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To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

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Mewling · 21/09/2025 08:53

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

Shot your bolt too soon with this one, my dude. A circumstance I suspect is frequent in your real life, too…

SpongeKnobNoPants · 21/09/2025 08:52

I only had one child because:

a) it's too expensive to raise more than one child on our income. We're not entitled to any benefits because of our earnings, yet we're living hand to mouth, living in an overdraft and using credit to pay for everyday things. I use secondhand buying & selling for much of mine and DCs clothing.

b) I had a neurodiverse child and the lack of real SEN support is appalling. I couldn't manage mentally if I had another SEN child. It's been a constant and still-ongoing battle for years, and it's truly draining.

c) I have to work to help financially support the family. DH only earns slightly more than me. We couldn't survive on his salary alone. BUT no matter how many chats/rows we have, the lions share of raising our DC and running the home still falls on me. And I actually put in more hours at work. Im absolutely knackered all the live long day, every day! I don’t have the time or energy for any more kids.

d) We have very little family support in the way of childcare. 'It takes a village' no longer applies. All our relatives are either: • also working endless hours
• are too sick/disabled
• have just had enough of raising kids themselves and want to enjoy retirement years
• live too far away

e) Due to the above, the childcare costs (nursery or childminders) were crippling when DC was younger. We actually sold several high value items off to pay for just 8hrs of childcare a week. Because before DC was 2yo we weren't entitled to any childcare funding. At 2yo, we finally qualified for 15hrs. That was an absolute godsend, but still not enough to stop us struggling. We simply could not afford this again.

f) working so many hours in a physically demanding job has brought on early osteoarthritis. Im in pain all the time. The NHS is a mess and I've been gaslit by doctors into thinking my joint pain is in my head, to one male doctor even passing me off to gynae...because, you know, if a woman has any pain, it must be because of her woman's bits!

g) the world has become such a mess. It's not a nice place. Why bring more humans into a mess created by humans? So they can either suffer in this mess or make the mess worse?

So many social amd economic factors. I do often think if I knew them what life would be like now, I wouldn't have even had one child.

Barnbrack · 21/09/2025 08:52

What a great rhetoric to force women back into the kitchen while actually giving eff all real statistics and with no focus at all on the well-being of women. Well done mysogynisto bot

EuclidianGeometryFan · 21/09/2025 08:51

anotherside · 21/09/2025 08:02

I reckon within a few years the problem of low birth rates will be solved with artificial births anyway which will solve all economic/age imbalance issues.

The trade off however being that it will begin the slide into a dystopian hellhole where the creation of humans is outsourced by governments to big tech in order to serve economic demand… our genetic makeup will be molded to serve the job market, and then the stage after that will likely be experimentation with direct insertion of nano technology so that humans can be controlled at will throughout their lives. Yay!

This is basically the plot of Brave New World by Huxley

Lavenderbluex · 21/09/2025 08:51

I’m 28 and have 2dc. My eldest is 4. I have my ex classmates on social media and I’m the only one who has kids. When I drop ds1 at school, most of the mothers are in their mid thirties.

Only a few are younger than me. I think it’s the norm now to have children older.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:51

RhaenysRocks · 21/09/2025 08:48

Unless women were absolutely bloody stupid, none. No way in hell would I risk a pregnancy by relying on a man remembering to do something that has far less impact on him than it would me.

But yet there are many young teenage girls who have multiple babies with multiple young fathers knowing full well that neither of them are taking any precautions.

Male birth control wouldn’t stop those women from reproducing with those men as they are already unreliable.

The only men who would take it are the men who are responsible and those are exactly the men who should be having children. How ironic.

Applesonthelawn · 21/09/2025 08:48

I always wanted lots of children but because I couldn't find a bloke good enough to have them with, I had a career whilst I was waiting. Eventually, at 43, I went it alone, so I have one biological child (and now some lovely stepchildren who are a blessing), all now adults.
In my experience, it was the lack of willing men. I always had men wanting to date me but they were not good father material. In one or two cases, I just couldn't have been married to them but they did go on to be fathers. I still know most of them and they haven't changed.
I think you can have loads of kids if you are irresponsible enough to bring them into the world not knowing how you are going to fund raising them and naive enough to believe their fathers will stick around when they are not built for the long haul either.
If you are responsible and want a solid man to help you along the way, you might not be so lucky.
It's really not all on the women.

RhaenysRocks · 21/09/2025 08:48

anotherside · 21/09/2025 08:06

I don’t know - not much of an impact? What do you think?

Unless women were absolutely bloody stupid, none. No way in hell would I risk a pregnancy by relying on a man remembering to do something that has far less impact on him than it would me.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:47

Okrr · 21/09/2025 08:44

What about your sons? That is reverse handmaidens.

There are lots of systems we could try but ours isn’t the worst there could be for either gender.

I have sons and would be heartbroken for them in this dystopian system.

Plus if you hadn’t noticed, many women like having a bf/husband for obvious and non/ obvious reasons.

If you want a community like that start one but it isn’t for everyone.

These women think they would be able to raise better men than we currently have so the boys would be allowed to stay and eventually procreate with their little darling daughters (who would hopefully then be happy to be mothers?)

Social engineering doesnt work.

Okrr · 21/09/2025 08:44

ReceiveIt · 21/09/2025 08:36

Then let's move to a matriarchal society. Whole communities of women living together and supporting one another with raising children. Men would live outside the community and only brought in for manual labour when necessary.

What about your sons? That is reverse handmaidens.

There are lots of systems we could try but ours isn’t the worst there could be for either gender.

I have sons and would be heartbroken for them in this dystopian system.

Plus if you hadn’t noticed, many women like having a bf/husband for obvious and non/ obvious reasons.

If you want a community like that start one but it isn’t for everyone.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:43

The main issue is that economist and politics created an impossible expectation of infinite growth.

What's the alternative though?

padso · 21/09/2025 08:43

We already have more over 65 yr olds then under 15s, it why governments have relied on immigration so much.

ForAzureSeal · 21/09/2025 08:43

FourIsNewSix · 21/09/2025 00:08

I don't see declining population size as bad thing. The humankind was never this numerous and there is only one planet.
And through the history, there have always been childless women, those unmarried aunties from literature were real.

The main issue is that economist and politics created an impossible expectation of infinite growth.

The main issue is that economist and politics created an impossible expectation of infinite growth.

Absolutely agree 💯

sashh · 21/09/2025 08:41

We live in a society that doesn't make having children easy. To buy a house and have children you need two incomes. And not everybody wants to have children in the first place.

If this is a problem then as a society we need to make it easier. Maternity leave at full pay would be a start. Some sort of 'leave of absence' for either parent for about 5 years with your job held open for you to return.

Free or affordable good wrap around child care of various forms, so not just nursery and after school clubs but other options.

If a relationship ends then there should be a sort of pension paid to the parent who does the childcare / dentist and Dr appointments etc should receive it and 90% of the time that is mum. The amount paid should be paid by the other parent, not every week / month but it should be added like a student loan is but with no cut off date.

Obviously get rid of the two child cap on benefits.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:41

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 08:36

Nothing

no women in their right mind would trust them

and very very few men would take it - ego - can’t mess with the might meat and two veg - makes them less of a man - or some other such bollocks

birth control is a woman’s problem they have no intention on changing that position

some might lie and say they are on it not to pull out
like they say now “I’ll pull out”

if anything the male contraceptive pill will result in more babies - if women are daft enough to believe them

Very possible and it’s very interesting.

I think there are many men who would take it but I think the wrong men wouldn’t take it and it would lead to more of what we have… fatherless children and single mother households.

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 08:40

anotherside · 21/09/2025 08:02

I reckon within a few years the problem of low birth rates will be solved with artificial births anyway which will solve all economic/age imbalance issues.

The trade off however being that it will begin the slide into a dystopian hellhole where the creation of humans is outsourced by governments to big tech in order to serve economic demand… our genetic makeup will be molded to serve the job market, and then the stage after that will likely be experimentation with direct insertion of nano technology so that humans can be controlled at will throughout their lives. Yay!

no chance

science is no where near being able to create the perfect conditions of a uterus to grow a baby

and why would you? It’s cheaper to just take away birth control choices from women and give men more rights over access to fanny you know THEIR meaning men’s sexual needs, neigh expected requirements

or perhaps all the men go gay as they all seem into anal fucking right now - that could solve a few problems

TizerorFizz · 21/09/2025 08:39

@anotherside Giving little back! Capitalism has given everything! We live a very different life from our parents. Utterly different from my grandparents! Work conditions and benefits from work are greatly enhanced for the majority. Our taxes pay for the nhs and those levied from business. Of course capitalism has improved lives - or what system? We all work for the state? We mostly have cars and holidays. Contrast that with 100 years ago.

The costs of being a parent are high. Women still do too much in many households but expectations of our needs and wants are high too and people want a certain standard of living. 60 years ago it was different. Now women want to work, provide for their families and keep their brains working. There’s not much well priced help and it limits family size. As does buying a house and living costs in general. Many families need grandparents to help so no rest for those women.

roshi42 · 21/09/2025 08:39

Feelthabreeze · 21/09/2025 06:33

Many women wouldn’t. Aside from the impact on their bodies there are other considerations that unfortunately many parents don’t think about.

I have high earning friends that could financially afford a lot more but chose to stop at a certain number so they could give quality time to each child.

In a lot of 9+ children families you see older siblings basically having to be mini parents when they don’t want to be.

And the real parents have lost sight of what’s actually going on with their children beyond their basic needs - education, food, clothing etc.

I am not saying very large families can’t be done well but I haven’t seen it.

That’s true, I’m probably being slightly glib. I’m a very happy single mother to one. I absolutely can’t afford a nice life for her if I try and have more so I’ve stopped. If I was wealthy I would almost certainly make a different decision though. Just pointing out that finances are a major factor in many people’s decisions to have fewer (or any) children.

(By ‘wealthy’ I do mean well off enough to afford staff/help/childcare!! I wouldn’t want to give up work/my career. But would have more children if I could manage without having to.)

padso · 21/09/2025 08:39

Well the planet can’t sustain continuous population growth indefinitely

Who has claimed otherwise?

I do understand the economic issues but there does have to be a limit, I don’t necessarily see global population decline as a bad thing.

A shrinking population that is largely older is a bad thing, more fighting over resources and more international conflict. I would have loved to experience gc but will not be encouraging it, their lives will be awful.

Badgerandfox227 · 21/09/2025 08:37

It’s cost of living. Having children has a hugely negative impact on finances, on top of that it’s harder and harder for young couples to get on the housing ladder and be in a suitable financial position to have kids - virtually impossible in your 20’s.

ReceiveIt · 21/09/2025 08:36

Then let's move to a matriarchal society. Whole communities of women living together and supporting one another with raising children. Men would live outside the community and only brought in for manual labour when necessary.

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 08:36

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:00

I asked earlier and nobody responded. What do you think the impact of a male birth control pill would be on this problem?

Nothing

no women in their right mind would trust them

and very very few men would take it - ego - can’t mess with the might meat and two veg - makes them less of a man - or some other such bollocks

birth control is a woman’s problem they have no intention on changing that position

some might lie and say they are on it not to pull out
like they say now “I’ll pull out”

if anything the male contraceptive pill will result in more babies - if women are daft enough to believe them

NoSoapJustUseShowerGel · 21/09/2025 08:34

Well the planet can’t sustain continuous population growth indefinitely. I do understand the economic issues but there does have to be a limit, I don’t necessarily see global population decline as a bad thing.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:33

it sounds all great from a simplistic environmental point of view but it’s a disaster. The population will become incredibly unbalanced. Many many old people. Not many young people.

Huge ramifications economically, culturally & socially of a largely older population.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:32

So yes, men need to step up to do their share, but if we’re being honest the above set up is unsustainable.

I think that's why the birth rates are as they are. I have younger siblings, relatives & colleagues who are just not prepared to have dc. They like their jobs & are good at their jobs, they like financial freedom etc. children threaten all that.