Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
jeffgoldblum · 23/08/2025 17:46

Whatatimeto · 23/08/2025 16:49

No one official told you that though. As it stands the official line is that there will be one. People can assume/believe there won’t be. And I agree that sensible older people will advise younger people not to rely on it and to start their own.

The problem with saying there definitely won’t be one for ANYONE in 30 years is the same as telling people there won’t be one for you personally unless you keep up your NI contributions. There will be a “pension” (call it whatever if you want) for those that do not have a private pension. The same way there is pension credits now for those that have never paid in. It may not be officially called state pension, but there will money paid to people of pension age the same way there is now.

I’m sorry to disagree but I was 20 and a specialist in pensions visited and briefed everyone at my work . I thought everyone knew this ?
im only 50 now but by the time I retire any state funded pension will be so tiny that it would be impossible for anyone to live on it , to the point it may as well not exist.
i imagine those who are eligible for benefits may receive more but the rest of us? No .
this problem predates immigration, there is simply not enough money.

2sidesofcoins · 23/08/2025 16:58

I don't think this will be a problem as life expectancy reduces due to enviromental toxins and lifestyle factors. I think we will all die a few years off 70.

Whatatimeto · 23/08/2025 16:49

jeffgoldblum · 23/08/2025 16:34

I was told 30 years ago that there would be no government pension for me and that I should join the work one or start my own, so I would be very surprised if anyone got a pension in 20 to 30 years time that they haven’t funded themselves.

No one official told you that though. As it stands the official line is that there will be one. People can assume/believe there won’t be. And I agree that sensible older people will advise younger people not to rely on it and to start their own.

The problem with saying there definitely won’t be one for ANYONE in 30 years is the same as telling people there won’t be one for you personally unless you keep up your NI contributions. There will be a “pension” (call it whatever if you want) for those that do not have a private pension. The same way there is pension credits now for those that have never paid in. It may not be officially called state pension, but there will money paid to people of pension age the same way there is now.

jeffgoldblum · 23/08/2025 16:34

I was told 30 years ago that there would be no government pension for me and that I should join the work one or start my own, so I would be very surprised if anyone got a pension in 20 to 30 years time that they haven’t funded themselves.

jasflowers · 23/08/2025 16:26

Southern25 · 23/08/2025 06:58

What’s unfair in my opinion though is the people who never work and never will do and aren’t affected by this.
Where as people who work all their lives have to work longer with no prospect of having a retirement.

oh don't worry about that, long term unemployment reduces life span by around 10 years, so will only be claiming pension for 3 years, if that.

Feel happier now?

suburburban · 23/08/2025 07:23

Southern25 · 23/08/2025 06:58

What’s unfair in my opinion though is the people who never work and never will do and aren’t affected by this.
Where as people who work all their lives have to work longer with no prospect of having a retirement.

Yes

babyproblems · 23/08/2025 07:12

I don’t think immigration is as linked to this as you are thinking. Sounds like a good argument but it’s not a solution to such a huge huge problem..

jasflowers · 23/08/2025 07:06

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 21:04

All the clever intelligent commenters have arrived en masse. so I am a bit flattered by the attention! It is the big issue we all need to think about, and resolve, and we (all of us) need to row together to force a fair solution. Not a strip the rich nor a shame the getting by.

Don't be!

One of the reasons we are in such a mess is because the country has been run down.
So not only do we have issues funding state pensions but we haven't the money to fix the infrastructure and the under staffing in public services - 3 years to hear a court case?
Stroke patients put in corridors?

We failed to keep up with mtce, charged health degree students - now we have to replace and rebuild, costing far more and import nurses etc.

"All row together?" the rich say they'll leave the uk if taxes go up, the m/c's say they have no more money and poor, well, they are poor!

Growth escaped the Tories for 14 years but the moment a Govt comes in that increases taxes in an attempt to fix some of the issues, its all disaster and mayhem - without any alternative.

TheaBrandt1 · 23/08/2025 07:03

On the other hand we are told AI will take all our children’s jobs so what work will there be for them to pay their taxes from?! What’s the point of having all these children if there is no work for them?

Robots can do the old age care.

Southern25 · 23/08/2025 07:02

Appleandoranges · 22/08/2025 21:34

Despite the rhetoric, I don't think immigration will get any lower. Reality is with so many elderly, there is an even greater need for migrants who do care work. Reality is Brexit meant an increase in immigration from areas such as Asia as doctors/careworkers and nurses were needed. Also agriculture and hospitality is largely dependent on migrant labour too. Also a significant proportion of births (20 per cent I think) have mothers who are foreign born. So if not for immigrants, birth rate would be even lower.

A little off topic , but how are people from abroad who work in care for example, background checked ? Do they get a DBS check ? How do they check people from Asia for example?

My job requires security clearance, it’s quite in depth. But I’ve often wondered how they check people who come from abroad , including my job.

Southern25 · 23/08/2025 06:58

What’s unfair in my opinion though is the people who never work and never will do and aren’t affected by this.
Where as people who work all their lives have to work longer with no prospect of having a retirement.

MuddlingMackem · 22/08/2025 22:11

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:25

@ThatBoldBear finances definitely impact whether people have dc or not but I believe the thinking is once society gets to a certain point any attempts to incentivise more dc & increase birth rates have not had any real impact.

It might not have a huge impact, but I've certainly read posts online from women who've had only 1 child due to not being able to fund childcare and / or university for a second, so it could have some impact. And these are the people we want to be having children as their children are more likely to than some others to become tax payers.

Appleandoranges · 22/08/2025 21:34

Despite the rhetoric, I don't think immigration will get any lower. Reality is with so many elderly, there is an even greater need for migrants who do care work. Reality is Brexit meant an increase in immigration from areas such as Asia as doctors/careworkers and nurses were needed. Also agriculture and hospitality is largely dependent on migrant labour too. Also a significant proportion of births (20 per cent I think) have mothers who are foreign born. So if not for immigrants, birth rate would be even lower.

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 21:30

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 21:27

You have most definitely been part of the story @BIossomtoes .. Actually you nearly qualify as one of my closest friends!

Oh that’s lovely. Thank you.

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 21:27

You have most definitely been part of the story @BIossomtoes .. Actually you nearly qualify as one of my closest friends!

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 21:23

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 21:19

The last few posters have included some of the posters whose opinions I have most respected here, many over several years, even when we haven't agreed. We may not always agree on the detail, but I would like to say that I always read anything you post carefully.

Thank you (assuming you were including me!). It’s a two way street, I’ve learnt too.

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 21:19

The last few posters have included some of the posters whose opinions I have most respected here, many over several years, even when we haven't agreed. We may not always agree on the detail, but I would like to say that I always read anything you post carefully.

Figmentofmyimagination · 22/08/2025 21:17

Sorry - posted twice - on a train with dodgy signal!

Figmentofmyimagination · 22/08/2025 21:17

Sorry - posted twice - on a train with dodgy signal!

Figmentofmyimagination · 22/08/2025 21:15

To get the equivalent of the state pension by saving into a private pension, you need to have built up a fund of around £135,000. With pensions auto-enrolment, most private and voluntary sector employers, especially in lower paid roles, (say, below £30,000 pa) are contributing only the minimum 3% of salary. You are likely also only putting in the minimum, 5%. How are you ever going to reach £135,000? This is the reality of means testing.

There are also very many people in all kinds of sectors who nowadays are forced to work under arrangements of bogus self employment where they are described as ‘freelance contractors’ etc and paid their hourly ‘wage’ (although you mustn’t call it that …) without deductions. These arrangements have always been around, but they were turbo charged by the introduction of pension auto enrolment and are accelerating with the changes to employer NI, promises of ‘guaranteed hours’ etc etc in the employment rights bill, and so on.

These people are not just not saving into a private pension. They are not even contributing to a state pension because the employer is avoiding employer national insurance contributions. What a mess.

Figmentofmyimagination · 22/08/2025 21:14

To get the equivalent of the state pension by saving into a private pension, you need to have built up a fund of around £135,000. With pensions auto-enrolment, most private and voluntary sector employers, especially in lower paid roles, (say, below £30,000 pa) are contributing only the minimum 3% of salary. You are likely also only putting in the minimum, 5%. How are you ever going to reach £135,000? This is the reality of means testing.

There are also very many people in all kinds of sectors who nowadays are forced to work under arrangements of bogus self employment where they are described as ‘freelance contractors’ etc and paid their hourly ‘wage’ (although you mustn’t call it that …) without deductions. These arrangements have always been around, but they were turbo charged by the introduction of pension auto enrolment and are accelerating with the changes to employer NI, promises of ‘guaranteed hours’ etc etc in the employment rights bill, and so on.

These people are not just not saving into a private pension. They are not even contributing to a state pension because the employer is avoiding employer national insurance contributions. What a mess.

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 21:04

All the clever intelligent commenters have arrived en masse. so I am a bit flattered by the attention! It is the big issue we all need to think about, and resolve, and we (all of us) need to row together to force a fair solution. Not a strip the rich nor a shame the getting by.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 22/08/2025 20:57

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 20:50

Austerity was ideological and has been soundly debunked by virtually every reputable economist. Every economy was affected by the global crash and those that recovered fastest didn’t slash and burn all their public services. Even if the 2010 government had been a Labour/Libdem coalition that made cuts, it certainly wouldn’t have decimated the country’s public service infrastructure like Osborne did.

Exactly.

It was the coalition government that caused all the problems with their drive for austerity. When it wasn’t needed, AND when Europe was heavily investing in their infrastructure and services.

Austerity was a choice not a necessity.

BIossomtoes · 22/08/2025 20:50

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 20:38

I do think Gordon Brown knew the scale of the problems that were heading into the next government in 2010. Austerity was going to happen regardless of the party badge. The Tory Lib Dem coalition just stepped up for it. I think they did a fair job honestly. Cameron had a split party and went nuclear, to my mind, daft, but I also voted out so not excusing my share of the blame. I think it will be better to be on the fringes in the future

Austerity was ideological and has been soundly debunked by virtually every reputable economist. Every economy was affected by the global crash and those that recovered fastest didn’t slash and burn all their public services. Even if the 2010 government had been a Labour/Libdem coalition that made cuts, it certainly wouldn’t have decimated the country’s public service infrastructure like Osborne did.

jasflowers · 22/08/2025 20:49

Papyrophile · 22/08/2025 20:38

I do think Gordon Brown knew the scale of the problems that were heading into the next government in 2010. Austerity was going to happen regardless of the party badge. The Tory Lib Dem coalition just stepped up for it. I think they did a fair job honestly. Cameron had a split party and went nuclear, to my mind, daft, but I also voted out so not excusing my share of the blame. I think it will be better to be on the fringes in the future

No one throws an election, Labour had had their time.

Austerity for 3 or 4 years, yes but we ve still got it 15 years later.

With an aggressive Russia, a crazy USA, a strong EU with UK at the centre is essential, why else was Putin in favour of Brexit?