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To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

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OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 07:44

I did all the right things. Got a university degree, travelled, pursued a career in another country, dated on and off and always ensured I took birth control seriously as I didn’t want an accident. I somehow just assumed that children were a part of my future but put no active thought into finding the right partner, I just thought it would happen when the time was right. When I met my now DH he had been married previously with 2 kids and a vasectomy. We tried to have kids through ivf but I was already 40 by then making it tricky.

I sometimes wonder what would have happened if I wasn’t so responsible in my youth? It wasn’t for lack of sex that I didn’t have children.

OlympicProcrastinator · 21/09/2025 07:44

CleanShirt · 21/09/2025 07:36

What the actual fuck am I reading??

You are reading the rambling of a porn addicted male who spends his life listening to single men spouting nasty shit about women on podcasts. He’s now come on a primarily female site to dress his misogyny as ‘discussion’ to tell us everything is our fault.

Iceandfire92 · 21/09/2025 07:43

Childfree millenial here. We were teenagers in the noughties when teenage pregnancy was rife. In order to tackle this, the media constantly fed us the narrative that pregnancy is a life ruining event. I remember watching tv shows such as Teen Mom, Underage and pregnant etc that depicted young mothers in hardship who were often perpetuating generational cycles of poverty. They showed life as a parent unfavourably with many scenes of screaming babies in cluttered homes in states of disarray. I truly believed that my life would be over if I became pregnant; I ensured that I had long-term, foolproof contraception in place.

The mission to reduce teenage pregnancy rates was effective as there has been a 50% drop. I believe that the narrative enforced on us in our formative years has been sufficient to put many of us off for life. To this day, child rearing remains an unattractive option for so many reasons, we know the financial and career implications and that most households need two good incomes to stay afloat, let alone bring a child into the mix.

We also often see unruly children running riot in public with parents doing very little to stop the behaviour and actually discipline their kids. This is partially due to the rise in screen time and lack of discipline/prevalence of gentle parenting. Yesterday, my quiet swim after the gym was ruined by children screaming and bombing in the pool. I popped to Tesco after this and was surrounded by children screaming at the top of their lungs running around. If I had DARED to scream in the 90's in a public place, my mother would have removed me from the situation immediately and I would have been disciplined.

EuclidianGeometryFan · 21/09/2025 07:41

Horsie · 21/09/2025 00:55

Sadly, he speaks the truth. Sex is important to men in a way that women will never understand.

But it won't get them to commit.
As the old saying goes, why buy the cow if the milk is free?

Part of the issue is women not wanting to have babies with inadequate men who won't commit.
The other part is affordability and housing.

Verydemure · 21/09/2025 07:40

I think marriage used to be the only career option available to many women until recently. Having kids became part of that.

now women have much better options and also higher standards. A lot of men expect a lot from women while giving little in return.

Joystir59 · 21/09/2025 07:40

The survival of the human race isn't important. We have fucked the planet up, and now we are in decline. AI is going to make most of us redundant in time, so fewer people needing work will be good.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 07:39

CrispieCake · 21/09/2025 07:36

Good for them! Young women aren't baby-making machines. They should be encouraged to live for themselves as well as others.

Having children is a huge commitment and our society is set up in a way that means that many women struggle to get to the gym after having a baby, even if they'd like to go, let alone to a weekend away with friends. Travelling is usually out of the question.

Yes, these didn't used to be options but now they are and young people have the freedom to have all sorts of experiences that wouldn't previously have been available. Why shouldn't they grasp them when the alternative is drudgery, a stressful job and a huge mortgage for a tiny home?

I’m not disagreeing with you. Infantalisation is a negative word. Both men and women are delaying adulthood for whatever reason.

Catwalking · 21/09/2025 07:38

The world is overpopulated with humans.

I had no impulse /desire whatever to have children. I always felt the world is a horrid place to bring a child into… & really still do.
My 1st was born when I was 29 & then had 2 more, (the 2nd only because I was worried that 1 child would be lonely without a sibling.)

CrispieCake · 21/09/2025 07:37

CleanShirt · 21/09/2025 07:36

What the actual fuck am I reading??

Part of the reason why many women are deciding men aren't worth it.

Feelthabreeze · 21/09/2025 07:36

Whether we call it infantilisation, exploring your passions or extending youth I think it’s great women are choosing not to settle down with kids and a partner at a time where it doesn’t feel right for them .

And whether that’s because they don’t desire that or it’s because they know they haven’t found the right partner or they don’t like the state of the world - I’m grateful for the options we all have.

ETA: same applies to men too actually! If they don’t want kids yet I’d rather they didn’t instead of having them THEN deciding they want a year of solo travel lol

CrispieCake · 21/09/2025 07:36

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 07:29

It’s not infantilisation but young people are extending their youth into their late twenties sometimes with the popularity of travel, gap years, university (this wasn’t always an option for most). This is fact.

Good for them! Young women aren't baby-making machines. They should be encouraged to live for themselves as well as others.

Having children is a huge commitment and our society is set up in a way that means that many women struggle to get to the gym after having a baby, even if they'd like to go, let alone to a weekend away with friends. Travelling is usually out of the question.

Yes, these didn't used to be options but now they are and young people have the freedom to have all sorts of experiences that wouldn't previously have been available. Why shouldn't they grasp them when the alternative is drudgery, a stressful job and a huge mortgage for a tiny home?

beAsensible1 · 21/09/2025 07:36

MotherOfRatios · 20/09/2025 23:52

Falling birth rates are an issue but I'm personally of the camp of making it financially better and easier for those who want children/have children to have multiple rather than encouraging all women to have children.

I also think discussions miss our the role of men, men have to step up and carry their weight reason research found that Gen-Z women want a career as a top priority whereas for men having children was the top priority. Men have to step up imo it can't all be about encouraging women, men have to do more in carrying the load.

All these men want children but don’t want to be parents.

CleanShirt · 21/09/2025 07:36

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

What the actual fuck am I reading??

Sharptonguedwoman · 21/09/2025 07:35

FourIsNewSix · 21/09/2025 00:08

I don't see declining population size as bad thing. The humankind was never this numerous and there is only one planet.
And through the history, there have always been childless women, those unmarried aunties from literature were real.

The main issue is that economist and politics created an impossible expectation of infinite growth.

Thank you. I think exactly the same as this. There are plenty of people, the pressure they put on the environment is insane. The problem is economics. We're fixated on a model that might have worked when it was set up but doesn't now. We need to think again about how to finance our changing population. An ever growing population is not the answer.

HauntedHero · 21/09/2025 07:35

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen.

This doesn't ring true for me. I know quite a few childless women, some who are single and some in long term relationships. I only know one who wanted children and wasn't able to have any. It's very much been a considered choice for the remainder.

OlympicProcrastinator · 21/09/2025 07:34

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:05

To solve the problem by having bigger familes rather than fewer childless women, I think the median mother might have to have four children instead of two. That's a rather big ask. It also doesn't address the suffering of childless women who did not want to end up that way.

No-one is saying that women who don't want children should do so.

I kind of agree that men are part of the problem, in that there aren't enough of them who want to marry and have children with 30-something women. If women are determined to have children, they need to get men to commit at a younger age. (Which should be easier, as women below the age of 30 have the upper hand in the dating market. 30 is the cross-over-age, after which men start to have the upper hand.)

It’s interesting you threw in the ‘men have the upper hand in dating when women hit 30’ trope. This is a manosphere line. See also ‘men age like wine and women age like milk’ and ‘women hit the wall at 35’.

None of which are true. Men do not stop bothering women after 30. The age range of the men simply changes. Women do not have trouble dating at any age. What changes is women who have not settled and had children become wiser and see the way men routinely treat women and often decide, with all the additional economic pressure modern life brings, that taking on kids, a full time job and a man that likely won’t pull his weight and cheats is simply not worth it.

Men are telling women they ‘hit the wall at 35’ and they’d better hurry up but fail to consider women don’t stop getting older because they get married. Women don’t want to be cheated on and left carrying the baby. Especially with the utter disdain single mothers are spoken about by men.

Women have more choice and we are choosing better. It’s really that simple.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 07:29

CrispieCake · 21/09/2025 07:20

I will walk over hot coals before I allow my DD to marry at 17.

It's not about infantilisation, it's about having time to learn who you are, what your passions and interests are and to build your independence and career prospects before your wings are clipped by the day-to-day drudgery of having to focus on meeting the needs of others. To know that you yourself are worth investing in.

There's a reason why highly controlling and misogynistic societies are usually in favour of marrying young girls off early. Keep them powerless, limit their economic independence and ensure they're easy to control.

It’s not infantilisation but young people are extending their youth into their late twenties sometimes with the popularity of travel, gap years, university (this wasn’t always an option for most). This is fact.

Feelthabreeze · 21/09/2025 07:29

CrispieCake · 21/09/2025 07:20

I will walk over hot coals before I allow my DD to marry at 17.

It's not about infantilisation, it's about having time to learn who you are, what your passions and interests are and to build your independence and career prospects before your wings are clipped by the day-to-day drudgery of having to focus on meeting the needs of others. To know that you yourself are worth investing in.

There's a reason why highly controlling and misogynistic societies are usually in favour of marrying young girls off early. Keep them powerless, limit their economic independence and ensure they're easy to control.

Yeah it’s not a good thing for teens/children to be getting married. To go straight from childhood to parenthood seems ill advised and unnecessary in today’s world where life expectancy is 75+

What about some time to develop as a single/unmarried adult?

There are exceptions but these super young marriages have such a high rate of breakdown and no wonder. So many people are very different between say 17 and 24. And many regret the abrupt end of their childhood.

It’s also not great for girls /women specifically as realistically speaking they are the ones often left carrying the children, and possessing little qualifications or work experience if/when their husband leaves them in their 30s and 40s.

That said I know 3 couples from my childhood church married before 21 (both the man and woman were of a similar age in each couple) I wouldn’t advise marriage for 16-21 year olds generally and usually from what I’ve seen it’s a shit show. However what I liked about how these 3 couples did it is they didn’t have kids until way into their late 20s or even early 30s.

So despite coupling young they still enjoyed that romance and life of a couple without kids and each being able to focus on their careers and personal development, so they were in a great place to be parents when the time came. Some went to uni, some traveled together, set up business etc before they had kids.

And they also got a really good chance to assess if their partner was worthy of being a father/ mother to their future kids! Because having kids will tie to you to a person forever far more than marrying will.

ParmaVioletTea · 21/09/2025 07:27

Interesting that the focus is always on the women, not the men who IME of being single and childless (but not by choice) run away from responsibility and commitment. Too many Peter Pan men.

GentleSheep · 21/09/2025 07:27

It is men who need to be better educated so that they reach maturity in their 20s as well-rounded human beings who will be dependable, kind, helpful and considerate. They will not be looking at porn or eyeing other women. They will offer to help out around the house without being asked. We are sadly lacking such mature men who are strong in character without being lazy and demanding, who do not raise their fists against women because they want their own way but instead protect their family unit. Women would then feel more secure to go ahead and have children when at the moment they either do not or end up aborting their unborn child because of this or that concern.

AllJoyAndNoFun · 21/09/2025 07:27

Generational stretch will also lead to falling population because if 2 women born in Year 0 have children at 33 vs 20 ( just examples) then within 100 years there will be 5 generations born vs 3. Therefore even if family size and proportion of women who never have children stays the same, population growth is lower under an older mother scenario ( assuming life expectancy the same in both scenarios)

borntobequiet · 21/09/2025 07:22

GelatinousDynamo · 21/09/2025 07:12

I haven't read all the responses so maybe someone has already mentioned it, but fun fact: In John Calhoun’s famous Universe 25 experiment (in the 60s, I think), mice were given unlimited food, water, and shelter. And the population still went extinct. At first the population grew rapidly, but then males became aggressive and later withdrawn, while many females stopped raising young and took over male "jobs". Both sexes had no interest in mating despite perfect resources, fertility collapsed and the population went extinct.

Calhoun concluded that social stress and overcrowding alone can drive population failure. This has been later criticized as too simplistic, further research has been more focused on social stress. But it's interesting when you think about humans, in many developed societies, birth rates fall as density and social pressures rise (urbanisation, housing costs, competition, career stress). So maybe we're just programmed not to overcrowd the planet?

Edited

I’d completely forgotten about that - thanks for the reminder!

CrispieCake · 21/09/2025 07:20

FairKoala · 21/09/2025 07:07

It’s not that long ago that it was the norm that 18/19 year olds would get married and have children. I was married at 17. I know many who married younger.
Even in my dc’s friend groups there are a handful who by the time they turned 20 had 1,2 or 3 children with their partners

Unfortunately the normal now is to funnel children into A levels and a degree
and join in with this infantilization for a few more years.

The fact that you can’t see that getting a husband/partner, getting a place to live and starting a family at 18/19 years old is beyond possible confirms my point

I will walk over hot coals before I allow my DD to marry at 17.

It's not about infantilisation, it's about having time to learn who you are, what your passions and interests are and to build your independence and career prospects before your wings are clipped by the day-to-day drudgery of having to focus on meeting the needs of others. To know that you yourself are worth investing in.

There's a reason why highly controlling and misogynistic societies are usually in favour of marrying young girls off early. Keep them powerless, limit their economic independence and ensure they're easy to control.

Feelthabreeze · 21/09/2025 07:16

*@GameWheelsAlarm

  • the chief purpose of a woman is not to bear children. That's misogynistic wank. A woman without children is of no lesser value and has many ways toto be proud of a life well lived. Oprah Winfrey, Rosa Parks and Katherine Hepburn to name a few.*”

So true!

I feel some men (usually men over 30) are basically saying now “oh you should start thinking about popping out babies from age 25 or you might never have one” and women are like “okay we might never have one” shrugs and heading out to live their best lives.

And the men are like “huh? Wait that’s not how that chat was meant to go waaaah blah blah misogynist twaddle something something”

padso · 21/09/2025 07:15

I met DH at uni, we didn't have a dc until 30. Our relationship in our 20s was strong but we focused on careers and getting a property. I wanted to be in a position where I was secure before I considered it.