptop and my kindle hopefully.

Had to learn about usb a and usb c ports in last few days as I admit I was ignorant.

My iphone is lighting port at one end and a at the other. It's an iphone 7.

Anyway this radio works on batteries so I bought a supply of them. It is also supposed to be solar and wind up too. It also has a charging port so that is useful.

I figured if so many people had bought it, it was good enough for me although I did spend a bit of time trying to understand the above too.

Good luck

P.S.Did I say 5000 of them had been bought in last month. Looking today it says 500 so either my eye sight is going or the number has changed as we are now a week later. That's just the yellow ones mind.

Can I just say how sensible this is. There will be people really caught out I fear.

This is a series of tweets relating to what's happening in the US but you will get the point and it's relevance.

Casey B Head AT CaseyBHead
It is going to be a hard winter. Heating oil is $5.699 right now. I normally do a pre buy of 500 gallons in August to lock in the price before winter demand hits. First they told me to check back in September, and then called me just now to say no pre buys because of the market.

Peter B AT realpeteyb123
I have a lot of friends in the heating oil business, and they’re telling me it’s absolute chaos right now.
I was also talking to a friend who owns a trucking company with a large fleet of diesel trucks. He told me their fuel costs are changing so quickly that it’s becoming incredibly difficult to price jobs and plan ahead.
You gotta know the streets, listen to the man, find out what’s happening.
Pain is coming

(When challenged about his use of language, Peter B replied: The streets and the man is an old Wall Street metaphore for seeing and understanding sentiment and what’s coming… I used to be a stockbroker.)

The Flippin Floridan AT Brainlinker
Asked my trucker friend.
As an independent contractor he pays for fuel himself. Went from paying $1200 a week to $2000 a week for fuel. His margins slashed.
Said a medium sized trucking biz just closed down.
Says drivers will stop driving cause it doesn’t make $$. Fuel surcharge fees that are meant to be a buffer for them do not make up for the bump in diesel.
Pain.

Chivalrous Shark AT JNKerr13
My brother in law runs a concrete plant. They have to update their fuel delivery surcharges weekly now. The last time I remember everyone screaming about fuel was 2007-2008. I don’t think it will be that bad but you never know. If a going to put a clamp on things. Look at how many diesel pusher luxury RVs are in the market right now! Pain is definitely coming!

N2 Rotation AT BlisteredSkies
Agreed. I purchased several hundreds of thousands of dollars in Jet fuel each year for my principal.
Trump was dishonest about the Venezuelan oil filling the SPR.
1. It’s very heavy crude. To make it even remotely usable you have to dilute it, blend it, Coke it, and upgrade it to refine to a level remotely usable. This is a capital intensive process.
2. He had already met with the heads of Chevron and Exxon. They refused to put capex into a country that could nationalize again and take their investment.
3. We tried this in the 80s and it nearly ruined our supply to blend it with our light sweet crude.
Couple these issues with the fact that the Strait of Hormuz , presents problems, they just bombed pipelines in Saudi Arabia, causing supply shock, and of course, the ongoing Russian and Ukrainian war.
Diesel and jet fuel are skyrocketing right now. Most places I go are 8 to $10 per gallon of Jet A.

Lucy AT LucciaorLucy
Just had a conversation with a farmer who uses heating oil. He said as of today’s prices, his costs for heating will be 3-4K higher than last year here in Michigan. Let’s not get into the diesel costs for his farm.

SkIdMaRk AT SFCSkIdMaRk
I live in upstate NY. Tons of homes are oil furnace. It’s been bad for awhile. It’s true what ya said. It’s about to get worst. What sucks is that this is a state problem. Even propane is high. Really hoping Blakeman gets in as Governor.

Peter Jones AT PeteyJ93
I am in the construction field and know of 3 companies that already parked their trucks due to diesel prices. Oct 1st there is supposed to be a trucking strike

Now I don't often post threads from complete randoms as it's hard to gauge how accurate/ genuine people are on them. However this thread is one I do think is real and says a lot that is almost certainly going to be happening in the UK and EU too (France already has fishermen striking at oil refinery).

There are a number of posts which blame Ukraine too which is interesting. But I'm more interested in the practical real world impacts at this point.

If anyone is looking at adding to their larder, Aldi beans, tinned tomatoes, butter (it freezes nicely) sardines etc. are currently still at what I imagine are their "loss leader" pricing and Tesco seemed to be matching most of those (we don't have other supermarkets).

There was an interesting programme on last night about the challenges the weather has been bringing to farming. It was a clear warning about costs increasing and many farmers not surviving in farming. It suggested we currently import 40% of our food. It was pretty a sobering in terms of inevitable food inflation BUT it didn't even touch on the geopolitical issues, the oil crisis and the impact that this will surely have in terms of distribution costs. (I'm not sure what the programme was DH had paused it early evening while I was dog waking).

It appeared to me that veg prices were heading up - I don't have comparison prices though to be sure.

There's another similar thread running. Both worth reading. I think I'm going to continue with this one for now (if it fills, I'll move onto the other until that's full and onwards from there).

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5573921-aibu-to-think-the-stockpile-advice-suggests-something-to-come?page=16&reply=154824679

I think events are starting to come together and escalate. It's starting to get taken seriously by heavyweight journalists. This isn't going away.

Let's see if Burnham says anything today. Tumbleweeds today would not be a good indication.

Not just yours.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-17/aramco-hunts-for-fuel-supply-in-the-mediterranean-after-attacks

This article is paywalled. It doesn't matter.

You can read the headline. You do not need to read more.

To explain. Aramco is the State Owned Oil company of Saudi Arabia.

Yes the same Saudi Arabia who are saying their pipeline will be repaired partly in 3 days or something.

Except, they are now shipping as much oil as they can buy road to Oman or via other routes. This requires diesel. Diesel they don't have... Because their refineries are now offline or at least aren't making enough to cover their increased demand.

Saudi Arabia is BUYING diesel.

It's all about diesel.

I wonder if the sudden return to the UK of a certain member of the Royal Family with strong military connections is at least partially related to this? I’m sure he wouldn’t want to be living overseas and risk being unable to safely return to his homeland in the event of war.
Just speculation, the thought crossed my mind.

Airports in Lublin and Rzeszów have suspended flight operations again. Airspace closed for military.

Sometimes that happens. If they've started a worthwhile thread, then just go with it. Some of the most important threads MN has are sometimes bigger than individual posters and their strength lies in that.

From the above:
Something could just as easily have gone wrong when a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish helicopter on Monday. Or when a Russian drone entered Lithuanian air space on Tuesday evening and was shot down by an Italian jet.

Well that's exactly what I was thinking, new thread series.
Bridge-crossing; I'm a notorious thinker-ahead. But yes anything could happen 'twixt here and thread's end. Shame OP lost interest but thanks to her we have this whole shiny new subject coming together here.

The Times

https://link.thetimes.com/view/686fcf7573982abee5088022sarfb.l9w/7cc6997c
War and Peace
Tom Newton Dunn

All the big journalists on my twitter feed seem to slowly crawling out from rocks and are noticing.

It's both reassuring that my Spideysenses aren't off but also terrifying.

I have a feeling it may become a new thread series. We will cross that bridge...

https://apnews.com/article/poland-russia-ukraine-nato-baltics-drones-rockets-818fe48227ee28d60fe86d8fe6485f5c
Associated Press News Agency. Sources don't get better than this.

“They are convinced the winter will be tragically critical for Ukraine,” Tusk said. He said last winter Poland stepped in with deliveries when Ukraine’s energy infrastructure came under attack, but if border crossings are destroyed, it will be much harder for Warsaw to offer such help this upcoming winter.

“Russia’s goal is to destroy as much as possible the economy and logistics of Ukraine,” Tusk said, adding that intelligence indicates continuous attacks of “very high frequency and intensity” on six main Ukrainian cities should be expected in the near future.

Tusk announced on Thursday he would travel to Ukraine overnight to Friday, in what can be seen as an act of defiance against Russia after European leaders narrowly escaped a drone strike on a train near the Polish-Ukrainian border on Sunday. Officials usually keep their travel plans to Ukraine secret for security reasons.

In Kyiv, he said he would discuss with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy how to defend against the new types of drones as well as discuss with partners including Slovakia about further sanctions against Russia.

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that “major progress is being made toward establishing a U.S. Army base in Poland” after a U.S. delegation was in Poland last week to visit several possible locations.

“If this happens, the location will be announced very soon,” Trump wrote. “This will be a historic step for our Great U.S./Polish Alliance.”

Poland has for years sought to host a permanent U.S. base as a strong guarantee of its security in the face of the rising Russian threat.

Also see attached photo.

This is JPMorgan talking about managing financial risk in relation to oil. They basically say, all bets are off, we have not got a clue where this is headed because we no longer have a baseline not any idea how far this will be pushed.

Ah see your point. I do get it through threads I'm on. I'm more thinking about when it gets to 1000, it's nearly 600 now. Once it's at 1000 I feel an urge to tuck it away somewhere safer than AIBU! 😂 IYSWIM.
Feels like a new kind of thread. Pulling together lots of strands of current concern.

No. It will disappear. AIBU has traffic. Even if it pops up and down in AIBU more people will see it. Even I'm hyperventilating.

Look on your 'threads I'm on' if you want to keep following. Or bookmark it.

I have a feeling it will start to get traction. Eventually.

BBC this morning.

Short on details of what's actually happening but asking if we are psychologically prepared for a war that may be coming!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmn0jke547r5o