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To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

OP posts:
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8
slashlover · 21/09/2025 09:14

ChihuahuaKeeper · 21/09/2025 09:09

It's called mumsnet. The clue is in the title. It isn't a good place to gloat about how clever you are that you are not a mum.

Who's gloating?

padso · 21/09/2025 09:13

@Mewling I really think birth rates has influence the abortion laws in the US.

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 09:12

ChihuahuaKeeper · 21/09/2025 09:09

It's called mumsnet. The clue is in the title. It isn't a good place to gloat about how clever you are that you are not a mum.

oh piss off. If there is one thing I can’t stand more than anything it’s women who think that they are better than others simply because they gave birth.

My DHs ex wife is one of these golden vaginas who thinks that by popping a human out she can claim all sorts of special accolades.

padso · 21/09/2025 09:12

It's very sad, and in the case of the white British people in London - has almost led to their extinction. 90% of the primary school population is born to mothers borm abroad.

You can argue that there has been some white flight but there are a number of reason for that. Extinction?! That statistic isn't true

VeryViolet · 21/09/2025 09:12

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

Thanks for that useful piece of advice, Retired Man. What advice do you have about getting men to remain committed? If it's ongoing brain-melting sex, then wouldn't having babies be a bad idea? Because 2am feed exhaustion, sore breasts, episiotomy scars etc etc tend to reduce the amount of brain-melting sex on offer.

Mewling · 21/09/2025 09:10

There’s another thread talking about The Handmaid’s Tale TV show and honestly, I don't think America is far off from this kind of fuckery and I hope to God that Britain doesn’t follow.

I really don’t think we can underestimate how damaging posts like these are. It attempts to normalise this batshittery and frame it as reasoned debate.

padso · 21/09/2025 09:09

I think we need to campaign for policy that means that ai taking over jobs doesn't just mean more money for the super rich and everyone else in poverty.

Good luck with that!

ChihuahuaKeeper · 21/09/2025 09:09

slashlover · 21/09/2025 04:59

So you need to have kids to post on AIBU? To discuss politics? To talk about what TV shows you like? To ask about a place you want to go on holiday?

It's called mumsnet. The clue is in the title. It isn't a good place to gloat about how clever you are that you are not a mum.

Onegingerhead · 21/09/2025 09:09

menopausalmare · 21/09/2025 08:56

The idea that a government will support women is laughable. The only person a woman can rely on is herself.

Yes, exactly. That’s why I only had one — it’s the maximum I knew I could afford on my own if shit ever hit the fan.

And I’m not entirely convinced that even if fathers contributed more, it would suddenly lead to loads more babies. Children take up huge amounts of a family’s resources, and unless women are stripped of their rights and forced to have as many as biology allows, I just can’t see how birth rates will ever climb significantly.

EasternStandard · 21/09/2025 09:08

LGBirmingham · 21/09/2025 08:11

I find it hard to worry about our population decrease. We need less people. We are poisoning our planet and that is a bigger concern than too many pensioners. There is simply too many of us.

How we support our aged population will be the challenge of our time for Millenials, Gen Z, and whatever my child's generation will be called. But with ai and automation likely to take lots of jobs perhaps we can all work in care?

I think we need to campaign for policy that means that ai taking over jobs doesn't just mean more money for the super rich and everyone else in poverty. Compulsory 3 day weeks for everyone but remaining on full time pay maybe? Plenty of time to care fir granny then. You would need every country in the world to adopt the policy though.

Edited

Seems like a good time to stop relying on population increase every decade and use AI / tech to help deal with the decrease.

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 09:07

Foofedifiknow · 21/09/2025 09:05

Musk trolling on MN again - creepy AF OP

Ooooo where’s the trad wife one?
let’s rip that apart as well!

Mewling · 21/09/2025 09:06

anon666 · 21/09/2025 08:53

I see what youre saying OP. It's essentially that by delaying pairing off beyond the original biological or societal norm, people are missing the window in which they should be having children.

I do think it is men that need to step up, but maybe society or social policy could have a hand in that. The societal expectation for men to stick around for their kids has radically changed.

I know of so many men who abandon their wives to look after the kids. They make some grudging and tiny contribution financially and then a weekly or fortnightly visit. 🤔 Its crap.

Those who do stay often revert to zero in terms of mental load and housework.

Yes, there are exceptions, but this is reported from a modern, advanced and developed country (the UK) where women are legally equal. We still pick up the lion's share of all the caring of every generation, and men largely float through life having it all done for them.

God only knows how women get on in the more backward countries. We're voting with our feet against being completely shafted once we have kids.

It's very sad, and in the case of the white British people in London - has almost led to their extinction. 90% of the primary school population is born to mothers borm abroad. If it weren't for this ability to attractpeople from overseas, the capital would be a ghost town.

I was somewhat with you until you claimed that White British people are virtually extinct in London. The racists always out themselves, they can’t help it.

Foofedifiknow · 21/09/2025 09:05

DoinFineIThink · 21/09/2025 00:41

What is it with all these type of posts lately?
So tonight I've seen a trad wife style one, and now one about "falling birth rates"
Quick, get the women to have more babies 🙄

Musk trolling on MN again - creepy AF OP

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 09:05

Keepingthingsinteresting · 21/09/2025 08:55

This is disgusting. So women now have another “job”. Maybe encourage men to be less shit and pathetic.

Actually it’s good to know they think like this

another reason to give most of them a wide berth

the confidence in the open display of manosphere attitudes probably contributes to the rapid decline in birthrate - until the Andrew Tate’s of this world started mouthing off and you could see the number of men cheering him on men could pretend “I’m one of the good guys” until it was too late

perhaps now women are on high alert - looking for the red flags of being trapped with an utter dick and going “no thank you” much earlier before becoming ensnared

knowledge is power even if what you find out is less than inspiring!

anyolddinosaur · 21/09/2025 09:03

Good. The best chance of the human race surviving is if there are fewer of them.

Older people already pay more in tax than the young and as more people have workplace pensions state pensions will become even less important. Old people will be funding themselves from their savings even more than they do already. Also when women dont have children more will be working full time.

JadziaD · 21/09/2025 09:03

I know so many women who have 1 child and are single. Women who were i a relationship which then failed. In most cases, the women realised what a dick the man was and kicked him out or he abandoned her and she has not been interested/able in a new relationship ans definitely not in more children.

Ultimately I believe falling birth rates are because women are far more aware, either before children or after their first, that men are too often useless and awful and our standards have gone up. 50 years ago, these women didnt have those options - they would not have been able to leave or they would have settled, and had more children.

Similarly I know women who have stayed in relationships for the children etc but who I suspect, if they had had their choice, would have had MORE children. They just couldn't based on the practicalities of having an extra child already in the form if the man they married.

Satisfiedwithanapple · 21/09/2025 09:03

MIL is that you?

It isn’t actually normal for a lot of people to have babies until their 30s. If someone has one by 28, lovely but what a random number to pick based on some strange stat.

bookworm14 · 21/09/2025 09:02

The maker of the documentary quoted in the OP is working with right-wing former Hungarian president Katalin Novak (who also served as minister for Family Affairs under Orban) to set up some sort of charity/think tank aimed at ‘stabilising the population’. There is some indication that Elon Musk is/would like to be involved.

Just putting that out there.

Longlivethebling · 21/09/2025 09:01

It's not really about how much money people have, the issue will be when the majority of the population do not work. There won't be enough doctors to treat everyone as there won't be enough working people to meet demand. And that is true for builders, water supply, food supply, everything. A gentle drop in birth rates we could manage, but this is drop off a cliff stuff and he is warning that it coming. If young people want to settle down and have a family it is a lot less likely to happen than it used to. If a young person doesn't want kids, lucky them, this is the best time to be alive.

NautilusLionfish · 21/09/2025 08:57

Am not too fussed. Many species have died out before us. We aren't that special that we shouldn't die out as a species. Besides, we are the most harmful of species and by our own standards we should be rooted out. The other species that we are destroying can may be thrive.
This is the cost of the world (politicians, businesses, an overwhelming majority of whom are men) using women and not valuing us. Now they want to convince us to replenish their tax and profit bases. No they can fo

menopausalmare · 21/09/2025 08:56

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:09

There was a suggestion in one interview that government needs to step in and tell young women it will have their back if men let them down, in order to persuade them to have children at a younger age.

Though it was also asked, what would you rather be at 50: a divorced childless women, or a divorced woman with children? Maybe the risk of a bad man is worth taking, if you want children enough. Not for me to say.

The idea that a government will support women is laughable. The only person a woman can rely on is herself.

Keepingthingsinteresting · 21/09/2025 08:55

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

This is disgusting. So women now have another “job”. Maybe encourage men to be less shit and pathetic.

TheWonkYes · 21/09/2025 08:55

I have no idea on the whys as it is everywhere - although worse the more patriarchal and already crowded the society eg Japan, South Korea and counter intuitively as population gets smaller the more crowded the cities get as young people have to move there for jobs. When your rural town drops from 10,000 to 5,000 no of careers drops too.

But the two actual problems are economic - capitalism relies on everyone expanding consumerism - and support, financial and care for aging populations.

I think maybe we need to look harder at those problems than hand wringing at the decline.

anon666 · 21/09/2025 08:54

.

anon666 · 21/09/2025 08:53

I see what youre saying OP. It's essentially that by delaying pairing off beyond the original biological or societal norm, people are missing the window in which they should be having children.

I do think it is men that need to step up, but maybe society or social policy could have a hand in that. The societal expectation for men to stick around for their kids has radically changed.

I know of so many men who abandon their wives to look after the kids. They make some grudging and tiny contribution financially and then a weekly or fortnightly visit. 🤔 Its crap.

Those who do stay often revert to zero in terms of mental load and housework.

Yes, there are exceptions, but this is reported from a modern, advanced and developed country (the UK) where women are legally equal. We still pick up the lion's share of all the caring of every generation, and men largely float through life having it all done for them.

God only knows how women get on in the more backward countries. We're voting with our feet against being completely shafted once we have kids.

It's very sad, and in the case of the white British people in London - has almost led to their extinction. 90% of the primary school population is born to mothers borm abroad. If it weren't for this ability to attractpeople from overseas, the capital would be a ghost town.