I think we need to brace ourselves for the fact that, as with Brexit and Trump, the social media algorithms will promote Reform far more than they deserve, and that amplified messaging is likely to impact voting.
We live in a really dangerous time, where manipulation of social media is having a pervasive and often hidden effect on our ability to function as a democracy. There will be misinformation, scare stories, convincing AI inventions…
The problem is that social media impact is largely driven by negative emotions - it will be focused on creating fear and outrage, and they will drown out more moderate messages. That fear and outrage will be directed at the usual easy targets, those with the least power in society to defend themselves against it (particularly immigrants and asylum seekers).
You can be sure that the noise this generates will stop people looking at issues that I would argue are more important, from UK issues like huge wealth inequality, lack of social mobility and the gradual collapse in living standards of all but the very wealthiest in our country to more macro issues like climate change and the risks of AI and our children’s diminishing prospects of living decent, fulfilled lives.
The noise will also dissuade people from thinking too hard about the motivations of the disaster capitalists - from acknowledging that, much like Trump, Farage and his ilk are largely motivated by the opportunity that power brings for making them enormously wealthy - at the expense of the UK electorate.
In the face of all this, will we be able to heed the clear warnings from the US and recognise that this is not a path that will benefit ordinary working families?
As I see it, Reform will make most of the country (except for a very small elite) poorer and angrier.
When the time comes to vote again, people will look around them and wonder why it all went so horribly wrong. What’s left of Reform will stand there and tell them that it would’ve all worked, if only they had been allowed to be more Right wing, less held back by all the liberal, woke do-gooders - and then the whole merry dance will begin again.