Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Who’s going to pay our pensions in 20-30years if the UK keeps its birth rate low and also restricts immigration?

565 replies

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 12:59

posted from another forum
Serious question. The UK’s birth rate is well below replacement level, meaning fewer young people entering the workforce. At the same time, the political mood seems pretty anti-immigration, even though immigration is one of the only things that’s kept the tax base stable.

State pensions are paid by current workers’ National Insurance contributions, not some magic fund. So… what happens when there’s a huge retired population and not enough working-age people to support them?

Will the government raise taxes, increase the retirement age, cut pensions, or eventually U-turn on immigration just to prop things up?

Feels like a ticking time bomb no one’s really addressing. Curious what others think, is anyone actually planning for this?

Or are we as a nation willing to give up state pensions if it means less immigration?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
EasternStandard · 28/07/2025 10:08

Crunchingleaf · 28/07/2025 09:38

It’s the elephant in the room isn’t it. What jobs will people be doing at 65 plus? Yes there are people who can work way past this age but not everyone will be able to reach the performance levels expected.
Also many people would need shorter working hours/week and maybe even an increase in annual leave. As heath conditions start to crop up that can affect energy levels etc and people might need more recovery time.

Plus employers need to take the 65 plus not the younger candidate.

HellsBalls · 28/07/2025 09:54

Has anyone mentioned equity release yet?
People who are asset/property rich should be able to release equity by way of an annuity, if they are struggling or have little pension, stay in their house, and live happily ever after.
Once departed, the equity release company recover their costs from the sale of the property.

There is no way the state should be subsidizing people with a £500k house because they want to leave it to their kids.

Biskieboo · 28/07/2025 09:48

LemondrizzleShark · 28/07/2025 08:40

Compound interest. If you are saving over 40-45 years, it adds up over time. £250 per month over 40 years is £600k, assuming 4% interest. Most people could manage £250 per month from their pre-tax income.

...and really, if you are saving over a decades-long time frame your pension fund shouldn't be anywhere near cash earning a paltry 4% p.a. Ideally you'll be in some sort of equity tracker with rock-bottom fees returning closer to 10% p.a. (which is the long run average return of world equity trackers). With that sort of compounding then fairly small regular contributions starting early in your career can grow to a very decent pot. And auto-enrolment very sensibly started a lot of people off down this path (or at least a path more sensible than ignoring pensions until you're 45, then saving a load in cash).

One of the problems, though, is that so many people seem to have a mortal fear of investing in the stock market, even if on a passive basis. Witness the mooted changes to cash ISA allowances - if that did nudge more people to put more of their long-term savings into equities then a lot of people would benefit in the long run, but the response to those sensible proposals was people screaming blue murder at Rachel Reeves for taking away their right to earn shite returns on £20k every year.

So I do think that inching up auto-enrolment is a key part of the long-term solution, ideally combined with getting people better educated about investing generally.

Crunchingleaf · 28/07/2025 09:38

SouthernNights59 · 28/07/2025 03:01

People always trot out that there are plenty of jobs which can be done in older age, but having worked in admin all my life I can tell them that there comes a time when the brain struggles to keep up with the constantly changing technology. After working for almost 50 years I was well and truly ready to retire at 65 (the retirement age here).

I also took voluntary redundancy at 59, and found it quite difficult to find work after that age.

It’s the elephant in the room isn’t it. What jobs will people be doing at 65 plus? Yes there are people who can work way past this age but not everyone will be able to reach the performance levels expected.
Also many people would need shorter working hours/week and maybe even an increase in annual leave. As heath conditions start to crop up that can affect energy levels etc and people might need more recovery time.

duvetsmuvet · 28/07/2025 09:33

And the majority can't do that at 20...

duvetsmuvet · 28/07/2025 09:33

I’m talking about professionals on £40-80k who say they won’t be able to manage on state pension

Someone on 80k will likely be paying £250 a month into their company's pension if you include employer contributions. This does not necessarily mean they will end up with a 600k pot though..

duvetsmuvet · 28/07/2025 09:30

£250 pre-tax is more like £150 post tax.

And how can you make sure it's pre tax?

duvetsmuvet · 28/07/2025 09:28

Compound interest. If you are saving over 40-45 years, it adds up over time. £250 per month over 40 years is £600k, assuming 4% interest. Most people could manage £250 per month from their pre-tax income.

You think most people can spare £250 a month? 😆

Whatatimeto · 28/07/2025 09:16

LemondrizzleShark · 28/07/2025 08:40

Compound interest. If you are saving over 40-45 years, it adds up over time. £250 per month over 40 years is £600k, assuming 4% interest. Most people could manage £250 per month from their pre-tax income.

But what do people do who are 40/50 years old NOW who didn’t start at 20? I was on 3.25 an hour when I was 18. I couldn’t save £250 a month! And in my 30s as self employed I unfortunately didn’t get any pay for when my parents died and I needed time off. Or needed time off for my many IVF rounds or the time off for surgery for my many miscarriages. All my spare cash went on that. So no I didn’t save much for a few years then either.
And now I don’t have 40 years to save 600k. And I’ll likely be disabled out of my job within 10 more years. So what am I meant to do if they take away the state pension? Yes I’ll happily sell my house and that can fund for a bit. But after that? Then what?

Fearfulsaints · 28/07/2025 09:07

LemondrizzleShark · 28/07/2025 08:40

Compound interest. If you are saving over 40-45 years, it adds up over time. £250 per month over 40 years is £600k, assuming 4% interest. Most people could manage £250 per month from their pre-tax income.

The thing is I started work 30 years ago, and actually my first full time salary was 8.5k! So I couldn't have saved £250 a month. My rent was £300. I then earned 12k, 16k and 18k before hitting about 22k and then wages started to stagnate generally. Housing in particular was cheaper but it wasnt free.

I understand a professional on 40k might be able to save 250 a month now, but I was thinking that with inflation that might look very small in 40 years time. I do understand compound interest but i don't get inflation and taxes impact on what happens.

LemondrizzleShark · 28/07/2025 08:51

IDontHateRainbows · 28/07/2025 08:45

Maybe a few years ago, yes. Now many people especially the young are living and to mouth due to student loans, rents and col rises amid wage stagnation.

Unfortunately it is something you need to prioritise. £250 pre-tax is more like £150 post tax. Somebody on £40k per year or so should be able to find that in the budget, even if it means a smaller house budget, a cheaper holiday, etc.

I agree somebody on NMW couldn’t, but they will likely be better off on pension credit anyway. I’m talking about professionals on £40-80k who say they won’t be able to manage on state pension.

IDontHateRainbows · 28/07/2025 08:45

LemondrizzleShark · 28/07/2025 08:40

Compound interest. If you are saving over 40-45 years, it adds up over time. £250 per month over 40 years is £600k, assuming 4% interest. Most people could manage £250 per month from their pre-tax income.

Maybe a few years ago, yes. Now many people especially the young are living and to mouth due to student loans, rents and col rises amid wage stagnation.

ShesTheAlbatross · 28/07/2025 08:43

Theolittle · 28/07/2025 08:10

Is this sarcasm? Please explain!

Sorry, yes it was sarcasm!

LemondrizzleShark · 28/07/2025 08:40

duvetsmuvet · 28/07/2025 08:30

People see £30 k in their pension pot and think they’ve saved well but you need to save half a million for a decent pension or any chance of early retirement. Best to start young

But realistically how can someone save this much outside of a public sector scheme?

Compound interest. If you are saving over 40-45 years, it adds up over time. £250 per month over 40 years is £600k, assuming 4% interest. Most people could manage £250 per month from their pre-tax income.

Paganpentacle · 28/07/2025 08:38

This is the entire point of a private pension... gotta look after yourself.

Whatatimeto · 28/07/2025 08:36

MickGeorge22 · 28/07/2025 08:32

Basically you are just the same as the vast majority of the population then? I imagine most don't earn more than 40K. You have your own home which is more than a lot of people have.

Yes I agree. But then you read these threads where you get people panicking that their pot is only worth 500k at age 30 and how they’re worried about it. And then everyone chimes in that there definitely won’t be a state pension soon so you’ll need to just work until you drop. Well quite honestly with my job I’ll be dropping sooner than most. I’ll be on disability payments. Then you get told there won’t be those either. You’ll actually just rot and starve. Unless you have children to look after you. Which I don’t.

duvetsmuvet · 28/07/2025 08:33

Don’t you realise that 100% of a £1m (or £500k if unmarried) plus 60% of everything over that is the same as getting absolutely nothing!

What does this mean?

MickGeorge22 · 28/07/2025 08:32

Whatatimeto · 28/07/2025 07:57

I actually can’t worry about pensions anymore. Every way you turn you’re screwed unless you have a pension pot of at least a million.

I started work at 16. Worked in low paid jobs until I went back to education at 24. Started better paid (talking like 35k not stupidly high) job at 27. I have been working in this job for almost 20 years now. My pay has hardly changed (40k now) so what was a decent paid job 20 years ago isn’t that great anymore (I do realise it’s not terrible). It’s a healthcare profession and quite physically demanding at times. I now have constant pain which started about 7 years ago. I pay for private physio once a month to try and keep it under control but I have been told the damage is done and it’s a case of only managing it now unless I change careers. But it will likely get worse. I KNOW I will not be able to do this job at 70. Not a chance. I’m worried I won’t be able to do it in 10 years if I’m honest.

Pensions were not really talked about when i started work at 16. So I didn’t have one when i finally started my better work at 27. Then I was self employed. So no employer benefits or company pension with employer contributions. I had to fund my own holiday/sick pay etc. I do regret not starting a pension then. Then in my 30s I did have a fairly decent amount of savings, infertility hit. We spent thousands on IVF that failed so all my savings were gone. My husband and I had already moved house to a bigger house (and bigger mortgage) from our 1 bed flat because who thinks you’ll never actually have a baby? My husband earns less than me so he’s not one of those high flyer types everyone is married to on here. I finally got an employed job at 40 and now have a proper pension. But it’s obviously never going to be a huge pension. My career also doesn’t have any progression. So I have no further extra earning potential unless I totally changed careers. And as I’m closing in on 50 that just isn’t going to help as there’s no time to progress.

With a state pension between us my husband and I will survive with our small private/workplace pensions to top up. Plus we’re more than happy to downsize and live off house money in the future. That was the plan. But then you take away the state pension and we’re screwed. Ok so we’ll sell the house. But reading on here everyone is desperate for a property price crash so if that happens we’ll have nothing from that either. So you’ll need to have your kids help you then. Oh you don’t have any? Well you’re just one of those selfish people who should have loads of money. You don’t deserve any help because you’re just taking from other people’s children who have sacrificed everything so their kids can wipe your bum.

I didn’t plan on having this life. Yeah I wish I’d chosen one of those office careers that pay 100k plus and you work from home every day. I made a mistake working with people and trying to help them and choosing a career that’s crippling me and isn’t well paid. I wish I could have seen in the future and seen that no matter how many thousands I threw at IVF etc nothing would work. I wish I hadn’t had hopes and bought a bigger house in preparation for the family I couldn’t have. Yes I wish I had started a pension at 18. But I was earning like 3.25 back then so it wasn’t really on my radar.

I guess everyone on here should be quite happy though because my parents both died in their 60s (they were those decent boomers who died without taking hardly any state pension. Mum 2 years, dad none) so if I follow that trend at least I won’t need to worry about pension either because I’ll be dead. None of your kids will need to wipe my bum.

Basically you are just the same as the vast majority of the population then? I imagine most don't earn more than 40K. You have your own home which is more than a lot of people have.

duvetsmuvet · 28/07/2025 08:30

People see £30 k in their pension pot and think they’ve saved well but you need to save half a million for a decent pension or any chance of early retirement. Best to start young

But realistically how can someone save this much outside of a public sector scheme?

BubblyBath178 · 28/07/2025 08:27

They need to tackle the unemployment issues. I’ve got absolutely no problem with people who are so disabled that they can’t work. However, most disabled people can work. Some just choose not to and take handouts. It actually makes me sick to the stomach to fund a lifestyle like that when I’m out working everyday.

MorningLarkEchoes · 28/07/2025 08:12

AlertEagle · 27/07/2025 13:09

don’t you think if the pension age keeps increasing many of us won’t live to pension age at all.

Exactly.

Theolittle · 28/07/2025 08:10

ShesTheAlbatross · 28/07/2025 07:55

Don’t you realise that 100% of a £1m (or £500k if unmarried) plus 60% of everything over that is the same as getting absolutely nothing!

Is this sarcasm? Please explain!

frozendaisy · 28/07/2025 08:09

Annoyedone · 27/07/2025 20:13

That’s all fine, but if all these older people are working til 70 plus… where do the young people get jobs? Surely we’d just end up with a lot of youth unemployment?

Well not really if there is a lower birth rate

If we need say 3-4 workers per pensioner then older workers are needed

Ginmonkeyagain · 28/07/2025 08:09

@ThisTicklishFatball you pay half your salary tax and you think IHT is 100% - who thee fuck is giving you tax advice? Get a better accountant.

frozendaisy · 28/07/2025 08:07

YowieeF · 27/07/2025 20:14

Lots of selfish ‘I’m all right Jack’ attitudes to this post.
Who wants to see a bricklayer still working at 70?
There are many things that need to be sorted, people aren’t having children because they can’t afford to buy property and have some security - sky high rent ( more than a mortgage would cost) is prohibitive.

People don’t have to work until 70 or whatever state pension age is, we are always told trades are a good wage, trades can invest in pensions as well you know to retire early.

Swipe left for the next trending thread