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Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
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7
BIossomtoes · 31/07/2025 11:04

The idea that they all go on to become net contributors is just not true.

Did anyone say that?

HeatonGrov · 31/07/2025 11:02

BIossomtoes · 31/07/2025 10:22

Why wouldn’t their children? The children of migrants do incredibly well because they place such high value on education. There are entire immigrant families of doctors, lawyers and accountants.

That is true of some groups of migrants.

It is absolutely not true of others. Children from poor, badly educated, non English speaking backgrounds, tend to perform poorly at school - especially where they are educated in areas with high social need. The idea that they all go on to become net contributors is just not true.

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 10:56

BIossomtoes · 31/07/2025 10:24

And where care is provided at home, it is provided by other adults who are not working outside the home and paying taxes, but who are claiming carer‘s allowance etc.

Thus saving the state a vast amount of money.

This doesn’t make sense. If we bring in two people from India, and one cares for the other - with attendance allowance, carers allowance, housing element, UC, etc - we are not saving money because they aren’t using a care home. They could have not been brought over in the first place, or not been given any entitlement to benefits at all, or not been eligible for permanent residency.

Viviennemary · 31/07/2025 10:24

Less folk on benefits so no need to keep raising the pension age. Benefits no more than minimum wage.

BIossomtoes · 31/07/2025 10:24

And where care is provided at home, it is provided by other adults who are not working outside the home and paying taxes, but who are claiming carer‘s allowance etc.

Thus saving the state a vast amount of money.

BIossomtoes · 31/07/2025 10:22

Jennps · 31/07/2025 10:19

These workers will never earn enough to pay for their own use pro public services. Let alone their children. As for their elderly relatives, after 5 years, they can do what they want. So there you go, it’s an absolute disaster.

Why wouldn’t their children? The children of migrants do incredibly well because they place such high value on education. There are entire immigrant families of doctors, lawyers and accountants.

Jennps · 31/07/2025 10:21

MickGeorge22 · 31/07/2025 09:35

I work in benefits advice in a city where half the population are asian and quite shocked by how many elderly are allowed to come over from India presumably because they have family here. I don't understand how they are able to claim pension credit etc . How are they getting recourse to public funds? I've come across one this week who arrived here in 2020 and is claiming pension credit, attendance allowance etc yet making regular extended trips back to india, so the benefits keep stopping then the family want help reclaiming them when she gets back !

Edited

This is the norm in low skilled immigration picture. Yet, people leading sheltered lives with no knowledge of anything outside their own bubble with refute and gaslight you telling you that it cannot be possibly true.

Jennps · 31/07/2025 10:19

Grow123 · 31/07/2025 10:16

Going rate for care worker visa is >£31k. In certain circumstances (age, in training etc) it can be >£25k.
"Care worker visa holders applying on or after March 11, 2024, are generally not allowed to bring their partners and children (dependants) to the UK"

Yeah, dependants are allowed to use public services and that obviously costs taxpayers money. Kids are likely to he net contributers and learn langauges quickly. As for emergency heath care, they pay an annual fee to be entitled to use that. But not everyone on dependent visa is not working. There isn't statistics on thia.Also according to gov there were around 280k work visas issued and 250k dependant visas in 2024 (all workers). And 430k student visas and 94k student dependant visas. Onbiosuly large numbers but not everyone brings large extended families.

Edited

These workers will never earn enough to pay for their own use pro public services. Let alone their children. As for their elderly relatives, after 5 years, they can do what they want. So there you go, it’s an absolute disaster.

HeatonGrov · 31/07/2025 10:17

Depends on the background. Children of Hong Kong Chinese and Indian immigrants tend to do well at school. Children of Pakistani heritage less so.

I come from a city with a very high immigrant population and it is absolutely not true to say their elderly do not end up in care homes. These families face the same issues that non immigrant families face: it is very difficult to provide care at home for people with advanced dementia, and other serious illnesses. And where care is provided at home, it is provided by other adults who are not working outside the home and paying taxes, but who are claiming carer‘s allowance etc.

Grow123 · 31/07/2025 10:16

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 09:37

no, but they go to school, potentially needing 1:1 support as they don’t speak English, and use emergency health care. As soon as they’ve got ILR they stay forever - a family of 6 with one low wage worker, destined to be housed and supported forever by the state. Pensions, care homes, everything. It’s not working. Someone said a health care worker on £25k can still bring dependents- that maths doesn’t work out at all.

Going rate for care worker visa is >£31k. In certain circumstances (age, in training etc) it can be >£25k.
"Care worker visa holders applying on or after March 11, 2024, are generally not allowed to bring their partners and children (dependants) to the UK"

Yeah, dependants are allowed to use public services and that obviously costs taxpayers money. Kids are likely to he net contributers and learn langauges quickly. As for emergency heath care, they pay an annual fee to be entitled to use that. But not everyone on dependent visa is not working. There isn't statistics on thia.Also according to gov there were around 280k work visas issued and 250k dependant visas in 2024 (all workers). And 430k student visas and 94k student dependant visas. Onbiosuly large numbers but not everyone brings large extended families.

suburburban · 31/07/2025 10:12

MickGeorge22 · 31/07/2025 09:35

I work in benefits advice in a city where half the population are asian and quite shocked by how many elderly are allowed to come over from India presumably because they have family here. I don't understand how they are able to claim pension credit etc . How are they getting recourse to public funds? I've come across one this week who arrived here in 2020 and is claiming pension credit, attendance allowance etc yet making regular extended trips back to india, so the benefits keep stopping then the family want help reclaiming them when she gets back !

Edited

How do you not say something

it’s quite unbelievable especially when pensioners living here are so scrutinised

suburburban · 31/07/2025 10:11

Jennps · 31/07/2025 08:17

Potentially not, once they have been in the country long enough and start claiming benefits. And even if they are not eligible for benefits, the kind of immigration was have is people bringing their larger families and then elderly relatives with them. So they are a million miles from being net contributors, even with council tax.

I’m sure you are right. The whole thing is quite depressing

no wonder councils are bankrupt

BIossomtoes · 31/07/2025 10:00

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 09:37

no, but they go to school, potentially needing 1:1 support as they don’t speak English, and use emergency health care. As soon as they’ve got ILR they stay forever - a family of 6 with one low wage worker, destined to be housed and supported forever by the state. Pensions, care homes, everything. It’s not working. Someone said a health care worker on £25k can still bring dependents- that maths doesn’t work out at all.

Or four future taxpayers and contributors to the economy. Kids learn new languages incredibly quickly when they’re immersed in them. They’re unlikely to ever use care homes; the cultures of these people mean they look after their own elders.

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 09:37

Grow123 · 31/07/2025 09:30

Care workers no longer can bring dependants. PhD students still can. But dependants can't file for any benefits.

no, but they go to school, potentially needing 1:1 support as they don’t speak English, and use emergency health care. As soon as they’ve got ILR they stay forever - a family of 6 with one low wage worker, destined to be housed and supported forever by the state. Pensions, care homes, everything. It’s not working. Someone said a health care worker on £25k can still bring dependents- that maths doesn’t work out at all.

MickGeorge22 · 31/07/2025 09:35

Jennps · 31/07/2025 08:17

Potentially not, once they have been in the country long enough and start claiming benefits. And even if they are not eligible for benefits, the kind of immigration was have is people bringing their larger families and then elderly relatives with them. So they are a million miles from being net contributors, even with council tax.

I work in benefits advice in a city where half the population are asian and quite shocked by how many elderly are allowed to come over from India presumably because they have family here. I don't understand how they are able to claim pension credit etc . How are they getting recourse to public funds? I've come across one this week who arrived here in 2020 and is claiming pension credit, attendance allowance etc yet making regular extended trips back to india, so the benefits keep stopping then the family want help reclaiming them when she gets back !

Grow123 · 31/07/2025 09:30

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 09:10

The average care worker on a visa brings 3 family members (all to be supported by one low earner). It’s not that difficult! I know a PhD student who brought 5 family members - PhD stipends are about £18k.

Care workers no longer can bring dependants. PhD students still can. But dependants can't file for any benefits.

Grow123 · 31/07/2025 09:18

Jennps · 31/07/2025 09:08

Clearly not difficult enough. Millions come in that way.

Would love to know how. Could take some pointers for myself 😉

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 09:13

Sorry, that wasn’t you. Apols

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 09:13

Didn’t you say health workers earning more than £25k still can?

Digdongdoo · 31/07/2025 09:12

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 09:10

The average care worker on a visa brings 3 family members (all to be supported by one low earner). It’s not that difficult! I know a PhD student who brought 5 family members - PhD stipends are about £18k.

Well they can't do that any more can they?

Blackcordoroys · 31/07/2025 09:10

The average care worker on a visa brings 3 family members (all to be supported by one low earner). It’s not that difficult! I know a PhD student who brought 5 family members - PhD stipends are about £18k.

Jennps · 31/07/2025 09:08

Grow123 · 31/07/2025 08:28

An UK citizen bringing their spouse to UK is already difficult. Visa holders that wouldn't be considered net contributers bringing extended family is even more difficult.

Clearly not difficult enough. Millions come in that way.

Perfectlystill · 31/07/2025 08:53

Immigration is not the answer to our low birth rate.

Grow123 · 31/07/2025 08:50

Platosrevenge · 30/07/2025 09:23

Hang on. Hasn’t immigration legislation changed recently ? You have to earn >£30k and can’t bring dependents.

~£42k or going rate. Which ever is higher. And has to be on different shortage lists. Health care and education>£25k or going rate. For young people/stem/ >£33k.

Care workers, senior care workers or medium skilled workers can't bring dependants. Students doing phD and highly skilled workers can apply to have dependants come with them. It is possible to apply for elderly parents to come if they don't have anyone else and you'll be a carer. But it really isn't easy and you can't bring a large extended family. We have been looking into a route to live with my partner in UK so I've been reading a bit about this. And it ain't easy.

Grow123 · 31/07/2025 08:28

Jennps · 31/07/2025 08:17

Potentially not, once they have been in the country long enough and start claiming benefits. And even if they are not eligible for benefits, the kind of immigration was have is people bringing their larger families and then elderly relatives with them. So they are a million miles from being net contributors, even with council tax.

An UK citizen bringing their spouse to UK is already difficult. Visa holders that wouldn't be considered net contributers bringing extended family is even more difficult.