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To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

OP posts:
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ParmaVioletTea · 21/09/2025 15:39

I think there's a true social issue also of men especially waiting until they're much older before being ready for kids, inevitably they will then want to find a younger woman who has childbearing years ahead of her. Meaning some older women approaching their late thirties/forties who'd love to have had kids aren't chosen, so to speak. Out of the women I know who don't have kids in their forties, the majority of them wanted them, but just didn't find a man happy to have them with her in time. It's Peter Pan syndrome in a way.

This.

Men need to take responsibility, not women.

bombastix · 21/09/2025 15:23

Kinder, Küche, Kirche

OneAmberFinch · 21/09/2025 15:11

Mewling · 21/09/2025 14:21

Just bumping this for the daytime crowd. We need to be really vigilant against this bollocks.

OP seems like a bit of a wanker (sorry, I'm sure he's not wanking, he's off having brain-melting sex I see) but the desire to have children isn't a weird artificial idea cooked up by American extremists.

Studies very frequently show that women are having fewer children than they want, and often it's because they don't meet someone they find acceptable even if they'd have liked children with a "good" man ("childless by circumstance") - we should engage with that rather than just go "ah isn't it lovely that modern women are being so independent"

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 15:08

Is it really possible that bots infiltrate forums like this? With the hope of what? Spreading an ideology?
Are we that influenced sub consciously by what we read? I don’t think anyone online could make me act in one way or another but perhaps I’m misguided.

Dervel · 21/09/2025 14:43

Good men are very thin on the ground, but then again so are good women…

WetHair · 21/09/2025 14:39

LlttledrummergirI · 21/09/2025 14:02

I haven't read the full thread, so apologies if this has been posted previously.

When a female of any species is born, there is a 50% chance that they may have children.

I haven't researched this, but given that they either will or won't choose to have children, anecdotally I believe I'm correct.

If there is a third option, please educate me.

You’re wrong. There being two mutually exclusive choices (have baby/dont have baby) does NOT mean that both are equally likely.

To use examples already given up thread: tomorrow I could be Prime Minister, or I could not be. That doesn’t mean both examples are equally likely. Tomorrow I might murder someone, or I might not. The chances of both of those are not 50:50

Currently around 80% of women have children at some point, so the chance of a baby girl born today eventually having children is around 80%. Except that it isn’t, because we don’t know yet what percentage of her generation will have children and won’t.

FeistyFrankie · 21/09/2025 14:38

I was in a long term relationship and wanted to start a family, but chose not to because of the insane cost of childcare. We just couldn't afford it. Then we broke up.

I've looked into going it alone and again, cant afford the childcare fees.

I'm too old to fall pregnant naturally, now. Nobody i have dated in recent years has made me think, oh I can see them being a great dad. Not one.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 14:29

LlttledrummergirI · 21/09/2025 14:02

I haven't read the full thread, so apologies if this has been posted previously.

When a female of any species is born, there is a 50% chance that they may have children.

I haven't researched this, but given that they either will or won't choose to have children, anecdotally I believe I'm correct.

If there is a third option, please educate me.

Be prepared for a maths lesson. That’s just not how statistics work.

OutsideLookingOut · 21/09/2025 14:28

FlowerUser · 21/09/2025 13:56

I completely agree.

I never wanted kids and I don't regret that. ExH was the same but then had a kid in his late 30s, with the woman he cheated on me, around 12 years later. Maybe he grew up.

Met my completely worthy DH 14 years ago in my early 40s, but it took me four years to go out with him because he was really obese. He is now slimmer but still fat and I don't care. He is a brilliant kind man who does all the cooking and washing and most of the housework. And earns a very good wage.

We probably don't tell our daughters enough to look beyond the looks.

I think women are often told not to judge by looks (which I disagree with). Look at men's anger than women have a height preference and women will tell you that you should not have preferences too lol. Whereas men are not going to sit around berating themselves for only wanting a pretty, hot or young woman. And if you want kids, then his health can impact you and them too so it is worth considering. And to all this he has to be a good father and husband, so it is very hard to find for many women.

Onegingerhead · 21/09/2025 14:28

Mewling · 21/09/2025 14:21

Just bumping this for the daytime crowd. We need to be really vigilant against this bollocks.

I saw the original post and it all makes total sense now.

I absolutely loathe all that tradwife rubbish. It makes my piss boil, partly because of some personal circumstances too

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 14:26

KhakiTiger · 21/09/2025 14:02

Not sure why people keep parroting the line that women are are not having children because of housing and cost of living. Highest birth rates in this country and and around the world are in countries where housing security doesn’t exist and people live in poverty.

Housing and income has zero to do with birth rates.

In fact the better these things, the lower the birth rates, as we have seen before our very own eyes.

Rich (absolute or relative) women simply do not wan to have children because children take away your freedom. The more you have, the less you are willing to sacrifice. It’s really not any more complicated than that. No need for mental gymnastics.

Edited

Hundred percent this. Same with medical care.

Rewis · 21/09/2025 14:22

I'm open to having children. I only have few years left. But I have to say, looking around, nothing makes it particularly appealing. I totally understand biological need but for us fence sitters there is nothing really pushing it to the yes side. Besides financial concerns, I feel like parenting has been made very difficult.

Mewling · 21/09/2025 14:21

LeftMyScarfThere · 21/09/2025 01:40

If people are wondering where posts like this are coming from, it's the pronatalist movement emerging from the American right. It goes along with tradwives and is inherently misogynistic - I mean, the OP has adequately illustrated that for us. I wanted to barf when he included something about 'the mating window' at the end of his first post.

The degree to which they're bombarding forums and social media is pretty sinister. They are coming after women's rights, so we'd all better look out.

Just bumping this for the daytime crowd. We need to be really vigilant against this bollocks.

Horsie · 21/09/2025 14:16

KnitFastDieWarm · 21/09/2025 14:11

In my anecdotal experience, it’s men who get lazy and sexless a few years into a relationship - which then has the knock on effect of women not wanting to have sex with them, because who finds a lazy, uncaring slob sexually appealing? But because men aren’t allowed to say ‘actually i’m not that interested in sex’ women get blamed for not ‘making the effort’ 🙄women not wanting sex with a man who sits around scratching his arse all day and does nothing to make her feel sexy or appreciated does not equal ‘women don’t like sex’ - they just don’t want sex with men who treat them like emotional support humans/maids.

Edited

Yup. My ex-H was the moodiest person I've ever met. Complete turn-off.

KnitFastDieWarm · 21/09/2025 14:11

Horsie · 21/09/2025 00:55

Sadly, he speaks the truth. Sex is important to men in a way that women will never understand.

In my anecdotal experience, it’s men who get lazy and sexless a few years into a relationship - which then has the knock on effect of women not wanting to have sex with them, because who finds a lazy, uncaring slob sexually appealing? But because men aren’t allowed to say ‘actually i’m not that interested in sex’ women get blamed for not ‘making the effort’ 🙄women not wanting sex with a man who sits around scratching his arse all day and does nothing to make her feel sexy or appreciated does not equal ‘women don’t like sex’ - they just don’t want sex with men who treat them like emotional support humans/maids.

ruethewhirl · 21/09/2025 14:09

ChihuahuaKeeper · 21/09/2025 01:58

Are you being ironic being on MUMSnet?

YAWN.

blubberyboo · 21/09/2025 14:08

Ally886 · 21/09/2025 13:48

I'd prefer to be divorced and childless. Imagine losing your financial safety net and then having to support your children on a lower household income. No thanks

We don't have to look too far back in time to see how the government and society treated single and teenaged mums.

They were treated like scum and scroungers.

blubberyboo · 21/09/2025 14:05

Mewling · 21/09/2025 13:43

https://x.com/thealiceroberts/status/1968953193771016434?s=46

A link via X from Professor Alice Roberts on the rise of Christian nationalism in the UK, which might be of interest to this discussion.

Roberts has no credibility when it comes to discussions about the effect of religion/ideology on society and on women in particular.

She soon goes very quiet when women want to talk about other belief systems that impact our reproductive and gynae rights and our place in society.

FairKoala · 21/09/2025 14:02

Goatinthegarden · 21/09/2025 05:10

Honestly, it was Mumsnet that made me consider if I actually wanted children. I first came here when I was broody in my mid twenties. I was newly married and keen to start trying for a baby. At that point in my life, my experience of babies had been holding sweet little sleeping parcels and pushing a pram. It seemed ideal. Then I read, in depth, all about the realities of life with children, disappearing men, costs involved, etc, etc….and it put me off.

There is more information out there than ever before and women have the ability to stop and consider their options before committing. I’m nearly forty now, still married to the same DH, and we’re very happy with the decision we made.

The issue I have with this is if you say on here that it was hard work at times and you had a wonderful time and having children changed your life for the better you get shot down for saying such things.

Apparently it is complete drudgery having children. No exceptions

KhakiTiger · 21/09/2025 14:02

Not sure why people keep parroting the line that women are are not having children because of housing and cost of living. Highest birth rates in this country and and around the world are in countries where housing security doesn’t exist and people live in poverty.

Housing and income has zero to do with birth rates.

In fact the better these things, the lower the birth rates, as we have seen before our very own eyes.

Rich (absolute or relative) women simply do not wan to have children because children take away your freedom. The more you have, the less you are willing to sacrifice. It’s really not any more complicated than that. No need for mental gymnastics.

LlttledrummergirI · 21/09/2025 14:02

I haven't read the full thread, so apologies if this has been posted previously.

When a female of any species is born, there is a 50% chance that they may have children.

I haven't researched this, but given that they either will or won't choose to have children, anecdotally I believe I'm correct.

If there is a third option, please educate me.

OriginalUsername2 · 21/09/2025 13:57

LeftMyScarfThere · 21/09/2025 01:40

If people are wondering where posts like this are coming from, it's the pronatalist movement emerging from the American right. It goes along with tradwives and is inherently misogynistic - I mean, the OP has adequately illustrated that for us. I wanted to barf when he included something about 'the mating window' at the end of his first post.

The degree to which they're bombarding forums and social media is pretty sinister. They are coming after women's rights, so we'd all better look out.

THIS.

Mumsnet is easy prey. Scary.

FlowerUser · 21/09/2025 13:56

OneAmberFinch · 21/09/2025 13:48

I agree with this and I think a huge part of the reason for the failing-to-couple up aspect is driven by men not being worthy of being partners.

I do think we let down our daughters in a different way by failing to advise them on how to select a man. We do a lot of "ahh follow your heart" and "pursue your passions, build your career, and the right man will come along" and "don't be desperate, you sound really calculating, you should only marry for love".

This also includes the stages of relationships. What extra information do you gain in years 2-3 that you didn't know about the person in year 1? It's one thing if it's your school/uni sweetheart - makes sense to wait a few years to see how his adult character develops, and early 20s is still quite young - but 30/33yos plausibly could marry within 1-2 years of meeting each other even allowing time to organise a wedding. But again "don't even hint that you want marriage and kids until 2 years in or you'll look desperate, bit soon love".

I have several friends who didn't want kids, marriage etc but looking at the childish guys they were dating (for years at a time) it was no wonder. I think we should encourage women to either be properly single or to look intentionally for a strong partner - to assess as if he's going to be a father and provider, even if you intend to have a 50/50 marriage or might not have kids. Shacking up with these childlike gamer types gives them no incentive to ever grow up, and doesn't give you what you want either (an actual grown-up partner).

I completely agree.

I never wanted kids and I don't regret that. ExH was the same but then had a kid in his late 30s, with the woman he cheated on me, around 12 years later. Maybe he grew up.

Met my completely worthy DH 14 years ago in my early 40s, but it took me four years to go out with him because he was really obese. He is now slimmer but still fat and I don't care. He is a brilliant kind man who does all the cooking and washing and most of the housework. And earns a very good wage.

We probably don't tell our daughters enough to look beyond the looks.

EilonwyWithRedGoldHair · 21/09/2025 13:56

Greggsit · 21/09/2025 00:30

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before

This simply isn't true. The average number of children per mother in 1800 was 5.9. it's now 2.5.

Isn't it more like 1.5 in the UK now, overall?

But they were saying the birth rate among those who do have children is much the same - so if you look at DH & me and our siblings families the overall birth rate per woman is 1.8, but if you only include those of us who've had children it's 2.25.