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Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
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Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 20:38

I do think Gordon Brown knew the scale of the problems that were heading into the next government in 2010. Austerity was going to happen regardless of the party badge. The Tory Lib Dem coalition just stepped up for it. I think they did a fair job honestly. Cameron had a split party and went nuclear, to my mind, daft, but I also voted out so not excusing my share of the blame. I think it will be better to be on the fringes in the future

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 22/08/2025 20:34

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 20:15

A period of austerity was unavoidable, and Gordon Brown acknowledged it. And threw the election to avoid enforcing it.

The election was due. Labour won in 2005. So the next election if they were going to a fixed term was 2010.

So he didn’t ‘throw’ an election.

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 20:26

Go and read the Michaela/KBalsinbargh thread in education today to understand the issues. Until schools actually enforce discipline and uniforms and compliance, there's only mayhem. I taught, quite briefly, as a career change and decided to fuck off out, although I loved the class room.

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 20:16

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 20:15

A period of austerity was unavoidable, and Gordon Brown acknowledged it. And threw the election to avoid enforcing it.

That’s an interesting interpretation.

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 20:15

A period of austerity was unavoidable, and Gordon Brown acknowledged it. And threw the election to avoid enforcing it.

TaupeLemur · 22/08/2025 19:31

GasPanic · 22/08/2025 16:26

How about having more people born here by lowering house prices and encouraging people to have families rather than just importing a solution that makes life more difficult for everyone ?

Encouraging them how exactly? Free or affordable childcare? Cheaper food to feed kids? Good schools so we know they’ll get decent education with more £££ needed?
And what are we doing to lower the house prices? thatcher sold off social housing - the affordable, rental housing? Are you telling me people are going to be happy to have their homes devalued? So the house you paid £400k for last year with drop to £250k in a few years, leaving people with negative equity???

VaseofViolets · 22/08/2025 18:17

This reply has been deleted

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bombastix · 22/08/2025 18:09

Really? You save for a private pension like everyone else. If you are half right then the state pension is toast. Even if it wasn’t, it’s a ticket to poverty in old age. So do something about it while you are earning.

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 18:06

VaseofViolets · 22/08/2025 18:03

The volume of people dependent upon it, and longer life expectancy.

Life expectancy is decreasing. Try again.

VaseofViolets · 22/08/2025 18:03

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 16:19

We had high levels of low skilled workers and a welfare state in the past. In fact the welfare state was founded in an era of low pay. What’s so special about the 21st century?

The volume of people dependent upon it, and longer life expectancy.

suburburban · 22/08/2025 16:55

GasPanic · 22/08/2025 16:26

How about having more people born here by lowering house prices and encouraging people to have families rather than just importing a solution that makes life more difficult for everyone ?

Yes if only

jasflowers · 22/08/2025 16:26

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 16:19

We had high levels of low skilled workers and a welfare state in the past. In fact the welfare state was founded in an era of low pay. What’s so special about the 21st century?

Yes its about political choices and leadership, nhs and welfare state opposed tooth and nail by the Cons and if they could they'd get rid of both now.

GasPanic · 22/08/2025 16:26

How about having more people born here by lowering house prices and encouraging people to have families rather than just importing a solution that makes life more difficult for everyone ?

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 16:19

VaseofViolets · 21/08/2025 22:48

The pension system as we know it now won’t exist. You can have high levels of low-skilled immigration or a welfare state. Not both. Seems obvious which one we’ve chosen.

We had high levels of low skilled workers and a welfare state in the past. In fact the welfare state was founded in an era of low pay. What’s so special about the 21st century?

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 22/08/2025 16:00

BlueyNeedsToFuckOff · 27/07/2025 15:33

But most people could afford to save something. Anyone who has any level of discretionary spending i.e. buying anything beyond the bare essentials needed to live (and I fully appreciate that not everyone does) COULD save into a pension - they just may not prioritise that over stuff they want now.

But most people have
Childcare
Saving for expensive house deposit.
paying uni costs for dc
shopping bills through roof
Energy bills through the roof
Transport anywhere is expensive

How do people have any spare money to save anything?

jasflowers · 22/08/2025 15:41

Wages didn't stagnate until Austerity, public sector pay levels gave business what they wanted - low prices rises/higher profits.

Proof? now public sector rises are higher, so are private sector ones, each has to compete.

11000 claims? yes 37% of which are people who came in on visa's and who let in over 2m on such visas?

imho the country was a lot nicer place in 2010, i had an nhs dentist, an ambulance didn't take 12 hours to arrive, AE didn't take 24hrs & certainly didn't have to worry about smashing up my car on a pot hole on A or B roads.

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 13:39

Between Blair and Brown, who held office for 13 years, and the Tories' 14 years there's only one year in it. Arguably, both parties had courses of action forced upon them by events (2008 GFC, 2020 Covid, 2022 Ukraine) and both made unforced errors. Blair could have imposed restrictions on the influx of the 2004 accession countries' migration, but didn't, and this undoubtedly suppressed wages, which affected the referendum result.

Honours approximately even, but the current Government are not covering themselves in glory yet; 110,000 new asylum claims in their first 13 months as I read this morning.

jasflowers · 22/08/2025 08:42

Jennps · 31/07/2025 08:27

Unfortunately they are not.

And austerity did not hold down wages. Where did you hear that. Thats not how wages and fiscal conditions work. The wages are held down by poor productivity in the economy. And that started when Bliar and nu Labour opened up the borders to unlimited immigration in the late 90s while also creating a nation of welfare dependent handout takers who would do anything but work.

When you give people free money to sit at home and import low skilled, low wage migrants to do the work that locals should be doing or businesses should be investing in automation for machines to do, then wage suppressions happens.

And that disastrous immigration policy continues to this day. We have almost 10million people of working age on benefits in this country. That’s right, almost 10 million.

Benefits are not a symptom of low wages. They are a cause. Wages are suppressed because benefits can subsidise wages so employers don’t need to pay market rates or invest in automation. As well as benefits dependent local population, employers can also access unlimited low skilled immigrant labour who will work for lower wages and within a few years of being in the country are also claiming benefits themselves. So the cycles continues, suppressing wages more and more and more.

Of course Austerity collapsed wages, public sector pay rises were 0 or 1% private sector followed suit.

Blair had productivity levels & GDP growth that were excellent.... they dropped like a stone post GFC & Austerity, only now v slowly coming back up.

You keep harking back to Labour but the Tories were in for 14 years... longer than Blair, 10 of which they had no global issues to deal with - they allowed in three times as many migrants than Blair did, exc Ukrainians.

One reason Europe has higher levels of unemployment than UK is they did invest in automation.

Business will use any excuse to hold down wages.

VaseofViolets · 21/08/2025 22:48

The pension system as we know it now won’t exist. You can have high levels of low-skilled immigration or a welfare state. Not both. Seems obvious which one we’ve chosen.

naomisno1fan · 21/08/2025 22:40

There will be no pensions. People too old/ill to work will have to sell their homes and move to small flats to have money to live on or start multi generational living.

Theolittle · 21/08/2025 21:29

Southern25 · 21/08/2025 20:22

The government is well aware of this problem but they won’t personally be responsible for it so will just ignore the problem and kick the can down the road.

Pensioners today won’t give a toss because they are already pensioners.

And most working age people aren’t thinking that far ahead as they are just trying to live day by day.

Buy yes I worry about it !

Governments know this needs tackling which is what we keep having pensions reviews. No one votes for the extra tax that is needed so politicians have to lie and do tax by stealth. And the worst blame asylum seekers as if solving that would solve the problem.

we need to pay more tax if we don’t want to retire at 75. Most people can afford it but argue they can’t cos they want more “stuff”

Southern25 · 21/08/2025 20:22

The government is well aware of this problem but they won’t personally be responsible for it so will just ignore the problem and kick the can down the road.

Pensioners today won’t give a toss because they are already pensioners.

And most working age people aren’t thinking that far ahead as they are just trying to live day by day.

Buy yes I worry about it !

Southern25 · 21/08/2025 20:22

The government is well aware of this problem but they won’t personally be responsible for it so will just ignore the problem and kick the can down the road.

Pensioners today won’t give a toss because they are already pensioners.

And most working age people aren’t thinking that far ahead as they are just trying to live day by day.

Buy yes I worry about it !

BIossomtoes · 31/07/2025 11:23

“All” wasn’t implied and net contributors definitely wasn’t. It’s an erroneous concept anyway because the level of contribution versus the amount of receipts varies according to life stage and circumstances. People without school age children will be net contributors at a lower income level than those with. Some people will be net contributors their entire working life and then this changes when they start claiming their pension. There are so many variables it’s meaningless.

HeatonGrov · 31/07/2025 11:15

BIossomtoes · 31/07/2025 11:04

The idea that they all go on to become net contributors is just not true.

Did anyone say that?

I think it was definitely implied in your statement that “the children of migrants do incredibly well because they place such a high value on education…..doctors, lawyers, accountants”