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To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

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Catpuss66 · 21/09/2025 13:53

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 06:28

It’s such a paradox isn’t it. The people who should be having kids aren’t.

I agree as a childless person who was working for 30+ yrs in maternity care. I always thought how are these women allowed to reproduce, they didn’t want children but it was the only thing they could do. The men including married ones had very little input with the children or wives. My friends all non working stayed with husbands that cheated all the time, children gave women that passport, that was the choice they made.
i am sure witnessing these relationships had an effect on me having children I would have loved children in my 20’s & 30’s even thought about doing it alone but realised that was a selfish need. The men in my life were infantile not capable of working the one in my 20’s by 30 had never worked a day in his life, in my 30’s other one was an alcoholic prolific cheater.
Things need to change women need to be taught what is a healthy relationship, men need to be taught how to be a good mate & father & if not the effect it has on women & children in thier lives. If something doesn’t change the family unit is doomed.

Ally886 · 21/09/2025 13:48

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:09

There was a suggestion in one interview that government needs to step in and tell young women it will have their back if men let them down, in order to persuade them to have children at a younger age.

Though it was also asked, what would you rather be at 50: a divorced childless women, or a divorced woman with children? Maybe the risk of a bad man is worth taking, if you want children enough. Not for me to say.

I'd prefer to be divorced and childless. Imagine losing your financial safety net and then having to support your children on a lower household income. No thanks

OneAmberFinch · 21/09/2025 13:48

FlowerUser · 21/09/2025 13:14

I think we've infantilised our children so that they're not very mature when they leave school. Men see no reason to settle down while they have their game consoles and can live at home, often rent-free.

Marriage and fatherhood is no longer swapping your mum's house for your wife's, and being waited on hand and foot. Men have to pull their weight domestically and they don't feel like it till they're about 33 if you're lucky.

Women get with said 33 year old and it takes 2-3 years to get serious and have a home together, potentially a wedding and kids. At which point they split up before the kids and a woman has a few months to get over it, then another 2-3 year relationship before she has children. If she was 30 when she met the 33 year old, she's now 36 before she has her first child.

Seriously Gen Z men need to grow up if they want kids because no woman wants kids and a childlike partner.

I agree with this and I think a huge part of the reason for the failing-to-couple up aspect is driven by men not being worthy of being partners.

I do think we let down our daughters in a different way by failing to advise them on how to select a man. We do a lot of "ahh follow your heart" and "pursue your passions, build your career, and the right man will come along" and "don't be desperate, you sound really calculating, you should only marry for love".

This also includes the stages of relationships. What extra information do you gain in years 2-3 that you didn't know about the person in year 1? It's one thing if it's your school/uni sweetheart - makes sense to wait a few years to see how his adult character develops, and early 20s is still quite young - but 30/33yos plausibly could marry within 1-2 years of meeting each other even allowing time to organise a wedding. But again "don't even hint that you want marriage and kids until 2 years in or you'll look desperate, bit soon love".

I have several friends who didn't want kids, marriage etc but looking at the childish guys they were dating (for years at a time) it was no wonder. I think we should encourage women to either be properly single or to look intentionally for a strong partner - to assess as if he's going to be a father and provider, even if you intend to have a 50/50 marriage or might not have kids. Shacking up with these childlike gamer types gives them no incentive to ever grow up, and doesn't give you what you want either (an actual grown-up partner).

Quandri · 21/09/2025 13:45

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

You’re a creep.

L00n · 21/09/2025 13:42

padso · 21/09/2025 09:54

World population 1900 was around 2 billion.world population is still growing and estimated to hit 9 billion within a few decades.its not sustainable. So I hope the birth rate continues to drop

But won't the population still grow because people are living longer?

They will soon stop living longer when there aren't enough working age people to staff the various services which facilitate those extended lifespans.

WearyAuldWumman · 21/09/2025 13:35

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 21/09/2025 13:05

my own experience of child-free women in my circles, I’d question the stat that 4 out of 5 women without children are involuntarily childless

Me too.

Oddly enough I could believe that if it was about men - because they just don't seem to get the same messaging as women and it's only recently become clear older men do increase some risk to offspring.

I've seen a few interviews and known a few men who seem surpirsed how late it is to have kids in mid to late 40 or even early 50s.

My late husband was from Aberdeenshire. One of the less kind sayings from his area was used to refer to someone who had an older father: "Aye. He's the shakins o an auld man's bag..."

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 13:15

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 12:59

@OldOrMaybeNotThatOld where is 'here' if I may ask?

South Africa, where teenage pregnancy is a symptom of a multitude of social failures. Lack of education, manipulation of younger girls by older men, gbv, children as a means to access government grants. We very much have a problem with too many people and not enough resources or government will to provide a solution. Children are born into poverty and the cycle is repetitive.

FlowerUser · 21/09/2025 13:14

I think we've infantilised our children so that they're not very mature when they leave school. Men see no reason to settle down while they have their game consoles and can live at home, often rent-free.

Marriage and fatherhood is no longer swapping your mum's house for your wife's, and being waited on hand and foot. Men have to pull their weight domestically and they don't feel like it till they're about 33 if you're lucky.

Women get with said 33 year old and it takes 2-3 years to get serious and have a home together, potentially a wedding and kids. At which point they split up before the kids and a woman has a few months to get over it, then another 2-3 year relationship before she has children. If she was 30 when she met the 33 year old, she's now 36 before she has her first child.

Seriously Gen Z men need to grow up if they want kids because no woman wants kids and a childlike partner.

LGBirmingham · 21/09/2025 13:11

EasternStandard · 21/09/2025 09:08

Seems like a good time to stop relying on population increase every decade and use AI / tech to help deal with the decrease.

Agreed

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 21/09/2025 13:05

my own experience of child-free women in my circles, I’d question the stat that 4 out of 5 women without children are involuntarily childless

Me too.

Oddly enough I could believe that if it was about men - because they just don't seem to get the same messaging as women and it's only recently become clear older men do increase some risk to offspring.

I've seen a few interviews and known a few men who seem surpirsed how late it is to have kids in mid to late 40 or even early 50s.

DownThePubWithStevieNicks · 21/09/2025 13:00

ThreeFeetTall · 21/09/2025 04:16

This is a radical feminist position. That liberal feminism has basically ended up with a life pattern that apes men (years at uni/establishing a career) when actually men and women should prioritise women’s biology and have babies at say19/20 and then have uni with full childcare provided etc in late 20s onwards.

you don’t need to be a trad wife to have more babies

No radical feminist I’ve ever read makes this argument!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 12:59

@OldOrMaybeNotThatOld where is 'here' if I may ask?

DownThePubWithStevieNicks · 21/09/2025 12:54

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:09

There was a suggestion in one interview that government needs to step in and tell young women it will have their back if men let them down, in order to persuade them to have children at a younger age.

Though it was also asked, what would you rather be at 50: a divorced childless women, or a divorced woman with children? Maybe the risk of a bad man is worth taking, if you want children enough. Not for me to say.

If Mumsnet is at all indicative, there are plenty of women for whom a rubbish partner is a price they are willing to pay to have children. Maybe not entirely consciously, but for many women the desire for children is obviously stronger than the desire for a truly equal partner.

For that reason, and my own experience of child-free women in my circles, I’d question the stat that 4 out of 5 women without children are involuntarily childless. It seems to me that for many women with independent prospects, children and a potentially crap partner hold very little appeal.

OutsideLookingOut · 21/09/2025 12:51

RingoJuice · 21/09/2025 11:18

I think this must be a selection thing, in that you wouldn’t marry a man unhealthy or with poor employment prospects. I mean, why would you?

It may be part of it but I think studies have shown fathers are seen as more deserving of pay. Like beforehand not so much then on the birth of the first child... boom, deserving. Now is that because they are naturally just more talented? It appears unlikely to me. It wasn't too long ago that people thought women working was taking jobs from "good" men. We have an implicit bias.

Wednesdaysotherchild · 21/09/2025 12:42

Had mine at 43!

I wanted kids age 27 but had to break up with a guy who didn’t want kids by 33 and I didn’t meet a man who wanted kids until 35!

ChihuahuaKeeper · 21/09/2025 12:41

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 09:27

Sure. She is on her 3rd marriage and it’s on the way out. 5 children with 4 different fathers. She doesn’t have a man problem she has a business plan.
Definitely not a me problem.

I now understand your view. She sounds selfish. Why bring innocent children into the world without nurturing and protecting them? You're obviously upset for the children, but you're providing the stability for them. Use all your energy on them, rather than wasting it on the mother with an agenda. They're fortunate to have you and your husband.

2boyzNosleep · 21/09/2025 12:40

Grammarnut · 21/09/2025 11:15

I think we do, since birth rates everywhere are not at replacement level. Those who think humans are an infestation might be pleased at that, the rest of us see the economic and social repercussions.
Mind, the birth rate will probably go up again before total crisis is reached. It would be helped by building work, qualifications etc round women's biology rather than mens. Also, we might have to understand that obligations to others are not just for when you fancy keeping them, but have an input into society and family as well.

I dont think anyone views humans are an infestation.

We've constantly been warned that:

  • the world is over populated

-many countries have economical housing crisis

-intensive farming has resulted in soil having no nutrients making it difficult to grow enough food that is nourishing

-capitalism has resulted in irreversible climate change due to the sheer amount of pollution, farming/hunting animals to extinction

  • catastrophic weather events resulting in difficulties growing food for humans and livestock globally

-climate change will increase immigration

-People are struggling to get jobs as they are being overtaken by technology/AI, or jobs are given to people with more experience (think of many newly qualified nurses struggling to get jobs)

Then on the flip side:

  • the birth rate is falling globally so we need more migration and babies.

Of course there are huge economical and social repercussions coming, but more needs to be focused on the long-term issues that are inevitable, instead of politicians worldwide sticking their head in the sand and hoping more women will have more babies.

SuffolkSun · 21/09/2025 12:40

@anon666

It's very sad, and in the case of the white British people in London - has almost led to their extinction. 90% of the primary school population is born to mothers borm abroad. If it weren't for this ability to attractpeople from overseas, the capital would be a ghost town.

That particular statistic (primary school children with mothers who were born overseas) isn't collected, so I'd be interested to know where you think the demonstrably untrue fantasy of "white British extinction in London" comes from. And why you've got up early on a Sunday to parrot a far-right lie.

OneAmberFinch · 21/09/2025 12:36

LemondrizzleShark · 21/09/2025 12:05

The ONS stats are that 60% of children born in London in 2023 have at least one parent born overseas. And it is possible to be British and not white, or foreign and white. Or white British and born overseas - look at Boris Johnson.

(I am agreeing with you not arguing with you)

60% of children born to mothers born abroad, not counting children born to 2nd/3rd generation immigrants i.e. not part of a "white British" ethnic group, is an absolutely astoundingly high number regardless of how you try to spin this. That's a rate of demographic change virtually unprecedented in stable societies in history.

I think children are a blessing regardless of the race of the parents having them, but this minimisation of massive population change is a bit odd.

CSR721 · 21/09/2025 12:35

Thats really interesting. I was the first of my friend group to have a baby, I was 30. Nearly all of my friends have gone on to have children in their early 30s

GetOffMyLan · 21/09/2025 12:34

Some people just don't want children and that is completely their choice. I got together with my husband mid 20s, we have always had good jobs and been financially comfortable and I have always known that I will never want kids. Everything about it looks so, horrifically unappealing. This however hasn't always been the case and many women have felt forced to have kids that they don't want. That pressure is no longer there anymore and hallelujah for that, women can make their own choices about their lives, all over the world. Sounds great to me.

WeeGeeBored · 21/09/2025 12:32

padso · 21/09/2025 07:10

women changed, they go to work, take much of the financial load nowadays, men not so much - it’s your turn now, share the load, step up, judge differently

This is the crux of it really, women have evolved and stepped up. Many men haven't and women don't need them.

This is so true!!!

SuffolkSun · 21/09/2025 12:12

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

Tell us you have perpetual arrested development, have never bothered (or weren't capable of) moving beyond treating dealings with others as transactional and believe the fact you've failed to sustain any long-term relationship with an opposite-sex partner is somehow women's fault - without telling us.

If you want to understand why birthrates are falling because women, specifically, are chosing not to have children I'd suggest that you seek out documentaries, articles, podcasts made by women, which go deeper into the many facets of the issue than a doc made by a man who believes "divorced with children/divorced without children" is the only (frankly absurd) metric on which to assess happiness at 50.

LemondrizzleShark · 21/09/2025 12:05

padso · 21/09/2025 09:12

It's very sad, and in the case of the white British people in London - has almost led to their extinction. 90% of the primary school population is born to mothers borm abroad.

You can argue that there has been some white flight but there are a number of reason for that. Extinction?! That statistic isn't true

The ONS stats are that 60% of children born in London in 2023 have at least one parent born overseas. And it is possible to be British and not white, or foreign and white. Or white British and born overseas - look at Boris Johnson.

(I am agreeing with you not arguing with you)

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