How many kids have left the school? (VAT)

You mean the 20% increase on top of inflation? Yes I believe you’d be correct there,

It’s hard to know exactly how many families have left but the highest‑performing private school in our city is really struggling. The other two were already seeing a steep decline in numbers even before VAT was introduced.

Reception enrolment dropped by a third — they normally run three classes, but last year they only filled two. They even opened a nursery to try to offset the fall in numbers.

This year, they’re still heavily marketing nursery, reception and Year 1 places. In the past, it would have been unheard of for them to actively advertise Year 1 availability and applications for Reception would no longer be open.

They’ve scrapped the entrance exam for the Year 6 to Year 7 transition, which comes across as a sign of desperation to keep student numbers up.

Even the sixth form is being pushed hard, with marketing for scholarship placed targeted at pupils from the other two private schools.

Yes probably, especially when put together with all the other costs that have gone up.

As big a role as increasing the cost by a fifth midway through an academic year?

It’s only 3 more years until a general election, I’m hoping schools can hang in there until then.

Over 11,000 to over 13,000 pupils left independent schools in England by January 2025 following the removal of the VAT exemption, with some reports suggesting an exodus of over 25,000 across the UK. This drop,, ~1.9% of the sector, is roughly four times higher than government predictions of 3,000, causing severe pressures on local state schools.
Independent Schools Council - ISC
Independent Schools Council - ISC
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Initial Data: Department for Education (DfE) data shows 11,000 fewer pupils in English private schools compared to the previous year.
Sector Figures: The Independent Schools Council - ISC annual census showed a reduction of over 13,000 pupils by January.
Projected Impact: The government previously estimated only 3,000 to 14,000 pupils would leave, suggesting the actual impact is significantly higher.
School Closures: Several independent schools have closed, citing financial pressure from the tax change.

Quick Google search. Have not done a proper deep dive though to see if any of his is accurate.

I strongly suspect that cost of living also plays quite a big role in this. I don't find children needing to move schools at all heartbreaking though, just one of those things and really not as big a deal as to be considered heartbreaking.

I believe the VAT decision was deeply unfair. While some families can absorb the extra cost without difficulty, many others worked incredibly hard and made significant sacrifices to afford independent schooling for their children. A large number of these families have now had to move their children into state schools because there was simply nothing left to cut back on.

By imposing VAT, the government effectively removed that choice for many parents and penalised those who had already committed to this path. A decision as personal and important as a child’s education should never have been undermined in this way. The whole situation feels profoundly wrong. I dont understand how the government thought this was ok.

Some have left (but don’t know how many exactly). BUT, new intakes are the lowest they’ve ever been and there will be lots of empty chairs in September.

So far none, but a lot of the year group sat 11 plus for grammar places (over 50%) whereas previously it’s been around 15%. TBC how many will actually leave for yr7 (all through school).
School will not be in immediate danger however as the local non grammar provision is dreadful for secondary and won’t improve for a number of years and the head is not just an educator but also a pretty astute businessman.
The danger is that they have to close the reception and KS1 provision as I can see more people choosing “state till 8” as we did (actually we went longer but at DCs state primary a significant amount of kids migrated to private at the end of Yr2)

I think you are going to have show your workings on that please? It can’t possibly be a serious argument to claim that a 20% tax on children’s education along with the business rate increases on the schools themselves would not have a huge negative impact on independent schools. Wasn’t that the aim? The same people who championed the policies, voted to abolish independent schools a few years earlier.

Yes every party has said they will abolish it, apart from Labour and SNP (probably also the Greens but not sure). It’s just really low, nonsensical and counterproductive to tax children’s education. It’s entirely obvious it would and has lead to schools closing, I’m sure that was the whole point. To me this policy really summed up the ideology of resentment underpinning this Government,

This is it. Most would love heaven and earth to keep a settled child where they are, it’s the ones who will never start that will impact schools most heavily.

The number of kids taking the 11 plus has doubled locally. 3 schools have closed and the one closest to us has been bought by a private equity fund.

Yes. That is what I meant. But you have said it more clearly.

For fee paying schools in England, do they have to give bursarys? Do they count themselves as charities or businesses?

For one school up here it was found they only gave 1.6% of its gross income on funding for disadvantaged pupils. So they almost lost their charitable status and had to up it to 5.4%.

Both Yr 7 and sixth form entry down by about a third😬. Have been a few leave from varying year groups but I would never ask if their reasons were financial! Local state options are already full with little room for expansion. Really short sighted policy, but that’s apparently politics today - they seem to operate on short term strategy only.

We are in Surrey, where apparently 1 in 7 pupils go to independent school. We've lost several small preps over the past 5-6 years and the local reasonably priced all-through school has finally closed after struggling with retention and financial mismanagement since before the pandemic, leaving no local secondary options below £10k per term. Luckily it does not seem to have had any impact on the local (excellent) state secondary schools where rolls are stable. However our primary rolls have been dropping like a stone for a few years: our village infants school, rated excellent and oversubscribed until two years ago has just 16 starting in reception last September and one nearby village lost its infants altogether. This is going to be filtering through to the secondaries in the next few years and I expect multiple school closures in both the independent and state sector.

No, it states the excess decline is 3,400 students, however that may be explained by other factors and is not necessarily just due to VAT:

First, most of this decline in student numbers is likely due to overall declines in student numbers as low birth rates work their way through the education system. Once you subtract this expected decline, then the excess decline in student numbers is around 3400 pupils, a far smaller number which may itself be explained by many other factors.

According this LSE blog, the answer appears to be 3,400 kids have left private schools due to VAT.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/taxing-private-schools-wont-smash-the-class-ceiling/

Round here (expensive area) private school numbers have been dropping for years. I think some parents left during/after lockdown (depending on what year their child was in) as they felt they weren’t getting value for money. I know others who struggled with cost of living that would have sent their child to private school but didn’t, and that was before VAT.

We had a nearby private school close pre VAT, which some newspapers blamed VAT for, but the reality was it wasn’t a great school and had been struggling for years as a result.

I think the state education system in general has improved over the last 20 or so years, and going to private school has a lesser guaranteed outcome than it once did due to widening participation at universities etc. So for some families what would be doable with sacrifices is simply no longer worth it. And for some families what would have been affordable with sacrifices no longer is due to price increases.

I also know of one family who had been planning on sending their son for secondary school, but have chosen state instead with the plan of saving what would have been spent on fees to pay for uni and a house deposit. I’m not sure if that is particularly common although does seem sensible.

But as pp have said VAT is just one factor. If a school was failing because of low numbers, poor management then it would fail anyway. If the next Govt is not Labour, do you think they will abolish the VAT charges?

Yes, private schools have been closing for many years, I remember girls being transferred to our school from another in the same group in the mid 60's. Several independent schools with less good academic results closed in our area whilst my own children were at school.

Many well known and successful schools are funded partly from long-standing endowments or even private sources such as alumni. Schools with wonderful academic records in affluent areas have always been very over subscribed and, of course, they would never admit if they have had to lower their standards to keep up their admissions anyway.

When it comes to kids already at a school and needing to leave. When it comes to choosing not to start though surely it’s exactly the same?