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Lucy Letby (2)

644 replies

Oftenaddled · 30/07/2026 10:01

Not only the second thread of course, but maybe with them filling so fast it is time to start numbering them?

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EyeLevelStick · 15/09/2026 04:20

rubbishatballet · 14/09/2026 22:11

My reading of this is that they are withdrawing their report from the CCRC.

I have no clue what the bit about the professional engineering codes is supposed to mean. Complete word salad. Something about safeguarding Letby’s health and safety and also the victims’ families? Or something.

I’m not sure what’s difficult to understand.

C&S have a professional ethics code. They believe that their personal association with some of the defence’s arguments about insulin, which they believe not to be credible, contravene their code of ethics, so they must not be associated with it.

Moreover, C&S believe that the defence’s use of evidence that C&S believe to be unscientific is detrimental to Letby’s case. Whether or not this is legally accurate is immaterial: they believe it is harmful, so they are ethically bound to disassociate themselves from it, in Letby’s interests.

EyeLevelStick · 15/09/2026 03:43

Firefly1987 · 14/09/2026 22:22

@Frequency I read it, I get it. Don't worry I don't expect them to have the integrity to admit they got it all wrong and she's actually guilty. Lets not pretend this isn't a huge blow to her defence team though.

This is the usual black-and-white thinking from you.

Chase and Shannon still believe their work demonstrates a plausible, if not highly likely, explanation for the inverted insulin to c-peptide ratio. They still think that this means there is ample doubt of Letby’s guilt.

But first and foremost they are scientists who do not wish to have their reputations tarnished by association with what they believe are other unscientific arguments. For them, the science is everything and Letby’s situation is less of a concern.

McDonald et al can still use their paper as evidence.

And with reference to your other posts yesterday it’s “rein”, not “reign” in this context.

Oftenaddled · 14/09/2026 22:42

SereneFinch · 14/09/2026 22:30

I think they’re saying:

The prosecution claimed there was no non-malicious explanation for the insulin. They disagreed with that and still do.

But they don’t agree with the arguments the defence are putting forward to explain the insulin, for example, it occurred randomly. As that goes against the science.

No idea if they themselves have a possible explanation.

They believe they do have an explanation - they wrote a report for the defence and published an article on the science recently

Their argument was, very roughly, premature newborn babies process insulin differently so end up with more in their systems.

They're criticising the application of another argument, that immunoassay tests give false positives in certain circumstances, and that this is frequent enough to account for the results in this case. (They do seem to concede that it happens).

Both arguments could be true (different insulin processing and false positives). Or you could be looking at contamination, accidental administration, chain of custody issues, testing errors. The defence had at least four different reports on this issue and the babies affected. It's the problem that when you don't have the sample, you need to consider every way it could have gone wrong

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Oftenaddled · 14/09/2026 22:32

Firefly1987 · 14/09/2026 22:22

@Frequency I read it, I get it. Don't worry I don't expect them to have the integrity to admit they got it all wrong and she's actually guilty. Lets not pretend this isn't a huge blow to her defence team though.

Enough integrity to withdraw and criticise the defence, but not enough to say they were wrong with their hypothesis? That's a very delicate balance.

It all sounds to me like experts disagreeing (not unusually, particularly on statistics) with others outside their field. Maybe a hint that the defence is looking especially at mothers' conditions, medications etc, which would be consistent with other defence experts' work?

Interestingly, Chase and Shannon have published their work already, so there is nothing to stop anyone else from applying their principles to these cases if they are convinced by the methodology. But it was hyper-theoretical modelling, and I wonder if its main use didn't lie in its data sources, which again, anyone can still use.

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kkloo · 14/09/2026 22:31

rubbishatballet · 14/09/2026 22:11

My reading of this is that they are withdrawing their report from the CCRC.

I have no clue what the bit about the professional engineering codes is supposed to mean. Complete word salad. Something about safeguarding Letby’s health and safety and also the victims’ families? Or something.

I saw this wording, do you know if it's been posted somewhere officially?

It's the following sentence... it doesn't really make sense and seems like it's missing a word or two to me...

, "including withdrawing support for any representation our work endorses the defence team’s current scientific case"

Could they have meant "“including withdrawing support for any representation that suggests our work endorses the defence team’s current scientific case.”"

SereneFinch · 14/09/2026 22:30

I think they’re saying:

The prosecution claimed there was no non-malicious explanation for the insulin. They disagreed with that and still do.

But they don’t agree with the arguments the defence are putting forward to explain the insulin, for example, it occurred randomly. As that goes against the science.

No idea if they themselves have a possible explanation.

Firefly1987 · 14/09/2026 22:22

@Frequency I read it, I get it. Don't worry I don't expect them to have the integrity to admit they got it all wrong and she's actually guilty. Lets not pretend this isn't a huge blow to her defence team though.

Frequency · 14/09/2026 22:12

I'm not sure you understand what has happened @Firefly1987 . Chase and Shannon have not said they think Letby is guilty; in fact, they have publicly stated they stand by their belief that it is unlikely any babies were poisoned and that there are strong, reasonable doubts. They disagree with the way other elements of the insulin evidence are being handled, not their own report. They still do not believe the babies were poisoned.

Oftenaddled · 14/09/2026 22:11

rubbishatballet · 14/09/2026 21:31

If they stand by their work and still think it’s unlikely she murdered the babies I don’t get why they would withdraw, even if they don’t agree with some of the other experts.

I'm not sure myself, but that's definitely what they're saying, isn't it?

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rubbishatballet · 14/09/2026 22:11

kkloo · 14/09/2026 21:44

It sounds more like they're distancing themselves from the defence team but they are standing by their own work separately, and that hasn't been withdrawn from the CCRC, they don't seem to have asked for their report to be withdrawn and not considered, but then I can't see an official copy of the full letter.

My reading of this is that they are withdrawing their report from the CCRC.

I have no clue what the bit about the professional engineering codes is supposed to mean. Complete word salad. Something about safeguarding Letby’s health and safety and also the victims’ families? Or something.

Lucy Letby (2)
Lucy Letby (2)
kkloo · 14/09/2026 21:44

rubbishatballet · 14/09/2026 21:31

If they stand by their work and still think it’s unlikely she murdered the babies I don’t get why they would withdraw, even if they don’t agree with some of the other experts.

It sounds more like they're distancing themselves from the defence team but they are standing by their own work separately, and that hasn't been withdrawn from the CCRC, they don't seem to have asked for their report to be withdrawn and not considered, but then I can't see an official copy of the full letter.

isthisaplum · 14/09/2026 21:37

rubbishatballet · 14/09/2026 21:31

If they stand by their work and still think it’s unlikely she murdered the babies I don’t get why they would withdraw, even if they don’t agree with some of the other experts.

Because they don’t agree with a particular theory. It is probably a clumsy example, but I work in SEN. If someone says they feel a child is dyslexic and I don’t then I may disagree with that diagnosis; that doesn’t mean I don’t believe the child has SEN.

rubbishatballet · 14/09/2026 21:31

Oftenaddled · 14/09/2026 21:03

It's good that they took the opportunity to say they stand by their work and think it's unlikely Lucy Letby harmed the children. It would be very optimistic to assume everything would go smoothly with the CRCC / CoA right through the process, so for me this is neither a shock nor a huge disappointment - it's just the way things can go.

I think sometimes people confuse certainty that the conviction as it stands is unsafe with certainty that it will quickly and easily be cleared up - sadly that's not how things work.

I am hoping though that Thirlwall will come up with something genuinely helpful in our current maternity crisis, since her recommendations should bear a bit of weight. No predictions as to how that will go, but she can do some good with the 18.5 million and counting the Inquiry has cost so far.

If they stand by their work and still think it’s unlikely she murdered the babies I don’t get why they would withdraw, even if they don’t agree with some of the other experts.

Viviennemary · 14/09/2026 21:20

So what is actually happening. It's all very confusing.

isthisaplum · 14/09/2026 21:13

I don’t think it’s good or bad news. I’m not interpreting it in the way you are, which is probably because we differ in our opinions about her guilt. You are interpreting it as ‘two experts have withdrawn their support; as such, this adds evidence to the fact she is guilty,’ I’m interpreting it as the Guardian said, which is “although they stood by their assessment that it was “very unlikely” two of the babies were poisoned, some of the arguments being put forward on her behalf were “inconsistent with the available evidence, science and established physiology”.”

Even if you are on the same page as someone in a broad sense it doesn’t mean you’ll agree on everything. For example, many people who firmly believe Letby is guilty of the crimes she was convicted of also believe the notes were nonsense and should not have been used as evidence. For my part, I am firmly convinced of her innocence. I also think the storing of the handover sheets was peculiar behaviour. That’s a very basic sort of argument but is the best example I’m going to come up with.

There is absolutely nothing about her guilt in the article I have read: the opposite, in fact.

Firefly1987 · 14/09/2026 21:08

@isthisaplum what are you disagreeing with? It's just a fact this is not good news for camp Letby. It's also a fact that her PR company have had free reign to try and convince the public she's innocent for two years. Yes I'm happy that is finally at an end and we are at least getting news about her guilt again-it never should've gone on as long as it did to the point people were complaining whenever she's described as what she is in the newspapers-a serial killer of babies. Call it crowing if you like, but the gaslighting is finally over.

Oftenaddled · 14/09/2026 21:03

It's good that they took the opportunity to say they stand by their work and think it's unlikely Lucy Letby harmed the children. It would be very optimistic to assume everything would go smoothly with the CRCC / CoA right through the process, so for me this is neither a shock nor a huge disappointment - it's just the way things can go.

I think sometimes people confuse certainty that the conviction as it stands is unsafe with certainty that it will quickly and easily be cleared up - sadly that's not how things work.

I am hoping though that Thirlwall will come up with something genuinely helpful in our current maternity crisis, since her recommendations should bear a bit of weight. No predictions as to how that will go, but she can do some good with the 18.5 million and counting the Inquiry has cost so far.

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isthisaplum · 14/09/2026 20:54

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Firefly1987 · 14/09/2026 20:47

@isthisaplum Yes babies died, at her hands. And most of the population who have been swept up in the innocence circus can get back to facing that terrible truth and supporting the victims and their families in what they've had to go through. Because of her. Long overdue. How do you expect me to react? Say oh no what a shame, lets have a moment of silence for poor Lucy?

isthisaplum · 14/09/2026 20:31

Firefly1987 · 14/09/2026 20:06

Oh dear this is very bad news for Letby supporters isn't it? The pro-Letby campaign has had 2 years of free reign to put whatever nonsense they want out there and now reality is coming back to bite them.

I still believe she is innocent and so do the two experts who have stated that they cannot agree with the hypothesis put forwards.

Whatever the outcome, there are still children who needlessly died so I don’t think crowing and ‘nerr nerr’ is a great look tbh @Firefly1987 . I’ve said before that it’s odd you put yourself forward as the gatekeeper for showing the parents respect and then post things like that.

Firefly1987 · 14/09/2026 20:06

Oh dear this is very bad news for Letby supporters isn't it? The pro-Letby campaign has had 2 years of free reign to put whatever nonsense they want out there and now reality is coming back to bite them.

kkloo · 14/09/2026 19:59

I believe that Channel 5 have a new documentary out next week too.

Oftenaddled · 14/09/2026 19:54

FrippEnos · 14/08/2026 09:36

I am not sure how you know what I do or do not want.

But I will make it clear, I would like jutice for all involved.

That means that if LL is ultimately found guilty then so be it.

But it also means that I would like a trial where all evidenced is shown and not blocked by either the judge or the procecution.
This is all of the information that wasn't allowed at the first and second trial and any information found since.

If it is found that LL is innocent/not guilty that the health trust and who ever else was involved not only in the babies death but those protecting their arses are also brought to account and this includes the police, the consultants and your mate Dewi.

I think it's a pity to lose any expert input, but not unusual for scientists from different fields to disagree. There are three expert reports on insulin and we seem to have here a dispute concerning probabilities concerning two hypotheses. Without the underlying data, hard to comment as to which is likelier to have the right explanation - if either. That is the real problem with the insulin cases: they are never going to be proved as to who has the right explanation, because we don't have samples. All it will be possible to explore is whether the results as they stand can give certainty and whether the mechanism the prosecution proposed was possible. For a number of reasons, I don't think the court will need to adjudicate between Chase / Shannon (if referred to) and proponents of immunoassay interference to answer those questions

Looking forward to seeing what Thirlwall produces tomorrow

(Answered the wrong post there, sorry)

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isthisaplum · 14/09/2026 17:41

They said that although they stood by their assessment that it was “very unlikely” two of the babieds were poisoned, some of the arguments being put forward on her behalf were “inconsistent with the available evidence, science and established physiology”

I think insofar as justice is concerned that is the important part for me, but I recognise my own lack of knowledge on the science and medical aspects.

rubbishatballet · 14/09/2026 16:42

Reviving this thread, ahead of the Thirlwall Inquiry reporting tomorrow and in light of this latest development - https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/sep/14/experts-quit-lucy-letby-defence-team-scientific-credibility-concerns?CMP=share_btn_url

For what it’s worth I’m not at all surprised to read it, and have long argued that I didn’t believe Mark McDonald was serving his experts well. I also suspect Chase and Shannon won’t be the last experts to walk away.

I’m interested in what others’ thoughts are though?

Experts quit Lucy Letby’s defence team over ‘scientific credibility’ concerns

Some of the arguments inconsistent with ‘available evidence, science and established physiology’, say pair

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/sep/14/experts-quit-lucy-letby-defence-team-scientific-credibility-concerns?CMP=share_btn_url