Page 17 | Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

AlertEagle · 2025-07-27T11:59:58+00:00

*posted from another forum* Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable. State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them? Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up? Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this? Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

Bowlandbillow · 27/07/2025 19:11

There are a growing number of young people who don't think a pension is necessary so they don't pay into one.
People from Pakistan and Bangladesh backgrounds are not paying into pensions. Only one in four from Muslim backgrounds in the UK is contributing to a pension.
I think they are relying on the state providing top ups via pension credits so there is no need for them to invest in a pension.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05631v11ndo

Mohaimen with a big smile looking at the camera, wearing a cotton printed shirt which is both striped and has flower images on it.

Pensions: 'Why I'm one of millions of UK adults not paying in'

Almost half of UK adults do not pay into a private or workplace pension - some of them tell us why.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05631v11ndo

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:04

We have one if the lowest state pensions in Europe. We are one of the richest countries in the world.

Our state pension is low but when you add in private pensions pensioners are in line with Europe. We have low gdp per capita due to inequality.

FreedomandPeace · 27/07/2025 19:04

HarryVanderspeigle · 27/07/2025 19:00

Auto opt in for pensions was a good start, but we need to make it compulsory. No one should be able to opt out. People simply can't expect to pay nothing outside of taxation and be retired for 20+ years.

Including the self employed although how that can be forced I have no idea

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:03

People simply can't expect to pay nothing outside of taxation and be retired for 20+ years.

And yet this is the current system

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:02

No one should be able to opt out.

I see young teachers opting out of the amazing TPS because after rent/saving for a house deposit they don't have enough left. We need to address housing costs.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:01

@HoskinsChoice healthy life expectancy matters!!!

HarryVanderspeigle · 27/07/2025 19:00

Auto opt in for pensions was a good start, but we need to make it compulsory. No one should be able to opt out. People simply can't expect to pay nothing outside of taxation and be retired for 20+ years.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:00

Raising the state pension age to an unreasonable age will make no difference to people’s age related illnesses. There will simply be more people on other welfare benefits.

Exactly!

NeedAnyHelpWithThatPaperBag · 27/07/2025 18:55

It's a conundrum, as a consumer economy will eventually collapse if dwindling numbers have any spare money. A Universal basic income on a country by country basis according to the cost of living essentials created as a form of "Monopoly Money" that would operate alongside the "real" economy?

ElizaMulvil · 27/07/2025 18:54

We have one if the lowest state pensions in Europe. We are one of the richest countries in the world. The problem is lack of political will. The richest 50 billionaire families in this country have the same wealth approximately as all the poorest 50%. If we taxed the richest e.g. 2% of their wealth they wouldn't even notice. Nor would they immediately leave. They like their lifestyle here. Compare China where e.g. despite having a much lower per capita income most women retire at 55. Only managers retire at 60.

HoskinsChoice · 27/07/2025 18:50

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 15:12

Raise pension age •

it's already 68 despite no increase in healthy life expectancy

The 65 pension age for men was set in the 1940's and has only recently started to creep up to 68 in the last few years. Life expectancy has increased by considerably more than 3 years since the 1940's. If we are being realistic, the pension age should have gone up a long time ago and, if we're being really fair, the pension age for women should be slightly higher than for men as we can expect to live 3 or 4 years longer.

Ginghamsheep · 27/07/2025 18:49

The future does look pretty bleak. Sometimes when I am out and about, I see little children playing so freely and happily and I just think to myself, you have no idea of the difficulties and burdens which lie ahead for you. 😔

AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii · 27/07/2025 18:46

I’m making sure to pay as much as I can in to my NHS pension

MickGeorge22 · 27/07/2025 18:40

CurlyhairedAssassin · 27/07/2025 18:18

I think current home owning mortgage-free wealthy 75-85 year olds should be thinking of skipping a generation when it comes to writing their will. Most of their adult children will already have housing sorted, even if they are still working and paying off their mortgage. It makes no sense to me to give their adult children all their estate, leaving them possibly with excess after paying off their mortgage, while their grandchildren are still having problems trying to find even basic housing that's affordable, and may even still be in the family home.

Yes, the parents can just give them a deposit out of any inheritance they are left but there are tax implications of that if they were then to die themselves.

So basically rather than inheritance going down just one generation perhaps it needs to be going down two.

If I receive any inheritance from my dad it will be going straight to my kids. We ( dh and I ) don't need it.

HeatonGrov · 27/07/2025 18:36

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-in-the-uk/

There is a big difference between high and medium waged migrants and low/no waged migrants.

Obviously it makes sense to keep the former two and limit the numbers in the bottom category. Criminality is also much higher among low/no waged migrants.

Why do some commentators insist on conflating the different groups?

The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the UK - Migration Observatory

This briefing gives an overview of research on the impact of immigration on government finances in the UK and explains the main issues related to estimating the fiscal impact of immigration in the UK.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-in-the-uk/

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 18:34

There's a difference between immigrants & illegal immigrants....

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 18:31

Well I clearly think so from what I've read online. You're welcome to Google yourself to inform your own view. I wouldn't want to bias you (and honestly, I don't want to spend my Sunday citing sources, im not at uni now!)

No one saw that coming! 😆

If you had gone to uni you would know you shouldn't just make things up....

Nevertrustacop · 27/07/2025 18:27

CurlyhairedAssassin · 27/07/2025 18:18

I think current home owning mortgage-free wealthy 75-85 year olds should be thinking of skipping a generation when it comes to writing their will. Most of their adult children will already have housing sorted, even if they are still working and paying off their mortgage. It makes no sense to me to give their adult children all their estate, leaving them possibly with excess after paying off their mortgage, while their grandchildren are still having problems trying to find even basic housing that's affordable, and may even still be in the family home.

Yes, the parents can just give them a deposit out of any inheritance they are left but there are tax implications of that if they were then to die themselves.

So basically rather than inheritance going down just one generation perhaps it needs to be going down two.

Deed of variation. No tax implications then. It's entirely possible to give away an inheritance.

EggnogNoggin · 27/07/2025 18:26

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 18:23

@EggnogNoggin are they?

Well I clearly think so from what I've read online. You're welcome to Google yourself to inform your own view. I wouldn't want to bias you (and honestly, I don't want to spend my Sunday citing sources, im not at uni now!)

FreedomandPeace · 27/07/2025 18:26

Lioncub2020 · 27/07/2025 17:44

Of course healthy life expectancy has increased considerably. Previously people died now they don't - so they must be healthier, unless you're going to argue that dead is healthier than alive. People in the forties didn't all just drop dead at 65 they would have been ill in the run up. People have got used to the idea they should have decades of retirement, if you want that you need to contribute more to a private provision.

Show quote history

People can live a long time and still be unhealthy.
illnesses impact a persons ability to work. Raising the state pension age to an unreasonable age will make no difference to people’s age related illnesses. There will simply be more people on other welfare benefits.
In the long run and given current policy that means more people once they retire will have the additional benefit of disability allowances. Something that one can only apply for before state pension age

Its all about balancing the cost out

GulliaumeDuc · 27/07/2025 18:26

No-one, because when it’s politically expedient, the state pension will be abolished or restricted to the oldest pensioners.

The old age pension age was originally 70, at a time when the life expectancy for most people was lower than that. It’s not really sustainable long term.

WaryCrow · 27/07/2025 18:25

Are you expecting a pension in 20-30 years time op? Lucky you.

By that time the baby boomers will have died off, my gen x’ers will no doubt die a lot earlier thanks to having had harder lives. Meanwhile all these millions - millions, op - of young immigrants we have already taken in will be gratefully paying for us out of their productive lives, in thanks for us taking them in from their terrible homelands, and their many many children will also be high skilled individuals.

EggnogNoggin · 27/07/2025 18:25

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 18:16

The only real answer is to plan a retirement where you aren't reliant on the state.

whilst paying for all those who are reliant on the state, bit of a hard sell! 😆

Exactly. If I don't get my state pension then I won't be loving and spending in Britain, I'll look to mostly live abroad and the welfare state can support itself.

I'm not rich but I am fed up. The way its going it will be better value to sell or rent the family home and use the money to travel with a decent worldwide tourist health insurance package.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 18:23

@EggnogNoggin are they?

EggnogNoggin · 27/07/2025 18:21

Why are you assuming immigrants are contributing to pensions when the vast majority are a net drain on the public purse?