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Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
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FreedomandPeace · 27/07/2025 20:29

IDontHateRainbows · 27/07/2025 20:26

This be the plan...

Expensive in terms of disability benefits and other welfare payments

Livelovebehappy · 27/07/2025 20:28

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 20:20

And another thing Ive said before on a different thread when people pay taxes to this country they can benefit from the government and the healthcare just as brits do in countries they have settled it. Because how can someone pay taxes but not be able to access nhs or benefits. Plus those people have settled here already do they all get deported

Not deport ones already here, but certainly put a cap on any further immigrants entering the UK. Or allow only those who have skills that add value to our country, like doctors, teachers. We don’t need/want any unskilled workers. We have enough already without importing more.

HeatonGrov · 27/07/2025 20:27

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 20:20

And another thing Ive said before on a different thread when people pay taxes to this country they can benefit from the government and the healthcare just as brits do in countries they have settled it. Because how can someone pay taxes but not be able to access nhs or benefits. Plus those people have settled here already do they all get deported

The groups I am describing are not paying taxes because they are are either not working (too old, no English, cultural objections to work outside the home) or are on minimum wages (car wash, deliveroo etc). They are taking money not contributing. They use the NHS as they are resident here but it is the tax payer who is paying for that. Society can only afford to contribute a limited number of such people before the whole edifice collapses.

I did not mention deporting settled non contributors. Not sure where you get that from.

I would however deport anyone convicted of a serious crime where possible.

Ginghamsheep · 27/07/2025 20:27

Livelovebehappy · 27/07/2025 20:24

The problem with working in care homes is that nearly all the jobs are NMW and attract uneducated/unskilled applicants. A lot of whom are not suitable for the job. I think people working in care homes should get proper training, and have a good level of education. Afterall, we are entrusting vulnerable people to the care system, and need to be confident that the care they’re receiving is good quality care. Salaries for the job should then raise significantly, which will the attract more people. Giving the jobs to immigrants with no skills or in a lot of cases no command of the English language should not be happening.

Agreed. I would actually love to work in care if it was a decently paid and respected vocation.

IDontHateRainbows · 27/07/2025 20:26

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 13:09

don’t you think if the pension age keeps increasing many of us won’t live to pension age at all.

This be the plan...

FreedomandPeace · 27/07/2025 20:25

dizzydizzydizzy · 27/07/2025 20:09

It's not so much the overall number of people when it comes to paying for pensions but the age profile. As you can see from the image (which I took from here: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/the-uks-changing-population/) the proportion of retired people is increasing massively.

We have a conundrum. We need immigrants to come and work in our care homes and hospitals and pay our pensions, oh and pick our fruit, but we don't have endless space. Maybe the answer is we all need to learn to live in much smaller homes.

Yes yes yes!!!
Terraced properties and flats
all near public transport and work
Less cars = less land for cars
More land for agriculture

Can’t stand all these detached off street parking new properties on swirly roads. They cost too much, waste land, materials and are too much to run.

recently looked at a proposed housing project near me and we could fit in a further 23% more homes ( that’s 52 properties) Thus more dense design of ours would have saved other smaller developments or at the least left more grade 1 agricultural land to be just that.

In terms of job vacancies. First and foremost U.K. nationals should have to take jobs available. We should not have people capable of work, not working and then be forced to look abroad.
That’s ridiculous……and that includes fruit picking ( remember covid )

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 20:25

We should be paying care workers a lot more but people don't want to pay for their care and want inheritance to go to their dc. It's all a mess.

Livelovebehappy · 27/07/2025 20:24

The problem with working in care homes is that nearly all the jobs are NMW and attract uneducated/unskilled applicants. A lot of whom are not suitable for the job. I think people working in care homes should get proper training, and have a good level of education. Afterall, we are entrusting vulnerable people to the care system, and need to be confident that the care they’re receiving is good quality care. Salaries for the job should then raise significantly, which will the attract more people. Giving the jobs to immigrants with no skills or in a lot of cases no command of the English language should not be happening.

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 20:23

AI confuses me, who will provide it for free? And where does the money come from to pay people when AI is doing the jobs?

Annoyedone · 27/07/2025 20:22

HeatonGrov · 27/07/2025 20:19

I am banking on AI boosting massively increasing productivity and wealth. The government will be able to redistribute wealth through the tax/benefit system and we will all be fine!

Errr….. that’s a nice dream. So we have a lot of people on benefits as there are no jobs for them. What are they supposed to do with their lives? How will Ai fund growth and wealth? Where is the money coming from?

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 20:20

HeatonGrov · 27/07/2025 20:12

Many low skilled jobs could be automated or dispensed with altogether. We do not need thousands of fast food delivery cyclists. We can go and pick up our pizzas ourselves. We do not need people working 20 hours a week at the supermarket and claiming UC and housing benefit to top up their wages. Machines can do many of these jobs. But for some business owners it is cheaper to employ people than to invest in automation because it is the taxpayer who is subsidising.

Where the role is needed (eg care jobs) but low paid we can subsidise - although we might find that if that subsidy was added to the wage, existing residents would do those jobs.

A significant proportion of people currently immigrating to UK have no qualifications and in many cases no hope of acquiring any. They bring with them, or are followed by, family members who do not work but use up NHS resources. Their children are usually low achievers within the school system because they start school with no/poor English and never catch up. These children also become net recipients. Many form parallel communities - poor or no English - and then return “home” to find a marriage partner and the cycle repeats itself.

They are dding to the problem not alleviating it.

And another thing Ive said before on a different thread when people pay taxes to this country they can benefit from the government and the healthcare just as brits do in countries they have settled it. Because how can someone pay taxes but not be able to access nhs or benefits. Plus those people have settled here already do they all get deported

OP posts:
duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 20:20

and that's another reason for fewer dc

HeatonGrov · 27/07/2025 20:19

I am banking on AI boosting massively increasing productivity and wealth. The government will be able to redistribute wealth through the tax/benefit system and we will all be fine!

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 20:19

Maybe the answer is we all need to learn to live in much smaller homes.

Haven't houses got smaller and are small compared to Europe?

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 20:18

HeatonGrov · 27/07/2025 20:12

Many low skilled jobs could be automated or dispensed with altogether. We do not need thousands of fast food delivery cyclists. We can go and pick up our pizzas ourselves. We do not need people working 20 hours a week at the supermarket and claiming UC and housing benefit to top up their wages. Machines can do many of these jobs. But for some business owners it is cheaper to employ people than to invest in automation because it is the taxpayer who is subsidising.

Where the role is needed (eg care jobs) but low paid we can subsidise - although we might find that if that subsidy was added to the wage, existing residents would do those jobs.

A significant proportion of people currently immigrating to UK have no qualifications and in many cases no hope of acquiring any. They bring with them, or are followed by, family members who do not work but use up NHS resources. Their children are usually low achievers within the school system because they start school with no/poor English and never catch up. These children also become net recipients. Many form parallel communities - poor or no English - and then return “home” to find a marriage partner and the cycle repeats itself.

They are dding to the problem not alleviating it.

But even before all the big waves of low skilled workers came to the uk there was a shortage of low skilled labour workers so even if those workers leave where are the people to fill the jobs. Do you believe that foreigners are stealing jobs? I dont think those positions will be filled by anyone because they dont want to do these jobs in the first place (cleaners, babysitters, waiters, bartenders, security etc)

OP posts:
Wareart · 27/07/2025 20:17

Maybe the answer is we all need to learn to live in much smaller homes.

Our homes are already smaller than in most developed countries. (And older and worse quality (damp etc)). They cost a lot of money but you don't get much for it, already. I don't think making it worse is the answer!

Shittyhouse · 27/07/2025 20:16

How much more can you raise the pension age? People over 50 are already slower at learning new information, and after 60, some begin developing dementia and experiencing physical deterioration as well. Who would want to employ all these liabilities?

YowieeF · 27/07/2025 20:14

Lots of selfish ‘I’m all right Jack’ attitudes to this post.
Who wants to see a bricklayer still working at 70?
There are many things that need to be sorted, people aren’t having children because they can’t afford to buy property and have some security - sky high rent ( more than a mortgage would cost) is prohibitive.

Annoyedone · 27/07/2025 20:13

frozendaisy · 27/07/2025 13:07

Raise pension age
freeze tax brackets
eventually means test

Denmark are going for 70 state pension - other countries will think if they can we should or have to

basically it should be 12 from avaersge life expectancy

you want to retire earlier you will need to fund it

and raising the bar for disability payments is the first step - do that first so it’s work or job sealers then raise pension age

maybe if they made equity release on property a bit more fair rather than private banking making the t&c criminal? People could opt to fund from that

That’s all fine, but if all these older people are working til 70 plus… where do the young people get jobs? Surely we’d just end up with a lot of youth unemployment?

drspouse · 27/07/2025 20:13

@dizzydizzydizzy except that people love having loads of stuff and aren't used to putting up with other people any more so they all want to live in huge houses on their own.

HeatonGrov · 27/07/2025 20:12

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 19:58

Yet there arent many people who want to do the low skill jobs that most unskilled immigrants are doing. What do you propose for them?

Many low skilled jobs could be automated or dispensed with altogether. We do not need thousands of fast food delivery cyclists. We can go and pick up our pizzas ourselves. We do not need people working 20 hours a week at the supermarket and claiming UC and housing benefit to top up their wages. Machines can do many of these jobs. But for some business owners it is cheaper to employ people than to invest in automation because it is the taxpayer who is subsidising.

Where the role is needed (eg care jobs) but low paid we can subsidise - although we might find that if that subsidy was added to the wage, existing residents would do those jobs.

A significant proportion of people currently immigrating to UK have no qualifications and in many cases no hope of acquiring any. They bring with them, or are followed by, family members who do not work but use up NHS resources. Their children are usually low achievers within the school system because they start school with no/poor English and never catch up. These children also become net recipients. Many form parallel communities - poor or no English - and then return “home” to find a marriage partner and the cycle repeats itself.

They are dding to the problem not alleviating it.

LavenderHaze19 · 27/07/2025 20:12

duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 19:28

I think the only developed country that has above replacement birth rates is Isreal but theirs has never dipped below.

I think this is right - the birth rate across the developed world is plummeting, it’s not just the UK.

Which tends to suggest it isn’t, for example, just down to the cost of childcare (although that definitely doesn’t help), because even countries with heavily subsidised childcare are seeing their fertility rates fall.

Biskieboo · 27/07/2025 20:10

BlueyNeedsToFuckOff · 27/07/2025 19:50

Pensions were never meant to be passed down as inheritance. They’re meant to be spent by the person saving into them to support them when they’re no longer working.

Pass them to your spouse / civil partner by all means, but I really don’t get the issue that people have about them being subject to IHT.

Yeah I can't get too excited about pensions being included in my estate for IHT purposes - it always seemed a bit of an anomaly that they weren't tbh. I'm fortunate enough to have built up a very healthy pension pot but the only vague planning I'm doing is around how to blow the lot before I die. If you're worrying about IHT your kids are already doing way betted than most.

dizzydizzydizzy · 27/07/2025 20:09

slightlydistrac · 27/07/2025 13:26

They have already raised the retirement age.

Incidentally, for 2023 (which I just happened to check just now out of curiosity) there were 581,363 deaths and 591,072 births, so there were 10k more births than deaths that year. That same year there were 1.2 million immigrants.

We cannot continue to increase the population of this small country ad infinitum. The human population globally is on the verge of being unable to sustain itself, and if it continues to increase like that, then there will come a time when there will be global food shortages.

Edited

It's not so much the overall number of people when it comes to paying for pensions but the age profile. As you can see from the image (which I took from here: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/the-uks-changing-population/) the proportion of retired people is increasing massively.

We have a conundrum. We need immigrants to come and work in our care homes and hospitals and pay our pensions, oh and pick our fruit, but we don't have endless space. Maybe the answer is we all need to learn to live in much smaller homes.

Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?
duvetsmuvet · 27/07/2025 20:08

Endless immigration especially unskilled or when they may need social housing and top up benefits

Who is arguing for endless unskilled immigration?