To be worried there will be a war in Europe

Okay, some facts:
The EU's total GDP (nominal) is over five times that of Russia.
Russia (PPP): Around $6.91 trillion (2023 est.).
Germany: ~$6.02 trillion (PPP).
France: ~$4.36 trillion (PPP).
UK: ~$4.28 trillion (PPP).
Italy: ~$3.60 trillion (PPP).
Russia Population: ~144-146 million (most populous in Europe).
Europe Population (Continent): Over 750 million.

Russia has a huge population but GDP per head is significantly lower than that of Western Europe. It is in no position economically to win this war, yet it has put its economy on a war footing and decided to go on a propaganda war. With strategic allies of Trump and Farage, having helped engineer Brexit, it has already significantly weakened Europe's strategic position.

I think us Europeans are entirely too arrogant to admit to ourselves what is happening.

I was just in Tallinn where there were practice air raid sirens.

No wonder Putin feels emboldened when he can sit back and watch Europe seemingly voluntarily committing suicide. It's all very dystopian, odd and scary.

Europe isn’t rich.

They are similar to us. France needs to cut welfare payments and has had riots over it.

Most of Europe are similar. Russia is rich. It’s sitting on a shit ton of oil which it’s finding new markets for.

Trump is fed up with Europe free-riding on the US defence budget. And this is just true. Just because Trump says it doesn’t make it untrue. But rest assured there won’t be a war because with the exception of Poland, no country could field an army that could fight the Russians for more than a week. So mass capitulations all round with few shots being fired (Poland excepted). As for the British armed forces, as someone once said, the entire army could fit into Wembley Stadium and there would still be a third of it empty, while lefty lawyer Kier Starmer is more likely to sue the army than mobilise it. So don’t worry about conflict, but maybe start learning Russian.

Europe has relied on the USA for military backing for decades, and now we need to rapidly remobilise. Russia is skint and Europe is rich. Traditionally rich countries have needed to have an adequate military to defend that wealth, or they risk invasion.

Its of course a massive oversimplification, and the Ukraine issue is complex as well, being a former Soviet state. But Europe needs to heed the warnings.

As soon as I can get back on my laptop rather than my phone I would be more than happy to do so.

@Newbutoldfather

Could Russia meaningfully project force a long way from home?

Depends of what you define as meaningful..

Their submarine fleet is pretty much untested and despite Ukraine's best efforts a high percentage of the Russian long range air force remains operational...

I'd say they still have the capability to make eyes water a lonf way from the Motherland by non nuclear means, at least for a few hours, if Putin was so minded.

I know someone will be along in a minute to say ‘ no you’re wrong, Trump is the one to worry about’ it’s pretty absurd really.

Honestly I agree. Trump's the complete opposite of that. He's been going full force on deportations and being tough on crime.

This. Russia’s war is a shadow one, and it’s using strategy first employed by the Soviet Union, updated for the present day.

As an aside, If anyone wants insight into Russian tactics I would recommend the Mitrokhin Archive.

I genuinely don’t think Russia wants all of Ukraine, or the old Republics. I think it suits Russia to stoke those fears though, and sow confusion, as it puts them in a better position to ‘settle’ for keeping NATO off the border, and retaining the regions they already have control of, the territory they wanted in the first place.

The Donbas is the industrial heartland, and very important for the economy. It’s also the traditionally ‘pro Russian’ area, as in it’s Orthodox and was/is largely Russian speaking. Western Ukraine, parts of which used to belong to Poland until ww2, isn’t as appealing.

Allowing mass and undocumented immigration, two tier policing, custodial sentences for tweets, non custodial sentences for violence when perpetrators have protected characteristics, continued grooming gang cover up, tax burden on families to move towards state allocation of resources, removal of tax free non state education options, blasphemy laws through the back door, tighter grip on housing allocation, enforcing IDs, not allowing local elections …..things like that. Small monthly changes that over time will drastically change how you live your life.

How can they go doing it every day inch by inch?

They’ve in power 17 months.

How are they doing this exactly?
I don't know who else you have in mind as an alternative right now but MAGA/Russia puppets won't improve our way of life in the UK, that's for sure.

Exactly this. We have much more pressing issues than Russia to ending our way of life, our own Government do it every day inch by inch.

How are we supposed to defend Ukraine when our politicians don't seem to be able to defend our own borders? And there doesn't seem to be much urgency in increasing defence spending if the last budget is anything to go by - funding increasing welfare seems to be more important.

Russia must think they have already won the war considering how disorganised and chaotic Europe and the UK look right now.

Possibly they’re behind it, it wouldn’t be the first time a bad actor has used migration to try and destabilise states.

@Lemonfrost ,

That isn’t really a meaningful refutation.

Care to explain further?

Can you really see a land war in NATO countries?

Do you not think that, if that ever happened, it would fairly certainly lead to nuclear war?

Could Russia meaningfully project force a long way from home?

This.

The hysteria on this thread!

What bit about this post isn’t correct?

Sorry but barely any of this is correct.

Russia can’t go to war with Ukraine. With truly no offense to Ukraine, who have been incredible - if Russia can’t win in Ukraine, it can’t win against Europe, or even a US-less NATO. A lot of indicators that suggest Russia’s economy is in big trouble, too.

That said, it’s no time to be complacent. Ukraine needs full EU support and sadly defence spending has to increased everywhere.

The Gaza peace plan?

Historically, were "due".
Europe only? Doubt it
Trumps messing up everything, EVERYWHERE.

But then you'd find that the agitators pushing for civil unrest would include many Russian puppets.