To be worried there will be a war in Europe

Might be of interest to some and for info: Very recent Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) article on " Are We at War with Russia?...."

"Russia’s hybrid campaign against Europe since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine shows that war in the 2020s is not defined by the moment tanks cross borders. Conflict today is a continuum, one in which hostile states use non-kinetic, unattributable means to degrade the ability of an adversary to function long before conventional forces engage. The West still tends to treat these actions as ‘pre-war’, or something separate from conflict itself. They are not. They are part of an escalatory strategy aimed at undermining and degrading our deterrence logic. This makes it difficult to ascertain where Europe is on the ‘spectrum of conflict’ with Russia."

www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/are-we-war-russia-how-wardens-rings-map-russias-hybrid-strategy

I think wide spread civil unrest resembling a civil war is much more likely in Western European countries than a war with Russia. I’d put war at 1/10 and civil war at 4/10.

The idea of a hot war in Western Europe is farcical. Were it to happen, it would probably the last ever war as nukes would end up being used.

Russia is not a meaningful military power in any sense and, if the rest of Europe ended up retooling their factories to make weapons, Russia would be defeated very quickly (even without calling on the U.S. under NATO).

Will Russia test out our cyber defences and undersea cables? Probably.

It suits various people, especially the military, to pretend Russia is a meaningful threat, but they aren’t.

The Putin situation is horrendous. For the millions being forced to fight and those who have to counter it in Ukraine. Just awful.

The overarching picture will be China v US as pp said, and that will be about AI and rare minerals. People in the US will be ok as they can likely counter. EU / UK needs to spend more which they are being kind of forced to do.

It’s the AI race that US and China are working towards.

Trump honestly has decent foreign policy

@Iwantitidontwantit I think it's a good idea for us all to have some cash to hand

Haven't read the full thread but I've worked with managers like Trump who are on the side of the last person they spoke to with any sort of plausible argument. Hence the back and forth.
Mainly they want what's best for them and an easy life..

I think you are massively underestimating Trump here. Which is a common mistake. Most of the mainstream media seem to make no effort to actually look at the big picture of US policy, instead preferring to simply declare it stupid and wrongheaded.

It's differernt than what other people have done and out of the box, and maybe won't work, but it's wrong to say there is no strategic direction.

Heard this earlier -
news.sky.com/story/uk-rapidly-developing-plans-to-prepare-for-war-says-armed-forces-minister-13482403

Russia is in Europe. Ukraine is in Europe.
Russia invaded Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine are at war.
There is a war in Europe.

If you're asking about escalation, I'm worried, too. Mainly because so many of us are not ready for it, and I feel it is only a matter of time before it does escalate - and not much time, for that matter.

This is one of the areas where I think the current government are doing a pretty good job. They've meaningfully increased defence spending and, where there have been early decommissions/disposals, they've been on assets that are outdated and uneconomic to service and maintain - its necessary modernisation.

I'd probably rather they increased spending further and quicker, but increases in spending aren't exactly easy to achieve at the moment.

If we do go to war, we’re fuked because we’ve no weapons, ships or planes, dues to our pathetic governments past and present getting rid of everything 😡

Incidentally, the apparent divergence between US and European interests is something we could well see mirrored in the UK.

The reason Russia promoted Brexit, and has seems to have developed ties with Reform UK (or at least, various of its members) is because straining relations between the UK and the EU further weakens NATO.

Quite where that would leave the UK in terms of national defence, who knows. I assume it would become even further dependent on the US, which might suit the US for strategic purposes, or might come at a price (likely in terms of trade).

Certainly a lot of "divide" going on, whether and to what extent the "conquer" happens, who knows.

I'm not meaning to re-litgate Brexit, by the way. European nations don't have to be in the EU to be aligned on defence but, if the goal is to ultimately drive a wedge between one nation and the rest of Europe in the area of national security, separating them fiscally and regulatory is likely the necessary first step (and the rest doesnt have to follow).

I'm not a Conservative voter but a Tory win has never made me fearful for the UK's longterm national security. On that front, the prospect of Reform win scares the crap out of me.

Not technically it motto but yes, that's the basic premise - it is (was?) a military and political alliance between its member states, and can only act with the unanimous consent of its members.

That unanimity often requires the majority of members exerting a lot of diplomatic pressure on the others.

Even if every other member wanted to take a more aggressive approach against Russia, that isn't going to happen if the US (Trump) wont agree. Given that the US is by far the most powerful and important member, there's not really much pressuring that can be done.

So when the PP says:

"Trump is not the issue
....
USA does not want to get involved in other people's wars - that includes Europe
....
The issue is Nato which is weak
Russia committed an act of sabotage in Poland that is an attack on a Nato county
Noto response was zero"

that doesnt make a lot of sense. NATO's response is largely informed by what the US wants to do.

And why do you think the old gangster would demand that eh? Puzzles me....

There's only about a 1% difference between the proportion of Muslims in Italy vs the UK.

I don't think its about "allying" with Russia, so much as dividing the world up into "spheres of influence" - the US, Russia and China each having their respective geographical areas of control. So long as the US maintains military supremacy over Russia, I don't think Trump really cares what they do, and has no interest in continuing to bankroll the rest of Europe as a strategic ally against Russia (when resources could be spent on better bringing the rest of the Americas, and Greendland, under the US's heel).

It's not so much that we,or Western Europe will be invaded by the Russians. It's the fact that he will take down the old possessions of the Soviet Union/Russian Empire (all the same thing in the end), some of which are currently in the EU. All the rest of us will be vassals of Putin &/or his successors in a way that we never had to worry about before we suicidally brexited. By the end of my life, everything will have gone to ratshit because the 'electorate' are a load of dumbfucks who are so desperately complacent, it's like they don't understand anything except shopping & Strictly.

I was listening to the news on Radio 4 this afternoon, around 3 or 4pm, and being interviewed was someone representing the UK Government, I think he was military and he was talking very seriously about the number of covert attacks/sabotage being made on the UK by the Russians and pointing out that we were unprepared for an attack. He cited Ukraine a few years ago which seemed European and all hunky dory with infrastructure that worked, IT, energy supplies sorted, hospitals open and working and look at it now.
He may have been manipulating for more funds for his military budgets, he might have been either the Secretary of State for Armed Forces or the Minister but I was beyond chilled and scared by what he was saying, he repeated how serious the situation is and emphasised how lacking in allies we are now and how vulnerable.
Who knows but it didn't make me feel like we could be complacent. This is the worst scenario I've envisaged in my lifetime.

It's not really that simple.

The legality would be (at best) questionable and, if the EU does start allowing and conducting exporpriations, could well lead to other non-EU persons pulling their investments from the EU, devalue the Euro, and so could easily result in a net loss.

It would also, seemingly, aggravate the US - who are lobbying hard against the EU using those assets (presumably in part because the US wants all or some of them). If the EU did proceed, it could likely expect some form of retaliation (fiscal) from the US, as well as Russia.

The EU and the UK are between a rock and a hard place. They're there, in part, because of decades of complacency and, if it's possible for them to dig their way out, that'll take years/decades too. All they can really do in the interim is stall and hope...and "hope" really is the word, particularly when (US-backed) Russia UK are doing so well in the polls.

Who? Putin? You've got to be kidding!

Which is why Europe should have weaned themselves off the Yanks. The moment many of us dreaded has come. If Europe doesn't pull up it's big boy pants & get seriously behind Ukraine, there will definitely be a war in Europe & the good old USA won't lift a finger unless there's $$$ in it for them.

If it comes it's most likely going to be a cyber attack. Putin doesn't have the men or funds for physical war.

Putin absolutely hates the UK with a passion, that much is clear.

For the last 6 months I've started a store canned goods, water, battery power sources and most importantly cash. It won't last long at all, but would mean that if we did suffer a cyber attack we have about a weeks amount of stuff.

And if that makes me sound insane, so be it.

@Buffs I hate being put in a position where it looks like I'm defending the trumpton but in terms of thinking strategically I have seen a clip of him asking Germany etc why they are buying Russian oil years and years ago in his first term and to invest more in nato.

I don't think for one moment he's pal with Putin either nor would abandon us take on Putin.

I’m afraid we are starting to become the enemy of Trump as he sees us as a majority Muslim country now. I read that he is trying to make allies of Hungary, Poland, Italy and Austria. I’m going to assume because they’ve kept the pesky immigrants out. I don’t think he is particularly allying himself with Russia though. That wouldn’t make any sense.