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To give DD school (and the SATs agency) some basic statistical literacy?

188 replies

drspouse · 19/07/2025 10:30

DD has her SATs report with her end of term report.
She got 89 in her English grammar and 93/94 in her other English and in Maths.
This has been reported as "not reached standards" or similar by school.
As a PhD in a subject requiring statistics I know that 85 would be one standard deviation below the mean (100) and that scores of between 85 and 115 are statistically indistinguishable from 100.
Put another way, if you have to have 100 to "reach standard" they are assuming that half the children automatically won't reach the required standard.
AIBU to explain this to you and to school and my fellow parents?
DD was in a group of 2 struggling with maths at the bottom of the class for several years and I'm really proud not just that she's progressed but also that she's now in the middle of the national scores.
This is a ridiculous way to "explain" to parents (unless their explanation is wrong and it's not a normal distribution with a median of 100?)

OP posts:
Thread gallery
6
Shortbread49 · 19/07/2025 14:22

As another statistician I feel confidence intervals are a step too far for this chat 🤣

twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 14:20

drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:15

I'm not saying that.

I'm saying that the school originally explained things in a way that said 100 was BOTH the average score AND the pass mark i.e. they were suggesting half of children always fail.
I'm happy DD will get extra help in Y7 but I already knew that so this makes no difference to us.
I'm not happy that they aren't explaining it right and aren't (probably aren't able to) giving a margin of error.

If you've ever had an EP report for a child you will have been given this margin of error. It's pretty important. DD scores could be even lower, in reality, if the margin of error is big.

Honestly though these are only SATS. They only matter to the school.
I hope you don't have the same attitude when it comes to GCSEs otherwise you're going to be expending a whole lot of needless energy

drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:19

@SophieJo "accepting your child's ability" sounds an awful lot like "don't bother making any plans for your child that involve academic achievement".
(And as others have said, these aren't ability tests...).
But as I have said, we already know she's getting help at secondary, she already has maths tuition and is moving up the ranks in her class in that after a very low start post pandemic.
So I don't think it's either a foregone conclusion she's "low cognitively" as a delightful teacher said of my other DC, or a point where we should rest on our laurels.

OP posts:
twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 14:17

drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:15

I'm not saying that.

I'm saying that the school originally explained things in a way that said 100 was BOTH the average score AND the pass mark i.e. they were suggesting half of children always fail.
I'm happy DD will get extra help in Y7 but I already knew that so this makes no difference to us.
I'm not happy that they aren't explaining it right and aren't (probably aren't able to) giving a margin of error.

If you've ever had an EP report for a child you will have been given this margin of error. It's pretty important. DD scores could be even lower, in reality, if the margin of error is big.

The school don't calculate the result though. The exam board do and work to DfE guidance as to boundaries.

drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:15

twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 14:08

It is coming across that OP isn't happy with her DDs scores and wants to find something that will tell her the opposite of what those scores are currently telling her.
I feel sorry for her DD.

I'm not saying that.

I'm saying that the school originally explained things in a way that said 100 was BOTH the average score AND the pass mark i.e. they were suggesting half of children always fail.
I'm happy DD will get extra help in Y7 but I already knew that so this makes no difference to us.
I'm not happy that they aren't explaining it right and aren't (probably aren't able to) giving a margin of error.

If you've ever had an EP report for a child you will have been given this margin of error. It's pretty important. DD scores could be even lower, in reality, if the margin of error is big.

OP posts:
drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:11

@twistyizzy the point of the thread was, the school had told us that the average child gets 100 and it's called a 'standard score' and if you don't get that many you haven't passed - but the mean child gets more than that, and it's not a standard score (which has confused quite a few people on this thread, though that's not too surprising), it's a scaled score.

If the school had understood what a scaled score was, or hadn't said that an average child gets 100, I'd have understood what they were saying!

The rest of this is me trying to explain confidence intervals, more or less.
The SATs distribution will have a confidence interval that can be calculated, but it might not be something they release.

OP posts:
Bertielong3 · 19/07/2025 14:11

This reply has been withdrawn

This message has been withdrawn at the poster's request

twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 14:08

SophieJo · 19/07/2025 14:06

You need to take note of this post and accept your child’s ability.

It is coming across that OP isn't happy with her DDs scores and wants to find something that will tell her the opposite of what those scores are currently telling her.
I feel sorry for her DD.

SophieJo · 19/07/2025 14:06

Parker231 · 19/07/2025 12:16

This is all you need to look at

What's the score range of the SATs?

Here's a breakdown of the score ranges and what they mean:

120 – This is the highest score available in the KS2 SATs

110-119 – Any score above 110 (including 120) means that a child has exceeded the expected standard in the test and is working at greater depth.

100 – This is the expected standard for children. It basically means they are working at an age-related expectation.

80-99 – Any child awarded a scaled score of 99 or below has not met the expected standard in their SATs. Often, schools refer to these children as ‘working towards the expected standard’.

80 – The lowest scaled score that can be given

You need to take note of this post and accept your child’s ability.

drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:05

@TeenToTwenties thanks for that but she's already doing a language at home and we chose this school because it offers a language from her home country (she's adopted from overseas). Evidence shows knowing two languages helps with general learning and she's already understood more from Duolingo and me talking it over with her, about some aspects of grammar. Plus she's proud to learn it.

OP posts:
twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 14:05

drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:01

I am aware of that - I'm talking about how IQ tests are constructed.

At first I thought we knew the distribution and the SD of the SATs.
But apparently we don't.
Just how sure you can be that a child with 115 and a child with 100 are genuinely different depends on the SD.
Which neither you or I know.
They could be really accurate with very little error and the CI could be 2.
Or they could be really poor with a massive CI bigger than the difference between the mean and the maximum score.
Maybe we will get the full data some time, I don't know (now I've looked into it further) whether they routinely release it.

But, again, why does it matter? Why is it so important to you?
They are SATS so, while they can indicate future achievement, they don't set that achievement in stone and all children develop at different stages.

drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:02

Whendotheysleep · 19/07/2025 13:59

You literally do though... They are published nationally and Ffion56 has posted the percentages above. If you mean for your dcs school, they will also publish those. I am an experienced Year 6 teacher and a scaled score of 89 is very low in most cohorts.

Perhaps that's not what you meant... if so sorry please ignore

No, that's not what I meant: we know the mean but we don't know what proportion score between the mean and 89. Unless you can find that data, in which case I can find out.

OP posts:
drspouse · 19/07/2025 14:01

noblegiraffe · 19/07/2025 13:38

SATs don't measure intelligence, they measure attainment. It's pretty clear that the kid scoring 115 has done better on the test than the kid scoring 85.

Prior attainment is also a reasonable predictor of future attainment. The kid who got 115 is more likely to do well in their GCSEs than the kid who got 85.

I am aware of that - I'm talking about how IQ tests are constructed.

At first I thought we knew the distribution and the SD of the SATs.
But apparently we don't.
Just how sure you can be that a child with 115 and a child with 100 are genuinely different depends on the SD.
Which neither you or I know.
They could be really accurate with very little error and the CI could be 2.
Or they could be really poor with a massive CI bigger than the difference between the mean and the maximum score.
Maybe we will get the full data some time, I don't know (now I've looked into it further) whether they routinely release it.

OP posts:
Whendotheysleep · 19/07/2025 13:59

drspouse · 19/07/2025 12:14

I saw that thanks @Ffion56 but as you don't know all the other pupils scores it doesn't help me much with how she's done compared to other DCs her age.

You literally do though... They are published nationally and Ffion56 has posted the percentages above. If you mean for your dcs school, they will also publish those. I am an experienced Year 6 teacher and a scaled score of 89 is very low in most cohorts.

Perhaps that's not what you meant... if so sorry please ignore

TeenToTwenties · 19/07/2025 13:43

@drspouse With those scores I would expect your DC to be in bottom quartile sets for any subjects they set in immediately. (Comparing the scores my DD had and her initial sets in her comp).

If the scores are a reasonable reflection of her ability she is likely to struggle to get to grade 4 in English & Maths in year 11 without strong intervention.

Her literacy may well mean she struggles to show what she knows in other written subjects.

I would be looking at her not doing an MFL in y7 if that is an option at all to be replaced with English intervention. If she has been unable to learn the stuff for the SPaG test then learning the grammar and spelling for say French may be a waste of effort (it was for DD).

noblegiraffe · 19/07/2025 13:38

drspouse · 19/07/2025 11:51

I realise, of course, that I've said mean in my OP when I mean median. Gah! My supervisor would have my guts for garters.

But these aren't standardised scores - they are scaled scores - so if you aren't clear on the difference here's a handy crib sheet.

kb.insighttracking.com/article/0egdg261ko-the-difference-between-standardised-and-scaled-scores

There's masses of error in any test, including IQ tests. You can't be any more than 95% confident that a child scoring 115 on an IQ test is more intelligent than a child scoring 85. Of course, that's probably close enough for government work (as they used to say).

SATs don't measure intelligence, they measure attainment. It's pretty clear that the kid scoring 115 has done better on the test than the kid scoring 85.

Prior attainment is also a reasonable predictor of future attainment. The kid who got 115 is more likely to do well in their GCSEs than the kid who got 85.

prawncocktail78 · 19/07/2025 13:32

OP I wouldn’t worry about the scores too much. They are a measure of the school and a guide for secondaries as you which children might need extra help or extra stretching.

your DDs are quite low particularly in grammar so I would concentrate my efforts on making sure she has any help she’s entitled too. Academics isn’t everything encourage her in other ways

Heronwatcher · 19/07/2025 13:30

drspouse · 19/07/2025 12:14

I saw that thanks @Ffion56 but as you don't know all the other pupils scores it doesn't help me much with how she's done compared to other DCs her age.

But you do know how she’s doing as against the expected standard for children her age, that’s the whole point of setting an expected standard for your child’s year, which has an adjustment for age baked in, and then telling you how your daughter is performing compared to that standard?

Put it another way, every child of your daughter’s age will have been assessed against that same expected standard and given the same adjustment for age. It’s not the case that everyone born in September passes, and everyone born in June fails. That’s the whole point of adjusting the raw data to a scaled score which accounts for age. You may not know how every other child of your daughter’s age has performed but what more would that give you?

It does slightly sound as though the school
confused you but also a bit like you’re trying to undermine the data slightly because you’re a bit worried about your daughter. Completely understandable but remember no stats are perfect, but they’re not completely useless either. And your daughter’s scores are decent, with good support at secondary and at home
i am sure she’ll progress really well.

EatingHealthy · 19/07/2025 13:17

Leaving aside the fact that you've now been informed that the results are not normally distributed with a mean of 100, your op seems to suggest that you think all distributions with a mean of 100 have a standard deviation of 15 which is categorically wrong. The whole point of a standard deviation is to tell you how widely spread the data is about the mean. Knowing the mean of a sample or population tells you nothing about the standard deviation - which is precisely why people use not just the mean but also the s.d to describe normally distributed data.

TheFrendo · 19/07/2025 12:57

It is not a normal distribution with a mean of 100. It is a distribution designed to obfuscate and confuse. (The median score for maths is normally 105/6).

The conversion tables from raw to scaled scores are here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/key-stage-2-tests-2025-scaled-scores/2025-key-stage-2-scaled-score-conversion-tables

The scores you quote are quite low.

94 in maths means a maximum of 37 marks out of 110.

2025 key stage 2 scaled score conversion tables

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/key-stage-2-tests-2025-scaled-scores/2025-key-stage-2-scaled-score-conversion-tables

twistyizzy · 19/07/2025 12:43

Zellycat · 19/07/2025 12:41

You should be entitled to see the distribution of whatever if they are giving you a result with no context it’s pointless.

My child’s private school wouldn’t show your child’s full report, they would put numbers in an email. Infuriating as they think parents are stupid. I have a gifted child and they would always tell me he was “well placed in his year group with many bright children”. Hundred percent hiding his results to keep him at their mediocre school. My other child struggled with some subjects and they would say same thing. A huge effort to keep the parents ignorant and happy paying fees. They pretended the results were just a single number.

Needless to say, moved them to a more communicative school which met both their needs. Gifted has graduated Oxbridge w a first … would never if stayed at the school hiding the results. Other got great support and at good Uni.

Press them for more comprehensive results.

Take it you have no experience of SATs and how they are calculated? These aren't school scores, they are national tests.

Zellycat · 19/07/2025 12:41

drspouse · 19/07/2025 10:30

DD has her SATs report with her end of term report.
She got 89 in her English grammar and 93/94 in her other English and in Maths.
This has been reported as "not reached standards" or similar by school.
As a PhD in a subject requiring statistics I know that 85 would be one standard deviation below the mean (100) and that scores of between 85 and 115 are statistically indistinguishable from 100.
Put another way, if you have to have 100 to "reach standard" they are assuming that half the children automatically won't reach the required standard.
AIBU to explain this to you and to school and my fellow parents?
DD was in a group of 2 struggling with maths at the bottom of the class for several years and I'm really proud not just that she's progressed but also that she's now in the middle of the national scores.
This is a ridiculous way to "explain" to parents (unless their explanation is wrong and it's not a normal distribution with a median of 100?)

You should be entitled to see the distribution of whatever if they are giving you a result with no context it’s pointless.

My child’s private school wouldn’t show your child’s full report, they would put numbers in an email. Infuriating as they think parents are stupid. I have a gifted child and they would always tell me he was “well placed in his year group with many bright children”. Hundred percent hiding his results to keep him at their mediocre school. My other child struggled with some subjects and they would say same thing. A huge effort to keep the parents ignorant and happy paying fees. They pretended the results were just a single number.

Needless to say, moved them to a more communicative school which met both their needs. Gifted has graduated Oxbridge w a first … would never if stayed at the school hiding the results. Other got great support and at good Uni.

Press them for more comprehensive results.

Parker231 · 19/07/2025 12:34

Lolapusht · 19/07/2025 11:30

My DC haven’t done SATs yet so I’ve got that to look forward to, but why on earth is it so complicated?? Who is that meant to help? Our school got really good results looking at the final percentages, but I can’t get my head around the different ‘pass/fail’ numbers. Is this all explained to parents in Yr6?

Why can’t we just let teachers blooming well teach?!

It’s very straightforward - look at my post of 12.16
The OP is making it overly complicated

NeverDropYourMooncup · 19/07/2025 12:34

drspouse · 19/07/2025 12:14

I saw that thanks @Ffion56 but as you don't know all the other pupils scores it doesn't help me much with how she's done compared to other DCs her age.

In short, not as well. Hence the scores being at the lower end.

HappyValley1025 · 19/07/2025 12:32

lilyboleyn · 19/07/2025 10:52

Standardised scores aren’t spread across a bell curve. They take their raw scores and adapt it to allow for age differences within a year group because there’s a big difference between a child born in August and one in July taking the same test - standardised scores even this indifference out.

A standardised score of 100 shows average level intelligence. 115 is children who are performing very well. 85 less so. The school isn’t wrong, you’re applying your statistical background inaccurately within this context. There’s a big difference between those scores, sorry.

SATs scores have nothing to do with intelligence. SATs don’t test intelligence.