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To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

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DarkPassenger1 · 22/09/2025 14:49

Almostwelsh · 22/09/2025 14:01

It's not uncommon locally. If you have a child at 18 (which isn't excessively young) and they have a child at 18, you'll be a grandmother in your 30s.

Wow! I think eighteen is absolutely excessively young. How many 18yr olds have been working long enough to earn a salary high enough to support them and a child, including throughout the child's infancy? Or how many have managed to achieve qualifications that open the door to a career or well-paid job?

The only eighteen year olds I know that have had babies have only been able to do so due to significant practical, financial and emotional support from parents, including remaining living with them.

Eighteen is an adult, but it's a hair's width away from being a child.

Having a baby isn't really something to race into early doors and find yourself unable to properly provide for/support them.

PinkArt · 22/09/2025 14:27

Almostwelsh · 22/09/2025 14:01

It's not uncommon locally. If you have a child at 18 (which isn't excessively young) and they have a child at 18, you'll be a grandmother in your 30s.

I think most people do consider 18 excessively young to have a baby. Yes they're an adult but literally in their first year of adulthood, so they've gone straight from their childhood to being responsible for someone else's.

KimberleyClark · 22/09/2025 14:13

The latest addition to the family has 18 year old parents who are not in education, something that the middle classes would tut at.

Are they supporting themselves financially? Because I don’t think it’s a good idea to encourage 18 year olds to have children when they’re not able to support themselves.

Almostwelsh · 22/09/2025 14:01

Iceandfire92 · 22/09/2025 13:35

A grandmother in her 30's?! Crikey, my friends are all 30-38 and only one has had their first baby!

It's not uncommon locally. If you have a child at 18 (which isn't excessively young) and they have a child at 18, you'll be a grandmother in your 30s.

Chiseltip · 22/09/2025 13:59

GiantTeddyIsTired · 22/09/2025 11:36

When we say men need to step up, we don't mean be 6' with a 6 figure salary. We mean pick up their own socks and clean the toilet after themselves.

The whole point is women aren't forced to be with a man to survive now, we're allowed an education/job/to own property, so we get to choose which men we tether ourselves to, and those men, quite often, are a bit rubbish (I myself have 2 kids with an ex who actually is 6' and 6 figures (mind you, i'm 5' and 6 figures myself), but who never ran the hoover round once, and sees his kids a couple of times a month. Where was my motivation to have more children with him?

The very fact that for you (and many other women) having children, or instigating divorce proceedings, is based on something as nonsensical as "running a hoover around" just proves my point.

You would NEVER hear a man say . . .

"yeah, she wasn't hovering, so I refused to have kids with her."

EuclidianGeometryFan · 22/09/2025 13:42

HelmholtzWatson · 22/09/2025 05:40

Ah the "Which is basically saying ..." defence which is always followed by a straw man!

Anyway, sounds like you are generalising your own experiences to all men, which is of course reinforcing harmful gender stereotypes. Do better.

But why were you generalising that "it could be that women have raised their expectations beyond the level that many men are capable of achieving". Is that not also reinforcing harmful gender stereotypes.
Pot kettle black.

Iceandfire92 · 22/09/2025 13:35

Almostwelsh · 22/09/2025 10:01

This is a late stage capitalism issue. We expect women to do the double whammy of contributing through paid work while also producing the next generation.

Women with careers can't afford to do this to a large extent.

I have some distant relatives who do seem to be bucking the trend. They are a large family and have numerous babies, giving birth between the ages of 16 and 30. All the women have 2+ children. The key is that most of the women don't have careers, or if they do it's work that can be flexible as a self employed person, such as hairdresser. The women are the rocks of the family and support their sisters, children and grandchildren with their young families. They don't marry and the men are not the focus of the family (although some do contribute financially and work in factories, building sites). Most of the women have jobs in things like retail and hospitality and arrange childcare with other family members around shifts. They support each other and all live very locally - often walking distance. I'm not privy to their finances, but they probably do claim benefits where they are entitled to.

The latest addition to the family has 18 year old parents who are not in education, something that the middle classes would tut at. This baby has been welcomed with pride and love by all the family, who are supporting the young parents in many practical ways. The grandmother is in her 30s, the great grandmother in her 50s. These young grandparents are key in supporting the young parents and do so. The children of the family are well looked after, attend school regularly and have hobbies and do sports.

This is a way of life that was common when birth rates were higher. The isolated lives many people live now feeding the corporate machine has removed all the support women used to have when having children, hence they have fewer and often none.

A grandmother in her 30's?! Crikey, my friends are all 30-38 and only one has had their first baby!

OneAmberFinch · 22/09/2025 13:17

FlirtsWithRhinos · 22/09/2025 12:35

Honestly, and I say this as a Feminist, I agree. When I've spoken about getting the incentives right it's not necessarily thinking in terms of individual childcare support or even individual men stepping up, but more along the lines of seeing childcare and childrearing as something done within social groups not private couples and finding ways to support that so individual women aren't carrying the burden and the risk by themselves.

Well, including private couples who have strong support from wider social groups too, presumably?

YouHaveAnArse · 22/09/2025 12:38

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:09

There was a suggestion in one interview that government needs to step in and tell young women it will have their back if men let them down, in order to persuade them to have children at a younger age.

Though it was also asked, what would you rather be at 50: a divorced childless women, or a divorced woman with children? Maybe the risk of a bad man is worth taking, if you want children enough. Not for me to say.

Most people I know had their children in their mid to late 30s. So being a divorced woman with children in your 50s would be a big financial burden.

FlirtsWithRhinos · 22/09/2025 12:35

Almostwelsh · 22/09/2025 10:24

I know they would. Which I don't think is fair. I do think it's interesting that they are reproducing like this without centering men in their lives. It's a very matriarchal model.

Now I know that female headed families like this do tend to use the benefit system. But what is the problem really? Either men support the next generation directly through marriage, or indirectly through taxes. Most of the women in the family are finished with childbirth by 30 and also proceed to work and support their children and grandchildren for many years.

Honestly, and I say this as a Feminist, I agree. When I've spoken about getting the incentives right it's not necessarily thinking in terms of individual childcare support or even individual men stepping up, but more along the lines of seeing childcare and childrearing as something done within social groups not private couples and finding ways to support that so individual women aren't carrying the burden and the risk by themselves.

GiantTeddyIsTired · 22/09/2025 11:36

Chiseltip · 22/09/2025 06:43

😂

And do what exactly?

Force a woman to have a child?

Social media has warped the minds of a generation of young women. If you think porn is dangerous for young men, take a look at what Tic Tok is doing to the minds of women. They are being told how they are so much better, more valid and deserve perfect lives. That no "ordinary" man is good enough to date, let alone have children with.

Men don't need to "step up". It's actually women who need to "step down". Some of us, and a vast majority of young women, live in a fantasy world. They think they are the most beautiful creatures to ever exist and that some multi millionaire guy, with a six pack, a Bentley and 600k followers on his Instagram is going to come along and wife them up. This isn't going to happen. So there's nothing left but staying single and childless.

Take away all the fake up, falseness and filters, and all those "stunning", "gorgeous", "living their best life" young women would be what they really are. Ordinary, nothing special, real life without the photoshop. And there's nothing wrong with that. We are all like that. But women are telling each other that they are better than ordinary life. We need to stop this nonsense.

As an aside, I think falling birth rates are a good thing. We have made a mess of this planet. And a few billion less of us is probably a good thing.

Edited

When we say men need to step up, we don't mean be 6' with a 6 figure salary. We mean pick up their own socks and clean the toilet after themselves.

The whole point is women aren't forced to be with a man to survive now, we're allowed an education/job/to own property, so we get to choose which men we tether ourselves to, and those men, quite often, are a bit rubbish (I myself have 2 kids with an ex who actually is 6' and 6 figures (mind you, i'm 5' and 6 figures myself), but who never ran the hoover round once, and sees his kids a couple of times a month. Where was my motivation to have more children with him?

JNicholson · 22/09/2025 11:12

Chiseltip · 22/09/2025 06:43

😂

And do what exactly?

Force a woman to have a child?

Social media has warped the minds of a generation of young women. If you think porn is dangerous for young men, take a look at what Tic Tok is doing to the minds of women. They are being told how they are so much better, more valid and deserve perfect lives. That no "ordinary" man is good enough to date, let alone have children with.

Men don't need to "step up". It's actually women who need to "step down". Some of us, and a vast majority of young women, live in a fantasy world. They think they are the most beautiful creatures to ever exist and that some multi millionaire guy, with a six pack, a Bentley and 600k followers on his Instagram is going to come along and wife them up. This isn't going to happen. So there's nothing left but staying single and childless.

Take away all the fake up, falseness and filters, and all those "stunning", "gorgeous", "living their best life" young women would be what they really are. Ordinary, nothing special, real life without the photoshop. And there's nothing wrong with that. We are all like that. But women are telling each other that they are better than ordinary life. We need to stop this nonsense.

As an aside, I think falling birth rates are a good thing. We have made a mess of this planet. And a few billion less of us is probably a good thing.

Edited

I think @MotherOfRatios had her quote wrong, although the sense is clear from context: when interviewed, young women gave ‘having children’ as one of their top priorities in life and their idea of what a successful life looked like, young men didn’t even mention having children. So no, no-one is suggesting (god forbid) that men should be forcing women to have a child. People are pointing out that based on this evidence, young women already have parenthood on their agenda for what they want over the course of their life, young men don’t. So why does all the discussion about falling birth rates point exclusively to women as the cause?

Almostwelsh · 22/09/2025 11:07

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 22/09/2025 10:43

Would the sons born into this structure be allowed to go off and do the same or are there new expectations of the new generation of men born?

I'm not sure. The latest baby has been born to a male family member and his grandparents are offering support to the new parents just the same as they do with the women. Realistically though, he may well split with his girlfriend and have more children with someone else and in those situations the mother of the child tends to turn to her own family. Quite a few of the women have partners who support step children as well as their biological children though, but this may only continue as long as the relationship lasts.

What I will say is that contrary to media portrayals of these types of families, the children are all well looked after, have everything material they need and are polite, don't get into trouble. They are a credit to their parents.

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 22/09/2025 11:01

GetOffMyLan · 22/09/2025 10:41

And what do all religions have in common I wonder? Oh right, misogynistic and patriarchal, used go subjugate and control women. No woman wants to be a dairy cow.

There have in history been female cenrtic relgions - we're just not as used to them.

I supect though many well educated relgious women living in secular socities would bristle at the idea they are brain washed idiots like this post is suggesting.

I'm not advocating women should have kids - frankly I think that a very indivdual choice and frankly a gamble.

I'm an atheist but I wanted kids and have enjoyed having them. Two at uni and one doing A-levels all the dire well just you wait posts I feel don't apply now. I made an active choice - picked out a partner who also actively wanted kids and spent ten years getting in a stable place together to have them. I am not a fool or a brain washed idiot - they've been really hard work but fun.

I really reject men telling women to have kids for the "greater good" but also women telling other women they shouldn't or there is something wrong with them if they do.

Our socitey made having kids more expensive and demading than ever before - I'm not surpised the birth rate has dropped - latest UN report found that most young people wanted more kids than they had or expected to have due to barriers - so it's not all free choices.

OneAmberFinch · 22/09/2025 10:57

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 22/09/2025 10:44

And it goes in cycles… the kids I know born into religious families tend to break free from them.

I think this depends a lot on the surrounding culture. If the whole culture is religious and there is no secular influence then you just go along with it. As it's less about cycles of extremes, more about following the default.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 22/09/2025 10:44

GetOffMyLan · 22/09/2025 10:41

And what do all religions have in common I wonder? Oh right, misogynistic and patriarchal, used go subjugate and control women. No woman wants to be a dairy cow.

And it goes in cycles… the kids I know born into religious families tend to break free from them.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 22/09/2025 10:43

Almostwelsh · 22/09/2025 10:24

I know they would. Which I don't think is fair. I do think it's interesting that they are reproducing like this without centering men in their lives. It's a very matriarchal model.

Now I know that female headed families like this do tend to use the benefit system. But what is the problem really? Either men support the next generation directly through marriage, or indirectly through taxes. Most of the women in the family are finished with childbirth by 30 and also proceed to work and support their children and grandchildren for many years.

Would the sons born into this structure be allowed to go off and do the same or are there new expectations of the new generation of men born?

GetOffMyLan · 22/09/2025 10:41

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 22/09/2025 10:25

Religious people generally have more kids - secular socities have had most fertlity declines - even where religious women do have access to education and more autonomy.

Could be patriarchal structures, could be more community support, could be more hopefully outlook on life - could be a lot of things but your right religious communities even in secular counrties they do have higher birth rates though even those can still be below replacement levels just higher than surrounding society.

And what do all religions have in common I wonder? Oh right, misogynistic and patriarchal, used go subjugate and control women. No woman wants to be a dairy cow.

itsAforapple · 22/09/2025 10:38

I had kids with a woman, when I was much older than 28 but given the choice of men many of my straight friends seem left with I’m not surprised women are having less kids. Finances aside.

GetOffMyLan · 22/09/2025 10:38

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 22/09/2025 10:13

And to add… I have step children and my SD is very much of a Christian marry young and have children young mindset. There are some young people wiling to do the saving of the world.

🤣

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 22/09/2025 10:31

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 22/09/2025 10:25

Religious people generally have more kids - secular socities have had most fertlity declines - even where religious women do have access to education and more autonomy.

Could be patriarchal structures, could be more community support, could be more hopefully outlook on life - could be a lot of things but your right religious communities even in secular counrties they do have higher birth rates though even those can still be below replacement levels just higher than surrounding society.

My SD is currently of this mindset. I’m not sure where it has come from as it’s not from my DH and I and her own mother has had 5 children with 3 different fathers. It’s possibly an effect of her parents divorce and seeking out the alternative.

Im quite happy for her to have her traditional values and family setup with her husband heading up the household and her being this dream SAHM. She is studying so we haven’t let her completely get taken away with it. My DH and I were discussing it recently and I think the thing that is going to stop this from happened is financial. She is too naive to understand the cost of raising children and I think her BF overestimates his ability to be this traditional head of the household, provide for everyone and still be this hands on dad. It’s a very rosy picture painted by the church but really doesn’t take into account much reality.

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 22/09/2025 10:30

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 22/09/2025 10:26

TBH most likely scenario is population decreases across many countries and socites adapt as best they can and at some point some sort of equilibrium is found - but we've never had this on such a wide spread scale so no-one really knows.

This sounds like the most reasonable outcome. We endure whatever the fallout is eventually learn and adapt to less people on the planet again. I don’t know what that looks like practically and I won’t be here to witness it I’m guessing.

Pension age creep - possible rationing of health care creeping in more and and how ever the euthanasia bill with safe guards pans out - could affect you dependent on age.

OneAmberFinch · 22/09/2025 10:28

Pharazon · 22/09/2025 09:47

@OldOrMaybeNotThatOld

I'm sure some politicians are aware but the majority, as with climate change, simply don't grasp the magnitude of the issue. Their time horizon is 5 years max.

In order to 'recover' from a disaster-level population crash to a stable population you need to get the TFR back to 2.1. It's currently 1.4 in England and Wales.

In the past, when countries have had a disastrous population crash (Ireland is a close to home example), they have suffered huge economic decline but then once the factor causing the population decline is resolved (famine and emigration in the case of Ireland), the population rapidly stabilised. This is because the TFR never declined: women were still having babies, but they were either dying or leaving, and old people were dying much earlier.

Now we have the TFR at record lows, and longevity at record highs - so we don't actually (yet) see a population decline as people are living longer than ever. Unfortunately when you have a large number of economically inactive elderly people, and fewer economically active young pople, that is problematic. Western countries have so far plugged the gap with immigration (most apparent in the care sector, where there simply aren't enough young people to care for all the elderly people) - but this is becoming politically more and more untenable.

Yup exactly. We already tried pulling some levers and we can't just "pull them harder" (e.g. add even more immigrants) without more pressure.

Electorally I don't see how some of these benefits (I mean pensions, social care etc) can be reversed though. I think they somehow need to be for the reasons you outline, I just think every possible government is going to run into trouble unless they can explicitly spell out the disaster scenario. Even a potential Reform government.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 22/09/2025 10:26

TBH most likely scenario is population decreases across many countries and socites adapt as best they can and at some point some sort of equilibrium is found - but we've never had this on such a wide spread scale so no-one really knows.

This sounds like the most reasonable outcome. We endure whatever the fallout is eventually learn and adapt to less people on the planet again. I don’t know what that looks like practically and I won’t be here to witness it I’m guessing.

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 22/09/2025 10:25

KimberleyClark · 22/09/2025 10:19

That usually happens in dicatorships/authoritarian governments not democarcies - democarcies usally go for pronatalist polices ie usually money.

Or in patriarchal usually religious cultures where women have no status outside of traditional family structures and very little inside of them either.

Religious people generally have more kids - secular socities have had most fertlity declines - even where religious women do have access to education and more autonomy.

Could be patriarchal structures, could be more community support, could be more hopefully outlook on life - could be a lot of things but your right religious communities even in secular counrties they do have higher birth rates though even those can still be below replacement levels just higher than surrounding society.

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