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To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

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DarkPassenger1 · 21/09/2025 11:00

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families.

I just want to point out, that it is not necessary to have children to be a family.

A couple is a family. A group of three best friends that live together is a family. A single person with their dog is a family. Family is what you make of it. The notion that 'family' automatically requires having kids is pretty offensive in this day and age, I say that as a parent.

Ultimately we're in a world where you need to work hard and study throughout your twenties in order to have a hope of earning the kind of income that will support having children, so of course people are having kids older and some miss the opportunity altogether, as well as plenty of people now feeling able to be open about not wanting kids, and having access to medication/procedures to ensure that. It's much easier for a childfree person to find another childfree person online, so fewer 'I'd prefer not to have kids but I guess as the partner I've found really wants them I'll have one'.

I think there's a true social issue also of men especially waiting until they're much older before being ready for kids, inevitably they will then want to find a younger woman who has childbearing years ahead of her. Meaning some older women approaching their late thirties/forties who'd love to have had kids aren't chosen, so to speak. Out of the women I know who don't have kids in their forties, the majority of them wanted them, but just didn't find a man happy to have them with her in time. It's Peter Pan syndrome in a way. In years gone by it was normal to couple up in your late teens and early twenties, marry (inconceivable to plan kids without marriage!), and have your first child by mid-twenties. Modern men are well aware that their bio window for having kids is much longer than for women and can afford to enjoy being footloose and fancy free for a long time before finally having children.

There's much more awareness now for women of the domestic load, of weaponised incompetence, of not relying on a man. Many won't settle just to get a baby. They know that life solo can be fulfilling and a man has to bring more to the table than just sperm in order for it to be worth giving up what she already has.

And many of us have heard from our mothers 'don't do it. Don't have kids. It's not worth it'. And we're a generation that can actually choose.

Rewis · 21/09/2025 10:57

There are no benefits for women for having children. The society has to change first for women to have kids. This includes that men have to change.

padso · 21/09/2025 10:55

Migration will only rise in the future as climate change makes more areas of the world less habitable

That's why I see increased international conflict. Countries that are younger aren't going to understandable settle for fewer resources and the west will have less power so won't be able to hoard so much

OneAmberFinch · 21/09/2025 10:50

I watched this documentary some years ago and it was very influential in getting me to bring forward my baby timeline. Now TTC#2 at the time I would originally have been TTC#1 on my original timeline :)

DC1 is the light of my life and was the best thing that I ever decided to do. Despite all the annoyances of parenthood (I've spent this morning with a crying toddler who woke up at 5am and has only just now gone for a nap) I would do it again in a heartbeat and wish I had started at 28 instead of 32.

My explanation for waiting: I honestly just didn't know anyone with babies and the people around me were either childfree or planning kids at 35+. I was afraid of losing all my friends. It felt like a huge leap in a way it wouldn't have if my friends were having kids at the same time.

TheAmusedQuail · 21/09/2025 10:45

BiologicalRobot · 21/09/2025 08:11

Oh dude...

How vomit inducing is that post, and your attitude is exactly the reason so many women are saying no. Men should be stepping up because it's the right thing to do. Why aren't they? Because they are porn addled selfish fuckers who are a waste of space usually.

Exactly. It's pandering to a cock. In order to have a child with the cock who will continue to be obsessed with its cock and not want to do the laundry or pick up their child if its crying.

Not appealing. At. All.

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 21/09/2025 10:44

I saw that but then went and looked at the ONS figures - % of women who had no kids has gone up a few % points big change was the huge rise in just two kids - 3 used to be just as usual - and a rise in onlys though still below 2 kids.

Not sure why this seemed to be missed in the documneatry - perhaps it didn't fit the narrative being pushed.

Also age of parenthood has been rising - first time age of mothers in UK is I think 29 - some of that is the steep decline in teernage pg - which most think is a good thing - but also high housing costs and insecure job markets. Some of demographers think what will happen is women will have one or two kids ar older ages but if two or more closer together.

https://www.ft.com/content/315f7420-104a-40f5-ad2e-12520cb095ad
Chile counrty with fasted declining fertlity now.

Chile’s plummeting births take fertility rate below Japan’s

Social mobility and high living costs contribute to 42 per cent drop in rate over past decade

https://www.ft.com/content/315f7420-104a-40f5-ad2e-12520cb095ad

bombastix · 21/09/2025 10:40

It’s just the same old push for barefoot and pregnant, and because women have a degree of choice.

Social media literally has two forms of meme on this, the trad wife who has elaborate domestic planning to the point of a mental breakdown and then the other is a woman who starts to have visions of domestic drudgery as the man places the engagement ring on her finger and eventually runs away after feeling physically sick.

I have children but I have friends who don’t. Their lives are impossibly easy compared to mine in financial terms, and probably emotionally too. Social media makes that very clear to young women.

MyFortieth · 21/09/2025 10:39

Friendlygingercat · 21/09/2025 00:25

I can remember when women who decided to be child free were called insulting names like "old maid" or "spinster". You never hear these terms now and they have become as unacceptable as the "N" word. Now that the choice to be childfree carries minimal stigma many women are looking at the shitshow which is childbirth and parenting and rejecting it. I decided age 11 that I wanted no children and have never wavered from that sensible decision. I did not see how children were going to serve my interests in any meaningful way.

This is a real double edged sword post. On the one hand from an individual financial point of view it is sensible, but from a societal point of view it is catastrophic; As you age you will be depending on others to have had children to provide essential services to you.

Gnarab24 · 21/09/2025 10:39

Again, purely anecdotally, but of the female friends I have only one had a child under 28, everyone of us has children now that we’re in our late 40’s-50’s

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 10:35

padso · 21/09/2025 10:32

Educated more affluent women having children mid to late thirties and less educated women from less affluent social groupings having children in their teens and early twenties bringing an average to about 30 makes mathematical sense to me. But I’m happy to wrong.

There really aren't lots of teenage pregnancies anymore & the majority of women don't have multiples of children.

That’s fine if that’s the case. I really was just assuming a mathematical case for a person having a child at 40 and another at say 20 that the median age would be 30.

I know women are having children later so it made sense to me that the median would also shift later.

In my defense I don’t live in the UK and unfortunately teenage pregnancy is not a problem that is under any sort of control here.

Blinky21 · 21/09/2025 10:34

padso · 21/09/2025 10:33

But there aren't too few people in the world, and that's why immigrationto countries like ours is do important and I think will be more so in the future to ensure we have essential workers.

Immigration is not that popular at the moment...

Yes which is why there needs to be a rational approach to it rather than the sensationlist nonsense we are seeing. Migration will only rise in the future as climate change makes more areas of the world less habitable

padso · 21/09/2025 10:33

But there aren't too few people in the world, and that's why immigrationto countries like ours is do important and I think will be more so in the future to ensure we have essential workers.

Immigration is not that popular at the moment...

padso · 21/09/2025 10:32

Educated more affluent women having children mid to late thirties and less educated women from less affluent social groupings having children in their teens and early twenties bringing an average to about 30 makes mathematical sense to me. But I’m happy to wrong.

There really aren't lots of teenage pregnancies anymore & the majority of women don't have multiples of children.

Blinky21 · 21/09/2025 10:31

But there aren't too few people in the world, and that's why immigration to countries like the UK is so important and I think will be more so in the future to ensure we have essential workers. I personally think it's refreshing that the younger generation is questioning having children, unlike previous generations where it has just been the expected norm, lots of people have children as it's conventional and arguably could have had much more fulfilling lives pursuing other things

chipsticksmammy · 21/09/2025 10:31

I’ll be honest, having children IN THIS ECONOMY is a nightmare. Especially in the UK.

Money, decent child care and the general state of the country and the environment are just some of the factors I can think of.

If I was 30 now, I would never do it.

Oh and men. The horror stories never stop from my friends and family.

DoinFineIThink · 21/09/2025 10:30

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 10:24

Just as a note, in Russia (where domestic violence laws were repealed some years ago) is now talking about making a law so that married women can't buy condoms.

Sad
DoinFineIThink · 21/09/2025 10:30

@Agapornis
The degree to which they're bombarding forums and social media is pretty sinister. They are coming after women's rights, so we'd all better look out

I've noticed that over the last couple of years, but you either feel paranoid for noticing it, or if you mention it you end up getting pooh poohed.
Things like women not going out by themselves, why it's not safe to, separate carriages and transport for women, but it's always been there under the surface. These are more blatant and in your face obvious, so it's interesting other people seem to be seeing it now as well.

chipsticksmammy · 21/09/2025 10:28

SquirrelosaurusSoShiny · 21/09/2025 00:32

Dude, you are giving me seriously creepy vibes.

Shudders

This.

I am calling troll or Tate.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 10:24

Just as a note, in Russia (where domestic violence laws were repealed some years ago) is now talking about making a law so that married women can't buy condoms.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 10:23

latetothefisting · 21/09/2025 10:22

But teenage pregnancy has been steadily declining and has been very low for least the last decade? I grew up in a very working class area, still have most of my school year on social media and can think if maybe 2 or 3 girls who had kids by the time they were 19, and that was one child not multiples.

Also that wouldn't explain the average age of 31 for first child stat which comes from the ONS and is based on the whole of England and Wales

Whereas your views (and stats) seem hugely outdated. You can't even back it up other than "someone" said it in "an interview".

Edited

I haven’t given any stats or spoken of any interviews.
You may have the wrong poster. I just made an assumption that different ends of the social scale may bring the average age to somewhere around 30.

latetothefisting · 21/09/2025 10:22

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 10:15

Your data is probably offset by the number of girls who are unlike your cohort who have multiple babies before they are 19.

But teenage pregnancy has been steadily declining and has been very low for least the last decade? I grew up in a very working class area, still have most of my school year on social media and can think if maybe 2 or 3 girls who had kids by the time they were 19, and that was one child not multiples.

Also that wouldn't explain the average age of 31 for first child stat which comes from the ONS and is based on the whole of England and Wales

Whereas your views (and stats) seem hugely outdated. You can't even back it up other than "someone" said it in "an interview".

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 10:22

padso · 21/09/2025 10:19

Your data is probably offset by the number of girls who are unlike your cohort who have multiple babies before they are 19.

You think there are a lot of these?

Enough to bring the data to some sort of median age of 30.

Educated more affluent women having children mid to late thirties and less educated women from less affluent social groupings having children in their teens and early twenties bringing an average to about 30 makes mathematical sense to me. But I’m happy to wrong.

padso · 21/09/2025 10:19

Your data is probably offset by the number of girls who are unlike your cohort who have multiple babies before they are 19.

You think there are a lot of these?

padso · 21/09/2025 10:18

We will need a new economic model for pensions, obviously, but other than that this is no bad thing.

It's not just pensions though! the NHS won't exist in its current form. We don't even have enough suitable housing to cater for the changing demographics.

Agapornis · 21/09/2025 10:18

LeftMyScarfThere · 21/09/2025 01:40

If people are wondering where posts like this are coming from, it's the pronatalist movement emerging from the American right. It goes along with tradwives and is inherently misogynistic - I mean, the OP has adequately illustrated that for us. I wanted to barf when he included something about 'the mating window' at the end of his first post.

The degree to which they're bombarding forums and social media is pretty sinister. They are coming after women's rights, so we'd all better look out.

Indeed - wish we had community notes or could pin your post to the top as a warning. I want to see actual scientific data rather than interviews and ChatGPT generated crap. Bet the commentary was sponsored by Musk etc al. And birth rates are known to go down as women become more educated. More children = fewer opportunities for women.