To wonder how the UK will look in 3 years time?

Illegal immigration isn’t rising as far as I know - although I will concede we have no figures for it as they’re here illegally and as such aren’t being recorded, so it’s hard to prove that either way. But what more would you do to suggest Labour curb illegal immigration? They deport illegal immigrants as soon as they are located (around 24.5k between July 24 & March 25).

It’s not going to get better. Too many people fighting for not enough housing. God help our younger generation, it’s fucking grim.

The country is on its knees and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know supply and demand of housing affects everyone.

Labour and the Tories have had their chance and nothings changed and it’s the British public who are suffering. Reform will get in at the next election and they can’t make it any worse than the state it’s now!

When I started reading your post I thought you’re a bit rude about the faux middle classes, however what you say is true and by the time I’d read your full post, I thought she’s bludy right though!!

Taxes will go up, publics services will be worse for the majority - a two tier system will start to operate, prioritising those who Labour seems worthy.

I do wonder that once people realize that state pension will be means tested they will want to keep more of their own money. You can't tax people without a strong vision of what society/ government offers - we don't currently have that from either party.

Reform will be in.

AI will replace huge swathes of the economy but public cuts isn’t the answer. People of all political persuasions never seem to like the idea of a universal basic income but I really can’t see any alternative. Future societies will not need people to work. So we either punish 50% of the country for what is a technological/historical reality by allowing them to starve/form roaming street gangs or we collectively agree that people should be entitled to a basic level of income which is paid for by everyone - predominantly the mega corporations which will have replaced human labour with machines. Unfortunately the future will require visionary politicians. Currently we have a spineless and reactionary political class that is puts kowtowing to mob mentality and corporation profit above realistic and sustainable policy.

Of course the numbers on UC are increasing: people are still switching over from legacy benefits. UC claimants will continue to increase until managed migration is complete.

Around 38% of people on UC are in work. They get UC because their earnings are not sufficient to meet the needs of their families and the cost of their housing. They are the households who would previously have been getting working and child tax credits and housing benefit.

Those on ESA are currently being migrated, and I expect that there will be a huge outcry when the UC figures show a rise in the number of UC claimants who are ill or disabled, ignoring the fact there will eventually be no-one on ESA.

The increase in PIP is partly attributable to the pisspoor state of the NHS, especially mental health services, but also due to long waits for hospital treatment, physiotherapy etc. In my county, the Early Intervention In Psychosis Service seems to have dwindled into non-existence and people with long term MH issues seem to go for a couple of years without seeing a psychiatrist.

But it's also partly attributable to more people becoming aware that they are probably entitled to PIP. I do 1-2 PIP applications a week, and my client group's primary issue is mental illness. An awful lot of them have no idea that they are entitled to PIP and they have been struggling in poverty for years because they simply didn't know.

Hmmm I honestly don’t know. I think we really do have an absolutely awful government. Off the back of them ballsing the economy up even further I see more businesses closing, higher unemployment and food inflation so high that certain foods will literally be off the table all together. It will be South African prices for meat and dairy.

Off the back of this I think there will be a Conservative /Reform coalition with high focus on crime and migration but still nothing will get done as the human right lawyers have such a strong grip on the country that nothing will get done. So I see massive stagnation, filth and crime everywhere and boarded up buildings.

It'll be worse, but everyone will keep on keeping on because that we seem to do.

Reform will be taken more seriously.

Interest rates will continue to drop. More schemes to help people get mortgages. Huge council tax increases. More subsidised public transport. Astronomical food bills.
Benefits will be frozen. Possibly income tax increases.

I think AI will wipe out middle management.

this thread is so depressing

I’m no fan of Trump but we need optimism

if labour doesn’t curb illegal immigraton and stop censoring those unhappy about it, farage will be in and I am beginning to think that might be a good thing

Well the roads round here are being resurfaced after years of Tory potholes...so lets hope the goernment keep that up.

The uber rich will get richer.

The poor will get poorer.

The squeezed middle class will be even more squeezed to prop up the poor and the old.

It’s actually 22 plus the 50. As the public sector pay rises last summer were equal to the so called black hole, it’s arguable 72 in 12 months. And growing daily.

Three years?

Abandon hope all ye who enter here.

Three months will do the trick - after Reeves’s next budget (read bout of mismanagement, theft and false accounting).

Perhaps she will activate the waterworks again…

Then we have the smarmy faux middle class earning 60k

just love your gross generalisation. Politics of envy, vilifying people who are like everyone, getting on in life and doing their best. The people earning £60K will be in the higher rate tax band, paying their way and being successful having gone to University, gt a degree and secured paid employment. When did that become a crime? They aren't aliens with 3 heads, they're no different to people on £50k, or £40k! I presume by "outsourcing" you mean being able to pay for a cleaner or a gardener, ie providing work that other people want to do and have small businesses selling those services. Oh the crime!

in the next three years, I guess people in this country and here on Mumsnet will continue to be negative, snipe at each other, begrudge any success and turn in on each other, how absolutely counterproductive.

At the moment a lot of people feel like they’re paying more but getting less because of underinvestment over years, not because the concept of higher taxation itself can’t work. Countries with higher tax burdens, like the Scandinavian countries, often have stronger economies, better healthcare, and less inequality and I’m pretty sure people don’t flee those in droves because they see value in what they get back.

but higher earners on PAYE here pay tax in line with other European countries. It's the middle & lower earners who don't & it's difficult to tax them more as so much of their income is taken up by housing.

You can't turn the UK into a Scandi
country without huge cash reserves. We never recovered from 08, austerity fucked public services & now changing demographics make any growth highly unlikely.

I'm absolutely fed up with politicians. They don't need to get much right. Sort out the NHS, Build more homes, lock up criminals, curb immigration.

And the billions needed to fund this come from?

Increased taxes
Worsening public services
inevitably with the ageing population

What a depressing thread.

I agree with this.

There are also higher tax payers that are fed up with the othering and division increasingly popular with media and politicians. The continued push of (often easily disproven) sound bites above facts is just depressing, but doesn’t seem to be changing any time soon.

Covid was also mentioned, saying most people will adapt. I think there is a distinct lack of even minor adaptations. Many are simply ignoring the research, the data, the aftermath on peoples’ health after each wave of infections and the subsequent impacts on the economy. Many even talk about it as though it’s historic, as though lots more people won’t become disabled by this wave.

Not much different.

In three years it will be the same as now.

• too many people making foolish decisions and expecting the state to pick up the pieces.
• too many genuinely needy going without
• 10% of people, still volunteering, putting in the extra hours, trying to make a difference
• 80% of people moaning but contributing very little

I get your point about sustainability, but I’m not sure it’s fair to say only lower rate taxpayers support fairer taxation. Plenty of higher earners also believe in paying more if it means better public services and infrastructure. The issue isn’t just the tax rate, it’s also about how effectively that money is used.

At the moment a lot of people feel like they’re paying more but getting less because of underinvestment over years, not because the concept of higher taxation itself can’t work. Countries with higher tax burdens, like the Scandinavian countries, often have stronger economies, better healthcare, and less inequality and I’m pretty sure people don’t flee those in droves because they see value in what they get back.

The real danger is when services are cut so much that even those who can afford to stay decide it’s not worth it anymore, not just because of the tax rate but because of the quality of life.

The only people I know who say they wouldn't mind higher taxes are the lower rate taxpayers. Respectively, the taxes here are already super high with pretty much no benefit. More tax rises are not sustainable, not only that but all they will do is force more people to leave. If more higher rate tax payers leave, how will they continue to fund the welfare state? Surely people must see that this is not sustainable and will screw the country long term.