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To give DD school (and the SATs agency) some basic statistical literacy?

188 replies

drspouse · 19/07/2025 10:30

DD has her SATs report with her end of term report.
She got 89 in her English grammar and 93/94 in her other English and in Maths.
This has been reported as "not reached standards" or similar by school.
As a PhD in a subject requiring statistics I know that 85 would be one standard deviation below the mean (100) and that scores of between 85 and 115 are statistically indistinguishable from 100.
Put another way, if you have to have 100 to "reach standard" they are assuming that half the children automatically won't reach the required standard.
AIBU to explain this to you and to school and my fellow parents?
DD was in a group of 2 struggling with maths at the bottom of the class for several years and I'm really proud not just that she's progressed but also that she's now in the middle of the national scores.
This is a ridiculous way to "explain" to parents (unless their explanation is wrong and it's not a normal distribution with a median of 100?)

OP posts:
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6
NeverDropYourMooncup · 19/07/2025 12:31

cantkeepawayforever · 19/07/2025 12:02

To be fair, the school’s communication was poor. Had they simply given a link to how the scores are calculated, OP would not have been misled.

Trouble is that a 'simple link' is not accessible to all parents, whether for reasons of literacy, language or numeracy; you'd still have some asking 'but what does this mean?'. It's difficult to find a way of conveying the information without at least some people becoming confused, upset or offended.

If you pick a shorthand of High, Mid, Low, people get upset. If you use the attempt at neutrality of met the expected standard/working towards the standard/exceeded the standard, people get upset, if you link to a document containing words or explanations that they don't understand, people get upset, if you reduce it to 'she's at the level we expected for her, everything is fine, she hasn't fallen back', people get upset. We have posts this week from people upset that school reports have mentioned areas children find difficult because reports should be hagiographies and others upset that there isn't any actual indication of the level/progress their children are at because it's all generic phrases that sound nice but mean nothing.

There is no way for schools to win with communications reporting on assessment and progress; you just can't please all of the people all of the time.

Inthecafe · 19/07/2025 12:29

Focus on educating the school

rather than trying to improve your daughter’s educational attainment

Inthecafe · 19/07/2025 12:28

Go for it op
drop the head teacher an email

I dare you! 😊

cantkeepawayforever · 19/07/2025 12:27

drspouse · 19/07/2025 12:14

I saw that thanks @Ffion56 but as you don't know all the other pupils scores it doesn't help me much with how she's done compared to other DCs her age.

What is it that you meed to know, precisely?

Do you need to know exactly where in the centiles she lay? For what purpose? You know she’s below c.75% of her peers because she’s below 100, and she’s a distance off (as the peak of the distribution will fall above 100, the distribution graph will be rising above her scores and falling below them).

Are you worried about eg setting in her secondary? Do they set on the basis of SATs? As a non-grammar in a grammar county, the highest attainers will not be in her school, so she will be closer to ‘the middle’ of her school’s ability range than she would be in a full comprehensive in a non-selective county.

I have already posted about how her trajectory may well be seen by her secondary. One real advantage for her and for you is that she has a genuine opportunity to ‘beat her predictions’ and reap the self-esteem that comes from that.

Also, the narrow range of subjects vs secondary could hide her strengths - art, drama, sport, music, DT etc etc are all utterly unlinked to her SATs, as is ‘being a genuinely nice person who tries her best and everyone likes’.

JassyRadlett · 19/07/2025 12:26

Your school is thoroughly confused about how the scores word. Neither median nor mean are relevant. 100 represents the threshold for having met the expected standard - it's the pass mark.

The STA sets out here how the scoring system works.

Understanding scaled scores at key stage 2

Information for schools and local authorities about scaled scores and the expected standard for the key stage 2 national curriculum tests.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/understanding-scaled-scores-at-key-stage-2

Ffion56 · 19/07/2025 12:25

75% reached expected standard in reading
73% reached expected standard in grammar
74% reached expected standard in maths
62% reached expected standard in all 3

twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 12:16

drspouse · 19/07/2025 12:14

I saw that thanks @Ffion56 but as you don't know all the other pupils scores it doesn't help me much with how she's done compared to other DCs her age.

Yes it does, that's literally what the statements are.

More important than her results though is why does that even matter? Do you compare her to other children? Do you let her know thats what you do?

modgepodge · 19/07/2025 12:16

Hedonism · 19/07/2025 12:08

You are going to look like a massive twat if you try to give the school and the DfE some 'basic statistical literacy' based on your fundamental misunderstanding of how the sats scores work.

Quite!!!

Having taught hundreds of y6 children, I can assure you that children getting 85 and 115 are very very different. A child scoring 85 will be struggling with maths. A child scoring 115 will be extremely good at maths. A child scoring 85 one day will not just happen to score 115 the next and vice versa (bad days and extremely lucky guesses aside!) Whereas, a child scoring 99 and one scoring 101 may well be indistinguishable.

given the lowest possible score is 80 and the highest 120 how can 85 and 115 be ‘statistically indistinguishable’?!

also, SATS scores are not age standardised, as someone else above seems to think they are.

Parker231 · 19/07/2025 12:16

This is all you need to look at

What's the score range of the SATs?

Here's a breakdown of the score ranges and what they mean:

120 – This is the highest score available in the KS2 SATs

110-119 – Any score above 110 (including 120) means that a child has exceeded the expected standard in the test and is working at greater depth.

100 – This is the expected standard for children. It basically means they are working at an age-related expectation.

80-99 – Any child awarded a scaled score of 99 or below has not met the expected standard in their SATs. Often, schools refer to these children as ‘working towards the expected standard’.

80 – The lowest scaled score that can be given

drspouse · 19/07/2025 12:14

I saw that thanks @Ffion56 but as you don't know all the other pupils scores it doesn't help me much with how she's done compared to other DCs her age.

OP posts:
Ffion56 · 19/07/2025 12:12

This tells you her raw scores. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/key-stage-2-tests-2025-scaled-scores/2025-key-stage-2-scaled-score-conversion-tables

Based on the scales scores you gave
Grammar - scaled score of 89 was 13 or 14 marks out of a possible 70.
English (reading) - scaled score of 93 was 18 marks out of a possible 50
Maths - scaled score of 94 was 34,35,36 or 37 marks out of a possible 110

To get the expected standard children needed
Grammar - at least 35/70
English Reading - at least 28/50
Maths - at least 58/110

2025 key stage 2 scaled score conversion tables

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/key-stage-2-tests-2025-scaled-scores/2025-key-stage-2-scaled-score-conversion-tables

BarnOwlFlying · 19/07/2025 12:10

cantkeepawayforever · 19/07/2025 12:02

To be fair, the school’s communication was poor. Had they simply given a link to how the scores are calculated, OP would not have been misled.

We don’t know what the school said. How do we know they didn’t perfectly explain the statistics? They most likely have nothing else to do at the end of a school term than explaining statistics to parents…

Hedonism · 19/07/2025 12:08

You are going to look like a massive twat if you try to give the school and the DfE some 'basic statistical literacy' based on your fundamental misunderstanding of how the sats scores work.

Swiftie1878 · 19/07/2025 12:06

drspouse · 19/07/2025 11:58

@WrigglyDonCat I'm not confusing the things you say, though. I'm assuming that when the school said "100 is the middle of the pupils' scores" they meant it was a standardised score.
But it is in no way standardised and (which could be for a number of reasons including a really bad test and a lot of children at the top or bottom end not taking the test) not normally distributed.

Now if they'd release the distribution and the s.d. I could just go away and happily work out exactly where DD was.

(and don't worry, I haven't told her she's "passed" or "failed" - she's had enough worry with her peers going to grammar making her worry she had to do well enough on her SATs to go to her choice of secondary).

The school wasn’t communicating as a statistician. It was communicating in lay terms to parents who need to understand how their child is doing in school compared to how they should be performing at the end of KS2, and compared to their class peers.
It’s to help focus attention and resources on each child in the most effective way going into KS3.

BarnOwlFlying · 19/07/2025 12:05

OP your time might be better spent looking to be kind to others rather than criticising them over their statistical knowledge, especially as yours doesn’t seem that impressive.
Teachers have a really hard job. I’m a TA, the pupils I work with scream, shout, threaten to punch me, try and punch/hit me, overturn furniture, it’s really hard.
I find it a bit petty that you are blaming the school for something the government do and criticising them because your statistical knowledge is oh so much better…

Why don’t leave the school alone, think of something positive to thank them for and move on, focusing instead on your daughter and all she has achieved despite her challenges. It will be much better for your mental health.

twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 12:03

cantkeepawayforever · 19/07/2025 12:02

To be fair, the school’s communication was poor. Had they simply given a link to how the scores are calculated, OP would not have been misled.

So she could have just posted "how are SATS scores calculated" instead of the arrogant post she did put up

cantkeepawayforever · 19/07/2025 12:02

To be fair, the school’s communication was poor. Had they simply given a link to how the scores are calculated, OP would not have been misled.

twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 12:01

drspouse · 19/07/2025 10:30

DD has her SATs report with her end of term report.
She got 89 in her English grammar and 93/94 in her other English and in Maths.
This has been reported as "not reached standards" or similar by school.
As a PhD in a subject requiring statistics I know that 85 would be one standard deviation below the mean (100) and that scores of between 85 and 115 are statistically indistinguishable from 100.
Put another way, if you have to have 100 to "reach standard" they are assuming that half the children automatically won't reach the required standard.
AIBU to explain this to you and to school and my fellow parents?
DD was in a group of 2 struggling with maths at the bottom of the class for several years and I'm really proud not just that she's progressed but also that she's now in the middle of the national scores.
This is a ridiculous way to "explain" to parents (unless their explanation is wrong and it's not a normal distribution with a median of 100?)

You have made yourself sound like a bit of a dick here because you don't understand the scores for SATS. Certainly go ahead and lecture others about your superior knowledge, let us know how that goes though.

drspouse · 19/07/2025 11:59

(and another reason tests might not be normally distributed is that they are not designed that way on purpose - the phonics screening isn't).

OP posts:
drspouse · 19/07/2025 11:58

@WrigglyDonCat I'm not confusing the things you say, though. I'm assuming that when the school said "100 is the middle of the pupils' scores" they meant it was a standardised score.
But it is in no way standardised and (which could be for a number of reasons including a really bad test and a lot of children at the top or bottom end not taking the test) not normally distributed.

Now if they'd release the distribution and the s.d. I could just go away and happily work out exactly where DD was.

(and don't worry, I haven't told her she's "passed" or "failed" - she's had enough worry with her peers going to grammar making her worry she had to do well enough on her SATs to go to her choice of secondary).

OP posts:
cantkeepawayforever · 19/07/2025 11:53

I think that the description of your DD and her work very much matches the narrative description given for her scores - she is ‘working towards the expected standard’.

The scores that will be important for secondary are the English Reading and the Maths, as they are used to calculate ‘Progress 8’ after GCSEs, the measure of how she does against others with the same starting point nationally.

With 93/94 and a background of support within a smaller group to help her to make better progress, her secondary (if state) will see her as someone within reach of expected standards in key GCSEs when the time comes and (if resources allow by that point) she may well be a candidate for additional boosting. If they can get her to good passes in GCSEs, she will greatly boost their progress scores, whereas had she just scraped 100 that progress might not look as good.

I know from previous posts you are a hugely involved and active parent so in many ways she is ideally set up for the next step.

drspouse · 19/07/2025 11:51

I realise, of course, that I've said mean in my OP when I mean median. Gah! My supervisor would have my guts for garters.

But these aren't standardised scores - they are scaled scores - so if you aren't clear on the difference here's a handy crib sheet.

kb.insighttracking.com/article/0egdg261ko-the-difference-between-standardised-and-scaled-scores

There's masses of error in any test, including IQ tests. You can't be any more than 95% confident that a child scoring 115 on an IQ test is more intelligent than a child scoring 85. Of course, that's probably close enough for government work (as they used to say).

OP posts:
NeverDropYourMooncup · 19/07/2025 11:49

CurlyKoalie · 19/07/2025 10:53

As an ex teacher who is reasonably mathematically literate,I have had this conversation with senior leaders many times.
It's very disappointing how mathematically illiterate many SLT and so called data managers are. A combination of poorly written assessments and poorly designed algorithems often lead to an output of total garbage, but as long as it prints a report with lots of pretty colours many school leadership teams are satisfied.
Ask them about the degree of uncertainty on the algorithem they are using and the size of cohort needed to give statistical significance.
I hate the way dodgy data is used to label children

As one of those 'so called data managers', it often rankles to have teachers lecturing me on algorithms developed on the basis of many thousands of children's data over many years as though it's something I've decided to tosh into SIMS for shits and giggles. I know the limitations, I know that a cohort of 60 from an extremely deprived neighbourhood where half hadn't encountered English three years ago isn't going to exactly replicate the expected outcomes arrived at from around 750,000 separate data points collected every year.

I also know that it makes absolutely zero difference to the DfE that Mrs Curly haranguing me is ruining my day, we will be judged on the basis of progress made in relation to the average score of Maths and Reading as measured at the end of KS2. Unfortunately, Mrs Curly doesn't seem to see beyond criticising the data being turned into graphs and charts and her thoughts upon her own numeracy skills to appreciate that fact when, quite frankly, I'm more concerned with doing my job and not appeasing people who don't like what the data says about their class compared to other teachers'.

drspouse · 19/07/2025 11:45

Heronwatcher · 19/07/2025 10:46

scores of between 85 and 115 are statistically indistinguishable from 100.

If you look at the raw scores needed to generate a scaled score of 85, 100 and 115 this just isn’t true.

This is, in fact, true for a normal distribution centred around 100.
But we can't calculate the SD from the scaled scores, and these aren't standardised scores.

OP posts: