Here is another way to look at the prisoner stats and it follows what Prof Alice Sullivan wrote in her letter that I posted above.
Regarding the % of male prisoners in UK with transgender identities. The figures that are in Hansard for the year ending 31 March 2024 had the figure that 151 of the 243 male prisoners in the UK prisons had at least one sex offence on their record.
The ratio changed from 43.3% (88/203) having at least one sex offence to their name at 31 March 2023 to 151/243 to 62.1% as at 31 March 2024.
The increase of the overall number of male prisoners with transgender identities in the UK prisons between 2023 and 2024 was only 42 yet the increase in the sex offenders was 63.
In 2019, there were 3.3% of female people in UK prisons were sex offenders. I haven’t looked up the stats since. But I wouldn’t expect this will be different. Last time I looked at the raw stats for female sex offences, they had remained stable numbers for a decade or more despite population growth.
For male people with transgender identities to have the same rate of committing sex offences, there would be 8 (3.3% of 243) prisoners with trans identities in the UK prison population with sex offences.
8
Not 151.
And if someone tries to suggest that the majority of these male prisoners have declared that they are women to gain access to the female prisons, I doubt this is true.
Considering the sex crime numbers for that prison population jumped from 88 to 151 male prisoners with a sex offence that declared they were women in a year (31 March 2024 to 31 March 2024) AFTER the publishing of the guidance in early February 2023, I seriously doubt these new prisoners are making declarations for the benefit of getting into the female prison.