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AIBU?

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To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

OP posts:
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8
BlueandPinkSwan · 21/09/2025 08:32

OlympicProcrastinator · 21/09/2025 07:44

You are reading the rambling of a porn addicted male who spends his life listening to single men spouting nasty shit about women on podcasts. He’s now come on a primarily female site to dress his misogyny as ‘discussion’ to tell us everything is our fault.

This !00%,
Must admit I thought it is bridge territory to stir the vipers up😆

snowmichael · 21/09/2025 08:31

> rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there.
The pill was widely available in Japan, even when not licensed, along with other more traditional contraceptives, for almost all of that 20 years

Okrr · 21/09/2025 08:31

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

It’s the opposite. Cow and milk.

The men that want to commit to a particular person will do anything to keep her. Family and traditional values are not the worst thing we can keep alive. However we cannot go back now on women’s rights and do it will need to be a mixture because society has evolved.

bumbaloo · 21/09/2025 08:30

Finteq · 21/09/2025 00:00

I think YABU

and the stat about Japan women being childless doesn't make sense.

How can it increase from 1 in 30 to 1 in 5 in just 3 years?

That doesn't make sense.

The world is already overpopulated and increasing all the time. I don't think anyone has to worry about the population level being too low.

I think you have misunderstood what is happening globally. Birth rates have fallen drastically almost everywhere like the OP says.

it sounds all great from a simplistic environmental point of view but it’s a disaster. The population will become incredibly unbalanced. Many many old people. Not many young people.

To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.
To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.
frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 08:30

anotherside · 21/09/2025 07:57

Another more minor factor is men. Men also face the same standards of living issues. And on top of that they see in the media multiple famous men becoming fathers (albeit usually not for the first time) right into their 60s. Why struggle financially being a dad in your 20s when you can do same in your 40s-50s (and in the meantime have fun with OLD)

Except you increase issues with sperm quality in your 40s and 50s and if a not perfect strapping baby pops out they blame the uterus and fuck off to start the cycle again

fine if you are a rich old pop star with a house and staff big enough to not be bothered by such minor inconveniences

more should be advertised about male fertility, quality of genetic material

and also perhaps your inability to form a lasting relationship earlier might indicate ND genetics

and again it comes back to men being able to say “nah this isn’t the baby I wanted” off I fuck

padso · 21/09/2025 08:30

Who will pay for the elderly to live? We will figure it out because we will have to,

We are already feeling the economic impact of this though & the government can't figure it out.

Okrr · 21/09/2025 08:29

The world population since 1972 has doubled. We need less people not more for the planets sake. But who will take care of the elderly? Maybe robots. Who will pay for the elderly to live? We will figure it out because we will have to, but the population shrinking is a good thing.

anotherside · 21/09/2025 08:27

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:18

It would seem that there are only two options

  • both parents work and share the workload
  • one works and one stays home to manage the home and children

option 2 doesn’t seem viable financially anymore but it appears only women have understood this?

Because for women this setup, shitty though it is, is still seen by many as “an opportunity” - because historically women were largely shunned from the workforce, or at least restricted to very specific female roles, for centuries.

However for men the double task requirement is a new thing. They still have the cultural expectation that having a family means going out for a hard days work and then returning at 5:30 to a clean house, managed kids, and dinner on the table. When the reality for most in 2025 is that their partner will be walking through the front door at the same time as them, with no food prepared, kids on screens, and a messy house. And then, for 20-30% at least, STILL spending the evening stressing about bills.

So yes, men need to step up to do their share, but if we’re being honest the above set up is unsustainable.

AhBiscuits · 21/09/2025 08:26

I've got two friends who are 40 and want children but haven't had them.
One of them was married to a man who decided he didn't want them. They divorced and she's with someone else, but he is 25 and not ready for them. It's beginning to look like she will miss her chance.
The orher, her husband is not really bothered and has said they can have one if she really wants too. She doesn't want to have one when he is so luke warm about the idea. She doesn't want to be left raising a child alone.

I think women don't feel like they have to have children anymore, so if the circumstances are less than ideal they just won't bother.

cheesycheesy · 21/09/2025 08:25

@BlueandPinkSwanit’s so funny how a lot of men seem to think they’re a prize we want to snare and keep at any cost. They don’t understand sometimes we just aren’t interested.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:23

@Wallywobbles interesting & what I would expect it to forecast.

BlueandPinkSwan · 21/09/2025 08:23

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

FGS, only a man would trot out THAT line!🙄
What planet are you on random man? So many women would tell you that once a lot of men are like dogs once they've peed they will be sniffing around for the next lamp post.
I wouldn't even want to be in the same room if my h thought this way, it's so gross.
So sex becomes a transaction is what you are suggesting, I'll give you a bj and you walk OUR kids to school this week. Yeah, that sounds like prostitution without out the money.
That sort of thinking can fuck right off. I think the majority of women would agree.
Step up or no sex, you'll leave me ? Shut the door behind you Joe.

MidnightPatrol · 21/09/2025 08:19

cheesycheesy · 21/09/2025 08:17

I’m not surprised. Women are expected to do everything now. Work and do the lions share of the household work. I have a very supportive partner so I feel like I can have it all. But the majority of my friends are shackled to useless turds. I can see why women are opting out.

I also think this is a factor…

The world has moved a long way in expectations and opportunities for women at work. The women I know are in equal kinds of jobs to their partners.

The domestic load does not seem to be so even though, and most of the women I know are exasperated at being the ultimate ‘manager’ of all things home and children.

This makes life quite relentless - and the more children, the harder that becomes.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:18

EuclidianGeometryFan · 21/09/2025 08:15

Which is basically saying that men are not capable of being equal to women.

Men are not capable of doing night feeds then going to work the next day, for weeks and weeks on end.
Men are not capable of running a house and doing most of the housework and parenting whilst still holding down a job.

If women can do it, why can't men?

It would seem that there are only two options

  • both parents work and share the workload
  • one works and one stays home to manage the home and children

option 2 doesn’t seem viable financially anymore but it appears only women have understood this?

padso · 21/09/2025 08:17

Plus this country is an island struggling to house everyone

Fewer babies won't reduce the housing pressures.

MidnightPatrol · 21/09/2025 08:17

Guytheskiinstructor · 21/09/2025 08:11

I’m not persuaded that money has anything to do with it. Parents are ridiculously well supported (by UK/US standards) in the Nordics and their birth rates are falling just like everywhere else.

Is it that women, collectively, across the globe, cannot be bothered anymore?

I think people are prioritising quality of life over having loads of kids.

Childcare cost etc is one part of that - but actually affording a decent quality of life for lots of kids is just very expensive. I think most modern parents would rather limit their family size and actually be able to enjoy all the various possibilities of modern life vs having loads of kids and everything being a struggle.

cheesycheesy · 21/09/2025 08:17

I’m not surprised. Women are expected to do everything now. Work and do the lions share of the household work. I have a very supportive partner so I feel like I can have it all. But the majority of my friends are shackled to useless turds. I can see why women are opting out.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:16

Is it that women, collectively, across the globe, cannot be bothered anymore?

It's also because parenting is more of an investment these days. I'm conscious that I will need to support my dc for longer in a myriad of ways, I can see how that isn't attractive!

Destiny123 · 21/09/2025 08:16

Depends on the individual circumstances really as drs we don't finish uni til 24/25 if no gap year, nnoome has kids that early. My cohort are only starting kids now age 33/34

I've always wanted kids in my life but there's far too many kids in care that need loving homes so I'll foster once my career has settled in a few yrs (I haven't even finished training yet despite no mat leave/part time work etc

Supersonix · 21/09/2025 08:16

The average age to have a first baby in the uk is 30. That doesn’t really add up. Having a baby is a choice and not essential. I’m actually glad people are now realising this. Parenting is not for everyone. Plus this country is an island struggling to house everyone. Maybe it will go back the other way.

anotherside · 21/09/2025 08:15

TheAmusedQuail · 21/09/2025 08:06

Thinking personally, the second part of your post resonates. I'd planned to have 2 children. But my husband was so uninvested in sharing the household / child load that I wouldn't have a 2nd child. I worked just as many hours as he did but it was expected that I carried a good 90% of the housework, cooking and childcare.

When he wanted to think about a 2nd baby I told him I wasn't doing it all again. I've got friends who have only children because they didn't want to add to the load at home due to having demanding careers/work outside the home.

Men do indeed need to step up. IMO, they just aren't evolving as quickly as women. Most posts on mumsnet with any commentary about marriage reflect this.

Not excusing men’s relative laziness, but this issue is surely also emblematic of how Western society has changed over the last century. In the 20th century, women gained their independence and right to financial freedom. However, capitalism has absorbed much of the surplus profit, giving little back to the average family in terms of time off/leisure hours etc.

Capitalist societies are now demanding two human adults in a a household beaver away to serve its thirst for profit, whereas for most of the 20th century one would suffice. What was once sold as a individual choice (women leaving the home to enter the workforce/men helping more at home) is now a societal/capitalist demand. And even then millions of families are still struggling.

EuclidianGeometryFan · 21/09/2025 08:15

HelmholtzWatson · 21/09/2025 06:43

Perhaps the "current crop of male specimens" compare less favourably to previous generations, but equally it could be that women have raised their expectations beyond the level that many men are capable of achieving.

Which is basically saying that men are not capable of being equal to women.

Men are not capable of doing night feeds then going to work the next day, for weeks and weeks on end.
Men are not capable of running a house and doing most of the housework and parenting whilst still holding down a job.

If women can do it, why can't men?

BiologicalRobot · 21/09/2025 08:11

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

Oh dude...

How vomit inducing is that post, and your attitude is exactly the reason so many women are saying no. Men should be stepping up because it's the right thing to do. Why aren't they? Because they are porn addled selfish fuckers who are a waste of space usually.

Guytheskiinstructor · 21/09/2025 08:11

I’m not persuaded that money has anything to do with it. Parents are ridiculously well supported (by UK/US standards) in the Nordics and their birth rates are falling just like everywhere else.

Is it that women, collectively, across the globe, cannot be bothered anymore?

LGBirmingham · 21/09/2025 08:11

I find it hard to worry about our population decrease. We need less people. We are poisoning our planet and that is a bigger concern than too many pensioners. There is simply too many of us.

How we support our aged population will be the challenge of our time for Millenials, Gen Z, and whatever my child's generation will be called. But with ai and automation likely to take lots of jobs perhaps we can all work in care?

I think we need to campaign for policy that means that ai taking over jobs doesn't just mean more money for the super rich and everyone else in poverty. Compulsory 3 day weeks for everyone but remaining on full time pay maybe? Plenty of time to care fir granny then. You would need every country in the world to adopt the policy though.