Do we actually need to get two weeks of food in?

I remember listening to radio interviews of people in Ukraine immediately prior to the invasion.
While they were prepared to go, most, if not all, genuinely thought it wouldn't happen.
It's very human to have a normalcy bias.

@RedToothBrush

There's a point that the European Jews who looked at what Hitler was doing and did their best to get out early were the ones with the best chance of survival. They saw and anticipated that their future where they were wasn't safe. They saw the risk, calculated it wasn't worth staying so moved, often leaving everything.

Yes, indeed, lots did, including singer/actor Olivia Newton John's family, her mother and grandfather being Jewish, lived in Germany until they moved to the UK in 1933 upon realising the growth and risks of the Nazi's.

There's a point that the European Jews who looked at what Hitler was doing and did their best to get out early were the ones with the best chance of survival. They saw and anticipated that their future where they were wasn't safe. They saw the risk, calculated it wasn't worth staying so moved, often leaving everything.

On 9/11 There was time to evacuate the second tower before it was hit. There was a veteran in the tower who had tried to get his company to move after the attack in 1993 because he recognised it was a high risk building. They didn't do this but he made his company rehearse and evacuation monthly which was hated. On the day of the attacks, the Port Authority told everyone in his building to stay put. He overruled them and ordered his company out. They all survived bar a handful. The handful were this guy and a number of others who went back to check everyone had got out. He saved hundreds of lives.

The denial, disbelief and the inability to comprehend what is happening rather than process and take action based on actual events and risk profiles is a very human one. Some people are better at seeing risk profiles than others and acting accordingly because they are willing to accept that yes, it really might go tits up with awful consequences.

This "oh it will never happen" attitude is one that I've never had the luxury of as an adult. I find it difficult to process tbh

Darwin selfies and videos are the ultimate example and becoming increasingly common due to this inability to identify personal risks and instead rubber neck rather than getting the head out of a situation.

People find it very, very hard to believe that things really can go alarmingly tits up. In their own lives as opposed to it happening somewhere else to someone else. I'm always amazed when you see people on the TV interviewed after some disastrous event saying - things like this don't happen round here.
Like they think they are immune, different, special.

History tells us otherwise.
Just the last hundred years or so:
World War 1.
World War 2.
The Holocaust.
The Balkans.
Syria.
The middle East.
9/11.
Covid.
And so on.
Every single one of those events was peopled with optimists, pessimists, and realists.

Being an optimist doesn't protect you from events. Being a pessimist doesn't make events happen.
Being a realist helps you prepare for many eventualities without panicking.
None of this is easy.
I've always tried to look reality in the face. It hasn't made for an easy, happy-go-lucky, sunny outlook. I'm old now. On the whole I'm glad I see things as I do.

My parents were mis-sold an endowment mortgage in the late 1980s / early 90s (not sure when they got the mortgage). They later got compensation but it was pitiful compared to how much it impacted their lives and how many extra years they had to work and what the impact was in their eventual retirement.

I learnt that you shouldn't trust anyone to necessarily be acting in your interests if they financially benefit. That was an important life lesson.

So what got me about 2008, is when the Northern Rock mortgage guy I mentioned about told us "well the bank wouldn't lend me that much if I couldn't afford it". Such was his belief that the bank had any interest in his welfare. We tried to say that wasn't the case.

I've talked about the oil stuff over the weekend and the possibility of shortages with friends. And there was the comment that "the government wouldn't let that happen". As if the government have the ability to stop a shortage or end the war in the middle east.

This is naive. It's a form of denialism which is routed in faith rather than previous evidence or likelihood based on current information. It troubles me when people start doing this. I hope it doesn't get that bad, but history tells us, unrest in the middle east can lead to supply shock and shortages and thus we should not dismiss the possibility with such ease.

COVID should have taught people that government can make good and bad decisions. And that sometimes they get it terribly wrong and the UK has demonstrated we have inadequate contingency planning in certain areas. If anything, we should expect it to be in a worse state giving tightening budgets. Contingency planning is often the easiest thing to axe, because it's expensive and might never be needed so is invisible.

I learnt that bad things can and do happen to ordinary normal people when I was younger than most. I'm a realist rather than a pessimist though. The distinction is important.

I didn’t say it was? Did you read the comment I was replying to?

@RedToothBrush we were in the same position in 2007, we were looking at moving out of rental into buying but as we had debt it would have been a 120% NR loan which at the time was an entirely acceptable thing to do (I was carrying post grad debt). I listened to those who knew more than I did and was very grateful when it all went tit's up, NR went to the wall and I was made redundant from my commercial property related career. We'd have been in a proper mess if we had bought.

As you say, everyone has choice, we were also stocked up ahead of covid which was good as we had an elderly parent with us who wasn't on the shielding list so we didn't get priority for home delivery- we were reliant on what we had in and the children of kind neighbours who shopped for us whilst we looked after their parents as the kids worked in the NHS.

What happens now won't be covd, it won't be 2008 but it will be its own scenario and I'd rather see it coming and do what I can. I was already concerned about weather related food inflation, the oil scenario amphlifies that concern.

I think Labour lost that election because he said that. Too many people did see through it.

@RedToothBrush

To then hear Gordon Brown saying "No one saw the 2008 crash coming" boiled my piss. Yes they did see it coming because huge numbers of traders bet on it happened and we effectively bet our house on it. He was either lying or grossly incompetent. Both are unacceptable and it made me very much mistrust government in terms of their ability to forecast, plan and protect us.

I agree. Brown just believed his own hype, and I do think he was incompetent in lots of ways, especially the way he flip-flopped around his tax cuts/hikes and the tax credits fiasco. I could scream when people say what a good Chancellor he was - no, he wasn't, he rode the wave of the ballooning financial markets pumping cash into the economy to give the illusion of boom, and then blamed everyone else when it all came crashing down because he'd made no contingency plans, and then worse, he made everyone believe he "saved" the World's economies! Utterly deluded fool. He looked good because so many Chancellors before and after him were even worse.

EU gas prices.

Risk. If you understand risk profiles you can see things others don't sooner.

One of DHs friend was a trader at the time in 2007. We had noticed things were off. His friend agreed and made us think. We were buying a house at the time. We made decisions based on this. We had a friend who was telling us to borrow more and look how much they could afford with Northern Rock. We told him, he was stupid and that was insanely risky. We did not say "I told you so" in 2008. He had enough shit to deal with and didn't need the gloating. I did not enjoy seeing it happen.

To then hear Gordon Brown saying "No one saw the 2008 crash coming" boiled my piss. Yes they did see it coming because huge numbers of traders bet on it happened and we effectively bet our house on it. He was either lying or grossly incompetent. Both are unacceptable and it made me very much mistrust government in terms of their ability to forecast, plan and protect us.

Also see Brexit. I have a long posting history on this which shows I saw the key issue being Northern Ireland long before most people - amongst other immovable problems related to practical implementation.

Also see Jan/Feb 2020. You could see events and the direction of travel in the news way before it happened. My friends laughed at me saying I was getting flour in. By early March people started to see the writing on the wall though. One of our friends had a birthday so invited us all for a menu out. That night we dubbed it 'the last supper' as we all said that the government would announce a lockdown imminently. I think it was either the next day or the one after it was announced.

The key is a number of different things converging together in a direction of travel. Get enough and eventually something breaks.

I feel really frustrated right now as it feels exactly the same. I feel in that weird limbo period not quite knowing what's going to happen but being aware something will break. Just not quite knowing what or how.

This is about having an understanding of supply chains and geo-politics and economics. I have a very good understanding of this. I look at real stuff.

I have long learnt to look for the gap between what is headline news and what is bubbling lower down on pages 36 or 37 (metaphorically).

There's a cascade effect that slowly gains speed.

Being optimistic doesn't stop bad shit. Things that can't be avoided with rhetoric.

The problem here is oil supply and demand. It's basic maths. If there isn't a supply of oil that meets demands you will have a problem. If tankers, refineries, storage facilities and pipelines are being being blown up whilst key routes are blockaded, it doesn't matter how optimistic you are - there will be a crunch point.

The Philippines has already faced a significant fuel shortage this year, which frankly I didn't really register.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Philippine_energy_crisis
The West avoided this because they could pay more for oil and because they had bigger reserves. Those reserves are getting low. JPMorgan has warned about this. We aren't talking about conspiracy theorists on social media. There's lots of other signs about there being low reserves.

The EU and UK need gas for the winter. Reserves should be at their highest for the year now. They are not. Martin Lewis is already warning that prices are significantly above the energy capacity, which means the capacity is probably unsustainable at its current level.

The problem here is shipping costs. If tankers are getting blown up in the blockaded areas, then insurance gets silly. If container ships have to go round the cape rather than through the Suez, fuel and insurance is going to go up there too. We get a lot of shit from China. Shut that's going to take longer to deliver. (Start your Christmas shopping early!) It doesn't matter how optimistic you are - there will be a crunch point. You can search how these have skyrocketed in the last couple of days if you wish.

The Middle East also supplies fertiliser. If there is a shortage of fertiliser this affects farmers and it then affects yields. This matters to food prices.

The last time there was a big squeeze on wheat prices, this resulted in the Arab Spring. Because people revolt. There are reports this morning of riots in Syria because fuel prices just went up. This isn't great because some of the alternative routes out of the middle east are by road through Syria.

This isn't going to immediately correct itself at this point even if all the wars stopped today. There's a lag in the system. Costs are going to go up. Even if there is a correction it will take time to do something.

The issue with the Saudi Arabian Yanbu storage, refinery and pipeline which is the port that was the alternative route from the Hormez really is significant.

So there is a problem here at least in the short term. A prolonged conflict means a higher chance of a major breaking point. And greater disruption.

We also have other economic issues converging at the same time.

The noise is that we have both a economic bubble/unsustainable economic situation AND a 1970s style oil crisis brewing. At the same time. Either could cause a cascade problem. Oh and don't forget it's an El Nino year so there's predictions of flooding.

Of course I might be wrong. I don't get everything right. I do see trends but not necessarily get it spot on. But flip this. What if I am just a little bit right? And what if I'm spot on?

The reason people reject this is purely because it's often frightening and because they don't want to face the consequences because it's really horrible.

Who wants to think that the holiday they've booked for next year isn't going to happen, they may lose their job or it's going to be a long cold, dark winter? I don't. I do get it. It's depressing.

But I'm starting to struggle to see none of these scenarios play out out. Too many high risk profiles at the same time.

I'm asking people to open their eyes and look at this themselves and decide accordingly. I am not saying 'the end of the world is nigh'. I am saying 'look at this risk profile, and decide how you want to react'. Doing nothing is an active choice you are free to make. That's not the place I'm in now though. I'm not full on prepping. There are limitations. But yes it is worrying me enough to say something here. I don't want to scare people as that's irresponsible too. People having basics can make bigger differences than you think though.

I think I could live off what's usually in my own kitchen for a good few months anyway!

The 2008 crash wasn't connected to a global oil/power crisis

Most risk assessments don't just like at likelihood but also impact.

If something is 20% likely but only going to have a low impact I'm less likely to do something compared to 10% likely to going to have a high impact. Then there is the effort for contingencies. If something is 5% likely, moderate impact but low effort to put contingencies in place.

As it stands, it isn't much effort for me to buy some extra supplies and ensure things are in good working order. So I'm going to do that. If it involved a large cost and effort I probably would give it a miss.

I stocked up in the run up to Brexit, I wasn't fearful of something disastrous but if there was enough of a disturbance to supplies that there was high prices and short stocks I would rather make use of the food I had in the house and avoid the hassle of the supermarket. Similar through COVID.

The 2008 crash didn’t leave the shops closed.

I saw this happen on a web forum months ahead of the 2008 crash, posters flagging the potential impact of the US subprime market and other factors. Posters who were involved in those industries and informed were trying to pass on information and being attacked for doom mongering- those of us old enough to remember know how that went!

If some don't understand the global risks then that's up to them, there ignorance shines through.

Quite the opposite.

I have said I hope I'm wrong. I mean this. Because if I'm right it has devastating consequences for all of us.

Is there part of you that hopes something bad will happen?

I guess we will find out soon enough won't we?

It is much more likely that nothing will happen.

AI needs energy to fuel the servers... Just saying.

So in the UK if we have no oil and gas and it rains all winter, we might be fine!

Anyway for those at the back still not paying attention:
https://x.com/capitolhunters/status/2099310894828126563

Anyone thinking, what's the big deal about the 4% cut in global oil production next week: that's the scale of the 1973 OPEC crisis and 1979 Iran war oil crisis. Each followed by a major recession. Prices & supply are global. Global oil stocks are already gone. It's a calamity. 1/

People seem bizarrely blase about this. Did we forget bad things can happen to us? 4% production loss is a global recession-producing event. Spiking prices will benefit Russia. Trump will use it to demand Ukraine surrender. What am I missing here? 2/

"This is one of the most severe energy supply situations in modern history." None of us will be untouched by this. 3/

Oil & gas folks are claiming Saudi Arabia is working 24-7 and no-expense-spared and can maybe get oil flowing again in a week. But the Saudis seem to have no defense against the drone attacks that took the pipeline out. This all seems very, very dark. 4/

As I have been saying on several threads now, this isn't a drill. There is due cause to be concerned and events mean it is sensible to follow the government advice.

I have been watching all weekend and think our chances of fuel rationing and potentially rolling blackouts this winter are probably fairly likely.

The impact on farming - inability to get fertiliser - also means food prices are going to go up, perhaps significantly. In some places in the world famine is likely. That's not the UK, but it is going to get difficult.

Each day the news gets worse. I will be watching the markets today - with the AI news combined with the oil news over the weekend, I'm expecting some significant tanking to go on. That's pensions being flushed down the drain. Interest rates are unlikely to stay out - they are going to go up. Possibly significantly.

Start taking this seriously. It's going to be a tough winter. Do not underestimate the news from over the weekend. It seems like this will now be hard to avoid.

After the Great Loo Roll Rush during Covid, I decided it’d be good to have a few supplies in. I have two large storage boxes, one with pasta, rice and dried food as well as some emergency stuff like candles, a solar charger, batteries and a few lanterns. Second box is my rotating box of tinned stuff - beans, soups etc. I also have two big containers of bottled water. I’m not going to go nuts on this - there’s just enough to feed and look after us for about 2 weeks if we ever needed it.

Boxes don’t take up much space and I think in general it’s a good idea.

Are you in the US? Guessing so from the spelling of license and references to cider? Cider is most definitely different in the UK!

Probably no point now AI is going to kill us all in the next few weeks!

With the news of what is happening with the Saudi pipelines things look like they are getting worse and worse. The impact of this will be significant. We are in for a rocky ride