To think the time is coming when a universal basic income is seen as a necessity?

It happened with housing benefit if I remember correctly. Landlords started putting the rent up to match the LHA obviously today the rents are well above but back when the dinosaurs (joke before someone bites) were alive and rents were cheap.

I remember hearing mum and her friend once talking about how their landlord had given them a new tenancy at the higher rate to claim more but would be splitting the higher amount.

I can't see how it wouldn't be inflationary. Give everyone a basic income. Most people would still work to improve their position, they would then be able to pay more and have a higher standard of living. Those not working would get essentially squeezed out for resources and living standards would lower, then the basic income would need to raise. We already pretty much give everyone through benefits or minimum wage a base level of income.

You'll never get all countries to agree to UBI, just like we'll never get all countries to agree to a global tax system for multinationals.

Just catching up with the thread.
The issue of off shore accounts being untouchable, surely if UBI was to be a global event - after all AI and the internet don't just happen and change jobs in UK - perhaps this would force them to cough up? Once they realise they are outliers and no more money can come in because everyone will have no £ to spend unless they complete the circle of economy?

Not sure I've thought that through properly but I think there's something there that could potentially hold their feet to the fire.

There are plenty of professions where a "relevant" degree is pretty much essential, such as doctors, vets, dentists, architects, etc. Where the degree is pretty much "tailored" to the profession.

Adding in to that is other "mid range" professions such as accountancy, solicitors, etc., where there are further professional exams to take so the subject degree itself is pretty irrelevant as relevant further studying is required to pass the professional exams for that profession, although obviously having an accountancy degree is a "help" for accountancy and having a law degree is a "help" for solicitor, but by no means essential or even recommended really. Lots of accountants, for example, seem to have Music or History degrees but then they have to spend a bit longer to sit more professional exams as they'll get no exemptions as they'll have not done any relevant modules as part of their degree.

Of course, lots of jobs/careers/professions specify a degree as a minimum entry requirement (or at least recommended minimum entry requirement), so even though a "Mickey Mouse" degree may be of no use/help for the job, it's a "door opener" to get through the recruitment/weeding out stages.

Might stop some of those Micky mouse degrees. Though I don’t know anyone who went to uni and actually uses their degree or works in the field they trained in at all.

I see a move away from uni now, apart from vocational degrees such as veterinary and medicine. Everyone is chasing those elusive apprenticeships.

And getting loans to cover their costs of living often making it "cheaper" than finding their own house share/flat or whatever. It's really a bit of a no brainer to go and have your own place for 3 years rather than living in your parent's box room, having your freedom to socialise etc., all paid by the taxpayer, and only having to pay it back (or some of it) if you get a relatively well paid job! Who wouldn't??

I really don't think it's down to confidence about the future employment prospects in all cases. Obviously, it is for those wanting to have decent/professional jobs that NEED a degree, but for lots of people, they just "drift" into Uni with no real plans for the future and just do it for "rite of passage" that they don't have to pay for!

It depends whether governments "can" tax big corporations as no single country can dictate the global taxes paid by multinational companies based elsewhere in the World. All the UK can do is tax on what goes on in the UK, i.e. employers NIC on staff wages, VAT on sales values, import duties on imports (which can cause retaliation from other countries and harm us in the long run), special taxes on certain goods sold here, such as petrol, alcohol, tobacco, etc. The taxation of global firms is a massive problem faced by numerous countries all over the World - it needs global agreement which will never happen as the tax haven and "low tax" countries will never give up their tax haven status as it generates huge sums of income for them, unless we nuke or invade them or "bribe" them to stop being tax havens!

This is one of the problems that firms will have to address and plan for. Rather than not taking on recruits, they'll have to balance the numbers and take on fewer recruits so there's still the flow of people coming through.

Same happened with accountancy firms during covid who didn't take on graduates which then caught them out one and two years later as there wasn't the same number of 1 and 2 year experienced staff coming through to do the 1/2 year level work when the years 2 needed to be moved up to do year 3 work so lots of levels were "held back" as they couldn't progress due to leaving a vacuum behind them.

It's all perfectly solvable but firms need to actually plan for it. In my son's firm (one of the UK biggest insurance firms), he and the other graduates barely have anything to do and enjoy very generous study leave packages, allowances to spend time doing local voluntary/charity work, giving talks in schools, attending career fairs, etc. He reckons he does about the equivalent of 2 full days of working per week despite being "full time". The firm are clear and honest that they want a "flow" of staff coming through and are happy for them to take several years to qualify whilst getting acquainted with the firm's systems and ethos and values, and only really expect them to "earn their keep" around years 4/5 onwards. They just want a ready supply of internal candidates ready and able to been thrown into the deep end to replace existing internal actuaries and accountants as they themselves move up the career ladder, retire, emigrate or move to other employers. Yes, potentially an expensive way to do it, but it's their long term plan/vision to recruit at higher levels from within rather than having to pay extortionate rates for freelancers to fill skills gaps etc.

I think the likes of barristers etc will have to do the same if there's going to be a drying up of younger trainees/newly qualified if work dries up for lower levels of work.

My only issue with a UBI is that it will push prices up as businesses of all types then "know" that there is a basic level of funding and will charge accordingly for their goods and services.

But to find that, companies that automate jobs would need to pay a special tax, and we all know the government won't tax big corporations...

Increased use of AI will create a lot more jobs than it replaces. Older people will need to show some initiative and upskill/retrain and younger ones will need to consider their future career plans more carefully.

you mean they are treating it like governments treat 4 year elections?
Dont worry about 10 years time you might not be in power so it will be someone else’s problem

Kicking the can down the road and hopefully improving their chances with a degree

I meant to say "so do I".

So am I. I also see the reduction in new recruits. However, instead of corporations worrying about where will barristers come from, the capitalistic view is we'll deal with the fallout from cost cutting when the time comes, usually at the clients' expense, just like in any other industry. I got my LLM and am now more in an advisory capacity in another EU country, reviewing emerging issues that affect corporate governance and data privacy rules, and I find the trajectory to be troubling.

I mentioned this in a post above. It’s already happening in chambers I know of, they are already reducing numbers of recruits. It’s a job you learn by climbing the rungs and doing the basic work, you don’t and can’t just walk in on day one as a barrister, you may have a degree but ultimately you learn it on the job.
If the juniors aren’t being recruited and trained, what job will they go into and where will the future barristers come from?

I'm not so optimistic. For example in a law firm, AI can replace a team of paralegals. Sure, a couple of junior solicitors may be trained to check the output of AI, but that doesn't create additional jobs. In fact, less solicitors will be needed. Barristers will still be required, but all solicitors will not find work as barristers if they passed the bar. Meanwhile all the paralegals and legal assistants out of work...where would they train in? They can't all become healthcare workers. Granted I'm looking at worst case scenarios, but I truly don't believe this is so far off, because that's what businesses want. We already face the infuriating automated chatbots for customer service everywhere, and it's spreading fast.

Lookng at coal, steel and shipyard industrial towns that have been left as ghost towns, I don't think the "when jobs disappear new ones develop" is entirely true either. Some of these towns and entire regions like the Rust Belt in the US have never recovered. AI can cause this ghost town effect on a much larger scale. Funnily enough, I never hear the argument that new jobs emerge when old ones leave when jobs are outsourced to other countries.

Well considering birth rate is dropping there won’t be as many people scrambling for the jobs.

People are still going to need to maintain any types of automated machines. It’s just going to change what jobs people need to train for.

Yes maybe a tax on companies who have cut down too many jobs due to robots/Ai to incentivise keeping more human staff even part time.

We will end up with more mechanics and electricians and such. As things will always need fixing.

Ai currently still has so many faults and glitches.

Im not against a universal income either just don’t see how it would be fully funded to keep every person in a healthy life. I’ve always said footballers and singers shouldn’t be making millions while our brain surgeons and nurses are on what they earn when they do actual meaningful jobs. We don’t need football we do need healthcare. The wrong people are paid fortunes. Even the discrepancy between say women footballers and men. Yes I get it’s the sponsors but it’s always left a bitter taste.

What we knew as GIGO back in the day. Ie Garbage In, Garbage Out.

As others have already pointed out some of us have lived through these dire predictions beforehand, and know that as some jobs disappear others will take their place.

Strangely enough I heard on a news item here yesterday (not the UK) that there are record numbers of students signing up to attend university, so obviously there are a lot of young people who don't share your doom and gloom prophesy.

With the possible exceptions of the industries of healthcare, agriculture, and education (more to do with data privacy of students more than anything else), I believe all other sectors are susceptible. Especially legal, finance, customer service, software programming, coding and other data heavy industries. Artistic and creative industries are also facing a threat since now a person in front of a screen can create a human like model in a video...eliminating an entire crew of models and technicians and related costs. If self driving vehicles take off, there'll be an entire trucking industry out of work, along with taxies and delivery drivers. This may seem unreal at the moment, but corporations are investing billions in getting this technology to work so that they can profit from it. Being dismissive of the threat is not a smart strategy.

As for your first question, I don't belive even those who think of UBI as a viable solution to prevent the collapse of the economy have all the answers. The real question to those who don't support UBI may be : What are some alternative solutions?

You’re kind of missing the fact that the world will continue to evolve as AI takes a grip on ‘programmable’ work. You are assuming the status quo PLUS AI, which has never been the way the world has worked. As old industries/careers/jobs die out (normally due to advances in technology), new ones emerge.

It’s by the by anyway. No-one will agree to pay for a UBI. No-one.