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Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
EasternStandard · 28/07/2025 21:11

suburburban · 28/07/2025 21:06

Shouldn’t they be funding other pensions as they are presumably High tax payers and highly skilled?

isn’t that what we keep being told

Apparently.

Plus everything was ‘fully costed’ at GE and the last budget was a one off massive tax hike. Until Autumn that is.. didn’t last long.

BurntBroccoli · 28/07/2025 21:06

Papyrophile · 28/07/2025 20:25

Farm incomes have rocketed recently? Gosh, I must tell the neighbours, but I am fairly sure that they will tell me the only reason they have managed to sell their milk for more is that they have built a self-service 24-hour kiosk so they capture every penny from every milking without selling milk to supermarkets. I buy milk from the herd I watch graze every day. I see the farmer bringing his herd in for milking at 6am and again in the evening and I have bought his branded refillable glass bottles, which I clean and sterilise. He's outsourced the hygiene to me, and I'm not unhappy with the transaction. The milk marketing board pay about 45ppl, and the end consumer (me) pays £1.30ppl. So he gets more than double what the middle man takes out.

They have definitely grown!
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/total-income-from-farming-in-the-uk/total-income-from-farming-in-the-uk-in-2024Total income from farming in the UK in 2024 - GOV.UK

Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?
suburburban · 28/07/2025 21:06

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 20:57

Have to fund the pensions of the 2m migrants Sunak let in.

Shouldn’t they be funding other pensions as they are presumably High tax payers and highly skilled?

isn’t that what we keep being told

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 20:57

EasternStandard · 28/07/2025 20:54

And the NI increases. Plus more taxes in Autumn likely.

Have to fund the pensions of the 2m migrants Sunak let in.

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 20:56

Papyrophile · 28/07/2025 20:25

Farm incomes have rocketed recently? Gosh, I must tell the neighbours, but I am fairly sure that they will tell me the only reason they have managed to sell their milk for more is that they have built a self-service 24-hour kiosk so they capture every penny from every milking without selling milk to supermarkets. I buy milk from the herd I watch graze every day. I see the farmer bringing his herd in for milking at 6am and again in the evening and I have bought his branded refillable glass bottles, which I clean and sterilise. He's outsourced the hygiene to me, and I'm not unhappy with the transaction. The milk marketing board pay about 45ppl, and the end consumer (me) pays £1.30ppl. So he gets more than double what the middle man takes out.

What?
MMB went in 1994.
and has nothing to do with state pensions.

Farm incomes have shot up, esp in Dairy, meat, less so in arable....

Do you buy offal?

EasternStandard · 28/07/2025 20:54

ThatBoldBear · 28/07/2025 20:18

Just pointing out Labour have done some things, stupid things but still.

Do you mean VAT on the luxury that is private schooling?

The ‘education and vocational training’ tax.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vat-on-education-and-vocational-training-notice-70130#:~:text=From%201%20January%202025%2C%20education,VAT%20exempt%20before%20this%20date.

Farm IHT is at such a low level it raises almost nothing at all? i'm not a fan but as farm incomes have rocketed recently, i'm sure they'll manage.
Yes that farm tax.

Higher taxes
More growth
Yes worth another go at taxing ourselves into growth. It’s worked so well every other time in every country that tries it. Let’s start with school children and farms.LOL

And the NI increases. Plus more taxes in Autumn likely.

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 20:50

ThatBoldBear · 28/07/2025 20:18

Just pointing out Labour have done some things, stupid things but still.

Do you mean VAT on the luxury that is private schooling?

The ‘education and vocational training’ tax.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vat-on-education-and-vocational-training-notice-70130#:~:text=From%201%20January%202025%2C%20education,VAT%20exempt%20before%20this%20date.

Farm IHT is at such a low level it raises almost nothing at all? i'm not a fan but as farm incomes have rocketed recently, i'm sure they'll manage.
Yes that farm tax.

Higher taxes
More growth
Yes worth another go at taxing ourselves into growth. It’s worked so well every other time in every country that tries it. Let’s start with school children and farms.LOL

😂😂😩

Papyrophile · 28/07/2025 20:43

Obviously, it's not an option if you live in an urban or suburban area, but in the rural SW where we are surrounded by growers and producers of food, I (like most people) keep change in the car and buy a lot of fruit, veg and flowers from the stalls on the side of the road where people sell their surplus produce. I buy my turkey direct from the producer, and pork tends to come from a smallholder who has two or three breeding sows from a breed that's highly regarded for eating quality but not fast-growing. I use two butchers in different towns who both buy carcasses direct from the farm. Both have splendid meat and their prime joints are top quality. One has refined elegant butchery skills and the other is brilliant at seasoning, but unless the customer can differentiate and is prepared to pay for something better than burger mince, then it's irrelevant. Both butchers have queues of customers, and they sell the whole carcass including the offal -- but only old people buy offal now.

rickyrickygrimes · 28/07/2025 20:36

I have no idea.

We have 5 grandparents in our family, all retired, all marching on into their 80s having retired at 60. At the other end we have 3 grandchildren, none of whom will have any of the economic or financial advantages that my parents and their cohort had. Replicate that across the country and the inequality and the scale of the coming crisis is clear.

Papyrophile · 28/07/2025 20:25

Farm incomes have rocketed recently? Gosh, I must tell the neighbours, but I am fairly sure that they will tell me the only reason they have managed to sell their milk for more is that they have built a self-service 24-hour kiosk so they capture every penny from every milking without selling milk to supermarkets. I buy milk from the herd I watch graze every day. I see the farmer bringing his herd in for milking at 6am and again in the evening and I have bought his branded refillable glass bottles, which I clean and sterilise. He's outsourced the hygiene to me, and I'm not unhappy with the transaction. The milk marketing board pay about 45ppl, and the end consumer (me) pays £1.30ppl. So he gets more than double what the middle man takes out.

ThatBoldBear · 28/07/2025 20:18

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 19:54

Do you mean VAT on the luxury that is private schooling?

Words matter, twisting them to state that Labour have introduced an Education Tax is surely beneath you?

Farm IHT is at such a low level it raises almost nothing at all? i'm not a fan but as farm incomes have rocketed recently, i'm sure they'll manage.

However, start a thread on either if you wish, this one is about funding the state pension, which means:

Higher taxes
More growth, which the Tories never managed in 14 years, i'll give them credit for that.....not.
Or less SP/higher retirement age... which hits the poor hardest.

Just pointing out Labour have done some things, stupid things but still.

Do you mean VAT on the luxury that is private schooling?

The ‘education and vocational training’ tax.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vat-on-education-and-vocational-training-notice-70130#:~:text=From%201%20January%202025%2C%20education,VAT%20exempt%20before%20this%20date.

Farm IHT is at such a low level it raises almost nothing at all? i'm not a fan but as farm incomes have rocketed recently, i'm sure they'll manage.
Yes that farm tax.

Higher taxes
More growth
Yes worth another go at taxing ourselves into growth. It’s worked so well every other time in every country that tries it. Let’s start with school children and farms.LOL

Education and vocational training (VAT Notice 701/30)

Find out how VAT applies to education, research, vocational training, examination services and goods and services connected with these activities.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vat-on-education-and-vocational-training-notice-70130#:~:text=From%201%20January%202025%2C%20education,VAT%20exempt%20before%20this%20date.

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 19:54

ThatBoldBear · 28/07/2025 19:45

Labour also introduced education tax and IHT on family farms, I don’t think you give them enough credit.

Edited

Do you mean VAT on the luxury that is private schooling?

Words matter, twisting them to state that Labour have introduced an Education Tax is surely beneath you?

Farm IHT is at such a low level it raises almost nothing at all? i'm not a fan but as farm incomes have rocketed recently, i'm sure they'll manage.

However, start a thread on either if you wish, this one is about funding the state pension, which means:

Higher taxes
More growth, which the Tories never managed in 14 years, i'll give them credit for that.....not.
Or less SP/higher retirement age... which hits the poor hardest.

ThatBoldBear · 28/07/2025 19:45

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 18:08

State pension can be funded by paying more NI/Tax.... i'd have thought that was obvious?
Hunts NI cuts will continue to cost the Govt around 10bn per year, without accounting for inflation.

People who want low taxes have to explain how we get to keep things like the SP.

Growing the economy seems to have escaped all parties so far, we had virtually none between 2010 and 2024, other than by increasing immigration, which drove Sunaks GDP growth, we allowed in 1m extra people, most of who were dependents.

Labour have had a year and their latest idea is to allow pubs to open up with even less restrictions on music and drinking hours, brilliant for those unfortunate enough to live near one, not too mention those who work in AE or for the wider nations health.

Labour also introduced education tax and IHT on family farms, I don’t think you give them enough credit.

Theolittle · 28/07/2025 19:23

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 18:08

State pension can be funded by paying more NI/Tax.... i'd have thought that was obvious?
Hunts NI cuts will continue to cost the Govt around 10bn per year, without accounting for inflation.

People who want low taxes have to explain how we get to keep things like the SP.

Growing the economy seems to have escaped all parties so far, we had virtually none between 2010 and 2024, other than by increasing immigration, which drove Sunaks GDP growth, we allowed in 1m extra people, most of who were dependents.

Labour have had a year and their latest idea is to allow pubs to open up with even less restrictions on music and drinking hours, brilliant for those unfortunate enough to live near one, not too mention those who work in AE or for the wider nations health.

Yes I’d be prepared to pay more tax for better public services and a nicer society to live in. And to fund state pensions.
And before everyone says anything like “you do it then” it only works if everyone does it!

Newsenmum · 28/07/2025 19:06

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 13:09

don’t you think if the pension age keeps increasing many of us won’t live to pension age at all.

Yes, that’s kind of the point unfortunately!

in time I suppose immigration policies may change

BurntBroccoli · 28/07/2025 18:59

EilonwyWithRedGoldHair · 28/07/2025 18:49

This is a looming problem though isn't it - unaffordable house prices. Which means many people will be paying rent after they retire.

Yes which is why the government need to build more social housing so they are not paying pensioners’ sky high private rents in the not too distant future.

Wareart · 28/07/2025 18:58

Yeah 20 years of even the cheapest rent - eg in an over 55s development - is going to be £££. You're going to need an annuity of £10,000 just to cover that and council tax. That's at least a £250,000 pension pot, and it's spent without you even stepping out the front door.

EilonwyWithRedGoldHair · 28/07/2025 18:49

Pyrus · 28/07/2025 11:18

Maybe I'm just more frugal than most, but you don't really need a huge pension pot as long as your mortgage is paid off at retirement.
My dc pot should be around 100k when I plan to retire at 60, that will last until I am 67, with a bit left if I keep it invested.(my dh will have his state pension before me, so that will help)
Then at 67 we can manage on our state pensions and a bit of savings.
This will pay for one car, and a few breaks away each year.

This is a looming problem though isn't it - unaffordable house prices. Which means many people will be paying rent after they retire.

EilonwyWithRedGoldHair · 28/07/2025 18:44

frozendaisy · 27/07/2025 13:22

If we didn’t have to pay for the teen’s uni, and find £1,000s for a house deposit, and put £1,000s a year into pension we could spend loads in the economy

but we do, previous generations didn’t
and future generations will have to self fund more - hence fewer and fewer babies

I don’t think they will means test pensions unless it is ridiculously high, telling the population the more tax you pay the less you are going to get on that scale would be political suicide

but removing other pension benefits - freezing pension credit as pensions rose until it disappears - reducing tripe lock to an average could mean inflation effectively reduces pensions in real cash terms

no point worrying about it - just save some so you are not entirely at the mercy of state age and pension

pensioners won’t be destitute just might have to live off the basics, if just state pension, it’s for sustenance not luxury

I do worry about it. We can't save enough in pensions, or general savings, because of the extra care our autistic DS needs.

I'll have to do at least some paid work for as long as I'm physically able and can find someone to employ me. I'm envisioning a cold and miserable old age.

FreedomandPeace · 28/07/2025 18:37

Fearfulsaints · 28/07/2025 11:38

I think a lot of us are discussing how much we might need if the state pension reduces in value or is means tested or is raised to 75 or removed entirely, rather than what we need if the state pension continues roughly in its current form.

A lot of the pension advice when I started working 30 years ago was still based on your private pension being in addition to the state pension which is why its hard to remove. People planned accordingly. There wasnt auto enrolment, lots of lower earners weren't even offered access to company schemes etc.

I guess people are thinking of saying to an 18 year old plan as if you need to fund the entire lot yourself.

Imagine your scenario without 2 state pension.

No. I was responding to someone saying you don’t need a huge pension pot
My comment, as did theirs, had nothing to do with reduced state pension

jasflowers · 28/07/2025 18:08

State pension can be funded by paying more NI/Tax.... i'd have thought that was obvious?
Hunts NI cuts will continue to cost the Govt around 10bn per year, without accounting for inflation.

People who want low taxes have to explain how we get to keep things like the SP.

Growing the economy seems to have escaped all parties so far, we had virtually none between 2010 and 2024, other than by increasing immigration, which drove Sunaks GDP growth, we allowed in 1m extra people, most of who were dependents.

Labour have had a year and their latest idea is to allow pubs to open up with even less restrictions on music and drinking hours, brilliant for those unfortunate enough to live near one, not too mention those who work in AE or for the wider nations health.

dizzydizzydizzy · 28/07/2025 17:49

BubblyBath178 · 28/07/2025 08:27

They need to tackle the unemployment issues. I’ve got absolutely no problem with people who are so disabled that they can’t work. However, most disabled people can work. Some just choose not to and take handouts. It actually makes me sick to the stomach to fund a lifestyle like that when I’m out working everyday.

What an outrageous statement.

How do you know most disabled people choose not to work and prefer handouts? Are you sure it's not the case that there is a reluctance among employers to employ disabled people? What about accessibility -are all workplaces are accessible? Last place I worked at (leisure centre) had steps outside the front door (no ramp) plus the lift in the building was usually broken . Do employers have the flexibility to make adjustments so that disabled people can attend to their health needs in a working day or go to medical appointments?

As someone who has recently become disabled and unable to work, getting these handouts (as you call them) is incredibly hard. I have had to fill out forms the length of War and Peace, gather shed loads of medical letters, plus get letters of support from family, former employers and my GP, then I had to undergo medical assessments and then wait anxiously for weeks and weeks to get refused - because the medical professional did not understand my health condition. Then I had to start the whole process again. The effort of doing all this actually gave me a relapse. (I have a fluctuating illness).

These disability benefits are incredibly hard to get so, almost without exception, anyone who gets them really deserves them .

EasternStandard · 28/07/2025 17:25

dizzydizzydizzy · 28/07/2025 16:33

Well the only answer I can think of is to have more immigrants to help address the unbalanced age profile in the population, pay our pensions and also do the jobs that British people don’t seem to want to do. Clearly the numbers coming in must be managed.

i agree that we shouldn’t build on farmland - or at least it should be largely avoided. As I said in my original post, we are
going to have to get used to living in much smaller homes. In many countries it is the norm to live in a small flat. So, I think that is what will eventually have to happen in the UK. Obviously we can’t change our housing stock overnight.

What’s your suggestion for paying pensions?

We don’t need to move into flats and keep bringing people in. They too will age, it’s unsustainable.

BurntBroccoli · 28/07/2025 16:40

ThisTicklishFatball · 28/07/2025 01:13

Too many people are unaware of this. Pensioners do pay taxes, often having to sell their assets if necessary and depend on younger generations who look down on them. Pensioners don't pay national insurance because it is covered by the younger generations for them. In turn, the younger generations will eventually become pensioners themselves, and future younger people will pay for them. Each new generation dislikes the previous ones. It's circle of life.

I saw people talking about IHT, and I honestly can't stand it. It feels so unfair—I'm already paying over half of my salary in taxes, and even after I die, there will still be more taxes to pay. Sure, I know my DC will technically be the ones paying it, but the asset is mine, it's under my name, so in a way, I'm still paying for it indirectly. It's such a cruel joke. An even worse cruel joke is that my DC will have to sell everything to pay IHT, leaving nothing for them.

Edited

IHT calculation on a million £ property:

Inheritance Tax (IHT) in the UK is charged on estates over a certain threshold, with some key allowances and exemptions. Here’s a breakdown for both a single person and a couple, based on a £1 million property being the main (or only) asset.

1. Single Person

Key Allowances:
Nil-Rate Band (NRB): £325,000 (no IHT paid up to this amount).
Residence Nil-Rate Band (RNRB): Up to £175,000, if the home is passed to direct descendants (children, grandchildren, etc.).

If both apply:
£325,000 + £175,000 = £500,000 tax-free

Taxable Amount:

£1,000,000 (property value)
Minus £500,000 allowances
= £500,000 taxable

Tax Rate:

IHT is 40% on taxable estate.

Tax Due:
40% of £500,000 = £200,000

2. Married Couple or Civil Partners

When one spouse dies, their unused allowances can transfer to the surviving partner.

Combined Allowances:

NRB: £325,000 × 2 = £650,000
RNRB: £175,000 × 2 = £350,000
Total: £1,000,000 tax-free

If the property is worth £1 million and left to children/grandchildren:

Tax Due: £0
(No inheritance tax because the total estate value equals the combined allowance.)

dizzydizzydizzy · 28/07/2025 16:33

slightlydistrac · 28/07/2025 15:08

And eat less food? Can Britain as an island grow enough food to sustain its current population without having to rely on imports? In short - no we can't.

What happens if we see a big increase in population and have to build on farmland in order to house everyone - what then? More mouths to feed and even less land to produce it. And an even bigger trade deficit.

What happens when the countries we import food from decide that they can't sell it to us any more because they need it to sustain their own growing population?

The human overpopulation issue is a global one, and is way more significant than pensions (I used to work for an IFA by the way, so I do know how pensions work).

Well the only answer I can think of is to have more immigrants to help address the unbalanced age profile in the population, pay our pensions and also do the jobs that British people don’t seem to want to do. Clearly the numbers coming in must be managed.

i agree that we shouldn’t build on farmland - or at least it should be largely avoided. As I said in my original post, we are
going to have to get used to living in much smaller homes. In many countries it is the norm to live in a small flat. So, I think that is what will eventually have to happen in the UK. Obviously we can’t change our housing stock overnight.

What’s your suggestion for paying pensions?