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Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
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duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 15:16

It’s already incentivised through tax relief - still doesn’t seem to make much of a difference

The majority don't have enough spare to stuff loads into their pension.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 15:14

People are also living longer and are more "fit" later into life because of health care

healthy life expectancy hasn't changed

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 15:13

The issue with further penalising the young simply because they are young is that they they ones with means will just go to other countries. Much of the west will want to attract talented young people.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 15:12

Raise pension age •

it's already 68 despite no increase in healthy life expectancy

DrCoconut · 27/07/2025 15:11

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 13:09

don’t you think if the pension age keeps increasing many of us won’t live to pension age at all.

I think that's the idea. Not great for a manifesto though so none of them will admit it. If state pensions are actually stopped or means tested there are a lot of people going to protest, the waspi women will look like a teddy bear's picnic in comparison. If the understood agreement is that you pay for current pensioners during your working life and then qualify for a pension yourself when you are older, people who paid into the system but get no pension at the end will not be happy. Politicians are hoping our apathy as a nation will triumph.

millymollymoomoo · 27/07/2025 15:10

And I know loads of people moving jobs in their 50s

millymollymoomoo · 27/07/2025 15:10

Save for your own and stop useless governments taxing it

and most people are not anti immigration/ they are anti mass uncontrolled immigration , and illegal
immigratuon from cultures not compatible with ours. Most sane people acknowledge reasonable, measured immigration at sensible levels ( not hundreds of thousands a years )

N0sferatu · 27/07/2025 15:07

Plus, it's nigh on impossible to get a decent job once you're over the age of 50.

I'm not sure this is true. It might be difficult for some but probably depends on which sector you work in. I've changed jobs twice in my 50s, both times for a better salary etc. I know others in their 50s that have changed jobs as well. I specifically chose my current job because the pension is good. So I dont think it's nigh on impossible to get a decent job in your 50s.

frozendaisy · 27/07/2025 15:06

JHound · 27/07/2025 15:05

We may need to adopt the Australian model where paying into a private pension becomes mandatory.

And fewer babies
lower house prices because mortgages will take into account these payments

JHound · 27/07/2025 15:05

We may need to adopt the Australian model where paying into a private pension becomes mandatory.

frozendaisy · 27/07/2025 15:04

Older people suggesting younger people have more babies is just rude

if you want a longer wealthy retirement pay for it
cheaper than a child

if you want a child you have to pay for them

older people who haven’t saved for themselves expecting younger people to fund babies so they can retire earlier is so very selfish

Anotherparkingthread · 27/07/2025 15:03

MondayYogurt · 27/07/2025 13:29

Oh no! My pyramid scheme! Who will keep it going?

Yeah, I agree with this. I think the only thing to do will be as a society rework the entire structure. I'm not suggesting I have the answers, it just literally won't be able to continue in the way it has. Anything that works only on exponential growth is destined to collapse eventually because it's simply not sustainable.

I think one of the greater problems we are going to face is pensions that can't support the retiree's. As another poster mentioned, with so many unable to afford to buy houses, the elderly will be competing with young people for rentals which are already in short supply. And possibly be unable to fund it on pension alone, it simply won't be enough. We can't turn even more housing into over 55s etc because there's already a massive shortage for young people and families, if younge people can't find stable accomodation even those that might want or consider having children are going to find it much more difficult. Further exacerbating the issue.

JHound · 27/07/2025 15:01

Blackcordoroys · 27/07/2025 13:13

immigration doesn’t Actually solve this problem, as immigrants tend to adjust their birth rate to that of the host country (ie they tend to have one or two children too). Then we have 5 million more people, so we need to bring in 10 million more to pay their pensions, then … the solution, if you like immigration, is to have guest worker visas for fixed time periods but with no entitlement ever to citizenship or indefinite leave to remain. If you don’t like immigration it is to increase the pension age, increase private pension saving vs state and abandon the triple lock.

Agreed and it becomes a ponzi scheme - we need more and more and more people. We need to complete reinvent out relationships to and expectations from the state.

frozendaisy · 27/07/2025 15:01

FloraBotticelli · 27/07/2025 14:46

It’ll be up to individuals to save up their own pension, and for the pension sector to publicise the impending disaster coming with the state pension and advertise their products. No one else has any skin in the game to sort it out.

Once enough people wake up to not relying on the state, there will be pressure for the government to scrap the state pension. No one wants to be paying NI for a benefit they’re never going to get.

Harder to do when younger if you want them to have kids and fund that as well and keep house prices high for the current owners, and pay increasing tax because there is other things to pay for as well as pensions

hence lower birth rat people just can’t afford it during their younger fertile years - it’s the one expense you can control - to have a dependant or not

JHound · 27/07/2025 14:57

Whyx · 27/07/2025 13:02

#childfreegeneration

Saw this hashtag on a tiktok and just laughed. How dumb and short sighted. Of course no one should feel bad about not having kids and no one should feel that they have to have kids but we do have to acknowledge as you say that a steady population level is needed now for the benefit of future generations.

But if people do not want / are not able to have kids they should not have them. Individuals
should not put themselves at physical,
emotional, mental, financial disadvantage by having children they do not want.

JHound · 27/07/2025 14:55

Private pensions.

I cannot believe people are still
relying on a state pension.

frozendaisy · 27/07/2025 14:54

girljulian · 27/07/2025 14:50

Forgive me if I’m misunderstanding, but is it not the case that at the moment, we’re struggling so much because the pension claimants are baby boomers and that’s an enormous generation? Whereas Gen X is small, so as the boomers die out, it will be Millennials (another big generation) who are funding the smaller generation above them? And therefore it will be manageable?

Still partly depends on how long a person lives.

If you have a lot of people icing to 95, and pension is 67, there is 30 years person with more pensioners being added yearly.

frozendaisy · 27/07/2025 14:51

CoastalCalm · 27/07/2025 14:46

Childcare cost needs addressed or it will continue to be those less economically active that have large families who do not fund the country at all , more children isn’t the answer its children who will gain employment and pay tax

And how do you propose the country manages that?

By saying only the “right” people can have children?
And how do you then define right?

girljulian · 27/07/2025 14:50

Forgive me if I’m misunderstanding, but is it not the case that at the moment, we’re struggling so much because the pension claimants are baby boomers and that’s an enormous generation? Whereas Gen X is small, so as the boomers die out, it will be Millennials (another big generation) who are funding the smaller generation above them? And therefore it will be manageable?

CoastalCalm · 27/07/2025 14:46

Childcare cost needs addressed or it will continue to be those less economically active that have large families who do not fund the country at all , more children isn’t the answer its children who will gain employment and pay tax

FloraBotticelli · 27/07/2025 14:46

It’ll be up to individuals to save up their own pension, and for the pension sector to publicise the impending disaster coming with the state pension and advertise their products. No one else has any skin in the game to sort it out.

Once enough people wake up to not relying on the state, there will be pressure for the government to scrap the state pension. No one wants to be paying NI for a benefit they’re never going to get.

needtostopnamechanging · 27/07/2025 14:44

Life expectancy isn’t increasing anymore though is it? Although be interesting to see if the weight loss drugs make a dent in the decline

I wish they would undo some of the crap financial choices ( such as leaving the EU) rather than trying to put the burden on individuals

but the extreme right wing position is everyone for themselves and no state anything so it’s creeping in

most people are worse off under such a system

DdraigGoch · 27/07/2025 14:42

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 13:09

don’t you think if the pension age keeps increasing many of us won’t live to pension age at all.

Lots of people didn't in the past. It used to be 70 and that was back when life expectancy was lower.

TankFlyBossW4lk · 27/07/2025 14:41

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 13:09

don’t you think if the pension age keeps increasing many of us won’t live to pension age at all.

Where's the evidence for this?

Turmerictolly · 27/07/2025 14:37

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 13:09

don’t you think if the pension age keeps increasing many of us won’t live to pension age at all.

That’s what the eventual aim is.