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Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
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ThatBoldBear · 27/07/2025 20:06

suburburban · 27/07/2025 20:03

Endless immigration especially unskilled or when they may need social housing and top up benefits

I agree. How much does an endless supply of deliveroo drivers actually add to the economy? I would have thought the state massively subsidises a lot of these people.

Papyrophile · 27/07/2025 20:05

l built my pension fund singlehanded. As a freelance writer, a successful one on financial parameters (I earned £50K in 1999 for eight months work). My earnings dipped a lot (fell off the cliff) once I had a child..But we considered our options and 20 years on, the options are not bad. Time and patience really really is very important.

suburburban · 27/07/2025 20:03

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:54

Most people I know have adult children and they are all having dc so I’m not convinced this is the case.

Not convinced by what?

Endless immigration especially unskilled or when they may need social housing and top up benefits

FreedomandPeace · 27/07/2025 20:03

user9064385631 · 27/07/2025 19:59

A family member died recently at 94. During his eulogy it was revealed he retired at 50. All us 40’s somethings raised our eyebrows - but it was probably quite normal for that generation. They were expecting to get to 60 something, but the NHS stepped in and they’ve survived strokes, heart attacks, cancer, stuff that killed previous generations.
I think the state pensions will be replaced by enforced contributions to private schemes eventually. And probably means tested within 10 years.

So he was born around 1930. No it wasn’t normal to retire at 50 in 1980. Far from it

ThatBoldBear · 27/07/2025 20:02

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:58

They should have left it out of inheritance tax, it’s made me rethink my planning a bit.

I think this is the thinking that keeps birth rates low once they get to a certain point. Some people become acutely aware of how difficult life will be for their dc so stop at one because they want to provide a house deposit and leave them hundreds of thousands. Or some decide they won't have any because they don't want to invest all that into a dc. The gov can't incentivise on that scale.

The Government taking 40% would not encourage me to have more children, the opposite really.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 20:01

Experts. Numbers. All that hard stuff. You know, facts.

which illustrates my previous post

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 20:00

Isn’t it a government’s job to forecast and plan for what’s needed for the country?

It is but I don't think much of the population actually wants to acknowledge the ageing population & related issues. I mean Reform are selling "lower taxes, lower immigration & improved public services" and people seem keen to buy into that lie.

user9064385631 · 27/07/2025 19:59

A family member died recently at 94. During his eulogy it was revealed he retired at 50. All us 40’s somethings raised our eyebrows - but it was probably quite normal for that generation. They were expecting to get to 60 something, but the NHS stepped in and they’ve survived strokes, heart attacks, cancer, stuff that killed previous generations.
I think the state pensions will be replaced by enforced contributions to private schemes eventually. And probably means tested within 10 years.

drspouse · 27/07/2025 19:59

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:54

Most people I know have adult children and they are all having dc so I’m not convinced this is the case.

Not convinced by what?

Experts. Numbers. All that hard stuff. You know, facts.

FreedomandPeace · 27/07/2025 19:59

suburburban · 27/07/2025 19:52

Most people I know have adult children and they are all having dc so I’m not convinced this is the case.

wouldn’t it be nice if we encouraged them by giving them tax breaks and subsidies for childcare

Thus tiny demographic means nothing I’m afraid. Perhaps check out the stats across the whole country.

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 19:58

HeatonGrov · 27/07/2025 16:11

I do not think most people oppose immigration per se. Most people recognise the need for immigrants with the skill sets we need, who will respect UK laws espouse British values and become net contributors either in economic terms (highly skilled, highly paid and highly taxed) or social terms skilled in their field (eg Health and Social Care) earning a wage and doing a job that needs to be done.

What nobody wants is large scale immigration by people with no/low skills, who are incapable of doing jobs we need and who will always be net recipients of the state. Where such individuals enter the country illegally, commit serious crimes and do not respect our values, opposition increases

It is not difficult to separate these groups of immigrants.

Yet there arent many people who want to do the low skill jobs that most unskilled immigrants are doing. What do you propose for them?

OP posts:
ThatBoldBear · 27/07/2025 19:58

BlueyNeedsToFuckOff · 27/07/2025 19:50

Pensions were never meant to be passed down as inheritance. They’re meant to be spent by the person saving into them to support them when they’re no longer working.

Pass them to your spouse / civil partner by all means, but I really don’t get the issue that people have about them being subject to IHT.

The issue is that previously pensions were IHT exempt and now they’re not. It was a big influence in my planning, I have had to rethink things a bit. It erodes confidence in investing in a long term product such as pensions if the Government change the rules of the product during its duration. What else will they do?

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:58

They should have left it out of inheritance tax, it’s made me rethink my planning a bit.

I think this is the thinking that keeps birth rates low once they get to a certain point. Some people become acutely aware of how difficult life will be for their dc so stop at one because they want to provide a house deposit and leave them hundreds of thousands. Or some decide they won't have any because they don't want to invest all that into a dc. The gov can't incentivise on that scale.

Anonimummy · 27/07/2025 19:58

Maybe we should have incentivised Brits to have more children 20-30 years ago and invested in proper training schemes for essential occupations rather than rely on poaching all those bright young doctors and engineers from poverty stricken countries?

Isn’t it a government’s job to forecast and plan for what’s needed for the country?

Wareart · 27/07/2025 19:57

Need to bring down living costs - housing, utilities, public transport etc. Then it's easier on pensioners and more working people can afford to pay into pension pots.

Also need to sort out the NHS if you want a healthier population. It's a fucking disgrace rn.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:54

Most people I know have adult children and they are all having dc so I’m not convinced this is the case.

Not convinced by what?

Chiseltip · 27/07/2025 19:53

frozendaisy · 27/07/2025 13:09

Need the cash to house and feed them

we can migrate a younger generation from revealing countries as climate change is making more places too hot to survive

movement of the populations

it’s not a problem - except people mean white babies don’t they?

Edited

🤣🤣🤣🤣

suburburban · 27/07/2025 19:52

Most people I know have adult children and they are all having dc so I’m not convinced this is the case.

wouldn’t it be nice if we encouraged them by giving them tax breaks and subsidies for childcare

BlueyNeedsToFuckOff · 27/07/2025 19:50

ThatBoldBear · 27/07/2025 19:20

They should have left it out of inheritance tax, it’s made me rethink my planning a bit.

Pensions were never meant to be passed down as inheritance. They’re meant to be spent by the person saving into them to support them when they’re no longer working.

Pass them to your spouse / civil partner by all means, but I really don’t get the issue that people have about them being subject to IHT.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:49

@Icanttakethisanymore thanks

drspouse · 27/07/2025 19:46

Blackcordoroys · 27/07/2025 13:13

immigration doesn’t Actually solve this problem, as immigrants tend to adjust their birth rate to that of the host country (ie they tend to have one or two children too). Then we have 5 million more people, so we need to bring in 10 million more to pay their pensions, then … the solution, if you like immigration, is to have guest worker visas for fixed time periods but with no entitlement ever to citizenship or indefinite leave to remain. If you don’t like immigration it is to increase the pension age, increase private pension saving vs state and abandon the triple lock.

Initially, though, they do have more children and they are immigrating with qualifications that we haven't paid for, and their own children are more likely to do well at school and become hefty tax payers.
So on balance it probably isn't a bad idea - it provides taxes for pensions now, and fills skills shortages, and then the younger generation is integrated into British society, whereas if you just have worker visas, they might have children here that are in school, but then we get continuing successive waves of people who aren't invested in the UK and don't integrate.
Research shows that language skills are good if you work in your new language (or go to school in it) so that's an argument not to allow elderly dependents but to allow settling and bringing up kids.

Icanttakethisanymore · 27/07/2025 19:43

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:38

@Icanttakethisanymore I will look out for that, thanks

here it is -

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ifs-zooms-in-the-economy/id1511294104?i=1000676221323

I framed the episode incorrectly, it’s about the uk’s demographic challenges but it talks about other countries pronatalist policies within that.

How big are the UK's demographic challenges?

How big are the UK's demographic challenges?

Podcast Episode · IFS Zooms In: The Economy · 08/11/2024 · 48m

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/how-big-are-the-uks-demographic-challenges/id1511294104?i=1000676221323

Papyrophile · 27/07/2025 19:41

I am a bit of a pioneer socially. 1956 born, first gen university educated. I had no intention of having a family at all, until I was 42. And a week later I was pregnant. Lucky? Massively. Now 69, I am working quite actively to ensure that a very substantial part of everything I have earned over 40 years of work ends up in asserts owned outright by my DC.

TBH, if you have not done the same for your children, then you need to start thinking NOW how you might give them an advantage. Because whatever MN and SM tell you, clever hardworking people end up with better outcomes.

FreedomandPeace · 27/07/2025 19:39

ThatBoldBear · 27/07/2025 19:14

Keeping immigration to net tax paying households would reduce immigration and boost tax coffers. Make education tax free again and encourage parents to explore independent education to reduce state education costs massively (especially around SEN). Introduce a national health system similar to Germanys and save an absolute FORTUNE on the NHS. Move the the income tax bands inline with where they would be if not frozen ( e.g. 80k for 40% ) and remove the loss of tax free allowance at 100k to encourage British people to have more children.

Edited

Agree with the German national health service model. It’s much like Guernseys
We might get an uptick in the number of physicians / 10,000 population like Germany.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:38

@Icanttakethisanymore I will look out for that, thanks

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