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Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
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ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 18:06

FreedomandPeace · 29/07/2025 18:03

?? The comment was about the Education tax being optional.

Yeah, I meant the pp looks at a tax as optional if they don’t pay it. It’s an odd way to look at it.

ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 18:05

Slackbladder22 · 29/07/2025 17:58

Think you need to read about Thomas Malthus. He made the same argument and it never came to pass. Humans are the ultimate resource. We are clever, innovative, generous, and cooperative. We are no where near peak resource. Maybe peak fossil fuel. But technology is making us more capable of feeding people.

we just need to be better at distributing our wealth

There obviously is a limit, the argument is where it lies. From a quality of life point of view, I think a lot of the U.K. has too large a population and people suffer.

FreedomandPeace · 29/07/2025 18:03

ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 17:59

@FreedomandPeace Ah, what a strange way of looking at it. I’m guessing the pp thinks income tax is optional by never earning any.

Edited

?? The comment was about the Education tax being optional.

ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 17:59

@FreedomandPeace Ah, what a strange way of looking at it. I’m guessing the pp thinks income tax is optional by never earning any.

Slackbladder22 · 29/07/2025 17:58

slightlydistrac · 27/07/2025 13:26

They have already raised the retirement age.

Incidentally, for 2023 (which I just happened to check just now out of curiosity) there were 581,363 deaths and 591,072 births, so there were 10k more births than deaths that year. That same year there were 1.2 million immigrants.

We cannot continue to increase the population of this small country ad infinitum. The human population globally is on the verge of being unable to sustain itself, and if it continues to increase like that, then there will come a time when there will be global food shortages.

Edited

Think you need to read about Thomas Malthus. He made the same argument and it never came to pass. Humans are the ultimate resource. We are clever, innovative, generous, and cooperative. We are no where near peak resource. Maybe peak fossil fuel. But technology is making us more capable of feeding people.

we just need to be better at distributing our wealth

FreedomandPeace · 29/07/2025 17:46

ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 14:24

Excellent, I didn’t know it had been changed. I did think it was a seriously f*cking stupid and embarrassing thing to do, maybe there’s hope for this government yet !!

The tax hasn’t changed the pp means it’s optional because there’s free state education

Blackcordoroys · 29/07/2025 17:38

we don’t collect the data to know this here, but this is the graph for Denmark. Only western immigrants (recruited for highly skilled jobs, basically) are net contributors. And that is legal immigrants, recruited for jobs, let alone those working illegally and not paying tax

Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?
AlertEagle · 29/07/2025 17:30

HeatonGrov · 29/07/2025 16:30

“Not all immigrants are doing low-skilled jobs. NHS hospitals are absolutely full of foreign doctors. Many tradespeople - like plumbers and electricians - are Polish”

But an awful lot of immigrants are either not working AT ALL or in minimum wage jobs like Deliveroo. They are, and always will be, a drain on the system. Once settled, they are followed by family members (parents, grandparents etc) who are also a drain on the system.

The system is like a club. We all pay in and we take out when needed. We can afford to under write some non contributors. But once the balance between those paying in and thos taking out shifts too far in favour of taking out the whole thing collapses.

Which immigrants are you referring to? The ones who have settled here with settled status or the illegal immigrants who do food delivery with someone elses license.

OP posts:
ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 16:57

HeatonGrov · 29/07/2025 16:30

“Not all immigrants are doing low-skilled jobs. NHS hospitals are absolutely full of foreign doctors. Many tradespeople - like plumbers and electricians - are Polish”

But an awful lot of immigrants are either not working AT ALL or in minimum wage jobs like Deliveroo. They are, and always will be, a drain on the system. Once settled, they are followed by family members (parents, grandparents etc) who are also a drain on the system.

The system is like a club. We all pay in and we take out when needed. We can afford to under write some non contributors. But once the balance between those paying in and thos taking out shifts too far in favour of taking out the whole thing collapses.

Well said. The mental gymnastics people go through to argue that the paying in part
is only for other people is amazing.

HeatonGrov · 29/07/2025 16:30

“Not all immigrants are doing low-skilled jobs. NHS hospitals are absolutely full of foreign doctors. Many tradespeople - like plumbers and electricians - are Polish”

But an awful lot of immigrants are either not working AT ALL or in minimum wage jobs like Deliveroo. They are, and always will be, a drain on the system. Once settled, they are followed by family members (parents, grandparents etc) who are also a drain on the system.

The system is like a club. We all pay in and we take out when needed. We can afford to under write some non contributors. But once the balance between those paying in and thos taking out shifts too far in favour of taking out the whole thing collapses.

dizzydizzydizzy · 29/07/2025 16:23

slightlydistrac · 29/07/2025 15:20

What's my suggestion for paying pensions? Well I don't really know, but who's going to pay for the immigrants' pensions when the time comes? Bearing in mind that your expectation is that they will be doing the lowest-paid jobs that British people don't want to do, their tax and NI will be low, so that their contributions will be barely funding their own housing, NHS healthcare and the education of their children on an ongoing basis, let alone contributing to anything else.

Perhaps one solution would be to increase taxes for the most well-off. But that would go down like a lead balloon, wouldn't it? They'll all be wanting to know why they should be paying more out of their incomes in order to fund the riff-raff.
Confused

Yes I agree, the main other option for paying for pensions is to increase taxes. Obviously also delaying the retirement age as many PPs have mentioned will help.

People who arrive here as adults are going to be on average net contributors to government coffers because another country will have paid for their education and healthcare as children. Once they arrive here, they are ready to work and pay taxes.

Not all immigrants are doing low-skilled jobs. NHS hospitals are absolutely full of foreign doctors. Many tradespeople - like plumbers and electricians - are Polish.

Obviously when they get old, immigrants, like anyone else, will be drawing more on the state than at other times of their lives. Same with anyone who gives birth or has school-age children.

slightlydistrac · 29/07/2025 15:20

dizzydizzydizzy · 28/07/2025 16:33

Well the only answer I can think of is to have more immigrants to help address the unbalanced age profile in the population, pay our pensions and also do the jobs that British people don’t seem to want to do. Clearly the numbers coming in must be managed.

i agree that we shouldn’t build on farmland - or at least it should be largely avoided. As I said in my original post, we are
going to have to get used to living in much smaller homes. In many countries it is the norm to live in a small flat. So, I think that is what will eventually have to happen in the UK. Obviously we can’t change our housing stock overnight.

What’s your suggestion for paying pensions?

What's my suggestion for paying pensions? Well I don't really know, but who's going to pay for the immigrants' pensions when the time comes? Bearing in mind that your expectation is that they will be doing the lowest-paid jobs that British people don't want to do, their tax and NI will be low, so that their contributions will be barely funding their own housing, NHS healthcare and the education of their children on an ongoing basis, let alone contributing to anything else.

Perhaps one solution would be to increase taxes for the most well-off. But that would go down like a lead balloon, wouldn't it? They'll all be wanting to know why they should be paying more out of their incomes in order to fund the riff-raff.
Confused

Lifestooshort71 · 29/07/2025 15:13

I worked 3 years past state pension age and would have happily continued to pay NI and would have expected my employer to pay their share as well. I'm usually shot down when I suggest this but surely it makes sense for working pensioners to carry on paying in to the pot to help pay for others?

JHound · 29/07/2025 14:52

ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 14:24

Excellent, I didn’t know it had been changed. I did think it was a seriously f*cking stupid and embarrassing thing to do, maybe there’s hope for this government yet !!

Glad to help.

ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 14:24

JHound · 29/07/2025 14:11

I mean nobody has to pay the tax. It’s completely optional.

Excellent, I didn’t know it had been changed. I did think it was a seriously f*cking stupid and embarrassing thing to do, maybe there’s hope for this government yet !!

JHound · 29/07/2025 14:11

ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 13:56

I’m not sure there's ever a good education tax to be honest, but yeah I guess this one ranks low.

I mean nobody has to pay the tax. It’s completely optional.

ThatBoldBear · 29/07/2025 13:56

JHound · 29/07/2025 12:27

A tax that 93% won’t have to pay. Sounds like a really shitty “education tax”.

I’m not sure there's ever a good education tax to be honest, but yeah I guess this one ranks low.

Theolittle · 29/07/2025 13:26

EasternStandard · 28/07/2025 21:11

Apparently.

Plus everything was ‘fully costed’ at GE and the last budget was a one off massive tax hike. Until Autumn that is.. didn’t last long.

The state pension problem isn’t one that needed to be costed for the election period. It’s a looming problem that MPs have been conscious of for years and is slowly being tackled - by moving the state pension age from 60 to 65 (for women) and then to 67/68. No government wants to inflict the pain of it but there’s no choice, it’s becoming more and more unaffordable especially with the triple lock.

WFA is a triviality compared to this!

jasflowers · 29/07/2025 12:55

EasternStandard · 28/07/2025 21:11

Apparently.

Plus everything was ‘fully costed’ at GE and the last budget was a one off massive tax hike. Until Autumn that is.. didn’t last long.

What "massive" additional taxes did you have to pay?

Remind me again, did VAT go up to 22%? perhaps fuel duty went up? or was it income tax? i'm sure that stayed exactly the same!

Council tax stayed the same as it has done for many years, a max 5% increase.

CGT still below income tax rates and paid by a tiny number of people.

So basically, you weren't affected at all were you but still persist with these scare stories.

JHound · 29/07/2025 12:28

JustPointOut · 29/07/2025 11:26

I just wanted to point out that, while it is true that much of the world currently has low birth rates (most of Asia outside of the Muslim world at least), recent immigration into the UK has been primarily from Muslim countries, and they tend to have much higher birth rates in the UK as well. This is one of the reasons behind the explosive growth of the Muslim population in Europe. Notably the Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups in the UK have very high birth rates.

  1. Birth rates have also fallen in Muslim countries. Iran for one, of many examples is not even at replacement (1.6 per woman). In fact outside of some African countries, falling birth rates is a global phenomenon.

  2. Birth rates among immigrant groups tend to align with host populations within a generation.

  3. Can you cite a source for “explosive growth in muslim communities in Europe linked to birth rates?”

JHound · 29/07/2025 12:27

ThatBoldBear · 28/07/2025 19:45

Labour also introduced education tax and IHT on family farms, I don’t think you give them enough credit.

Edited

A tax that 93% won’t have to pay. Sounds like a really shitty “education tax”.

IDontHateRainbows · 29/07/2025 12:16

BurntBroccoli · 28/07/2025 18:59

Yes which is why the government need to build more social housing so they are not paying pensioners’ sky high private rents in the not too distant future.

I foresee them building something akin to student halls of residence, to house all the pensioners who don't own their own homes and are too old/ ill/ unable to work. Grimtastic.

JustPointOut · 29/07/2025 11:26

Blackcordoroys · 27/07/2025 13:13

immigration doesn’t Actually solve this problem, as immigrants tend to adjust their birth rate to that of the host country (ie they tend to have one or two children too). Then we have 5 million more people, so we need to bring in 10 million more to pay their pensions, then … the solution, if you like immigration, is to have guest worker visas for fixed time periods but with no entitlement ever to citizenship or indefinite leave to remain. If you don’t like immigration it is to increase the pension age, increase private pension saving vs state and abandon the triple lock.

I just wanted to point out that, while it is true that much of the world currently has low birth rates (most of Asia outside of the Muslim world at least), recent immigration into the UK has been primarily from Muslim countries, and they tend to have much higher birth rates in the UK as well. This is one of the reasons behind the explosive growth of the Muslim population in Europe. Notably the Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups in the UK have very high birth rates.

Papyrophile · 28/07/2025 21:28

And, we are nearly 70, so quite old.

Papyrophile · 28/07/2025 21:22

I definitely buy offal! We're fond of liver and kidneys, properly prepared, but I can do that myself.