Rethinking decline: why blaming migrants might miss the point

Did you not actually read the post?

Higher automation = higher productivity. Higher productivity = higher taxes. Higher taxes / fewer people = richer and better off country.

It's so simple yet productivity has been low for decades. 🤔

How does higher taxes/fewer people equal a richer country when the majority of those fewer people are old?

I remember having this conversation with DH post brexit. I figured the upside would be an acceleration in automation. I was wrong we went with more people. It’s actually insane.

Migrants, on average are net takers, not net contributors.

Can you please provide some data to underpin that statement? Because everything I have looked up and read suggests the exact opposite.

No, thats not the case at all.

In fact this miscalculated (literally) fawning over low paid work and making it sound virtuous is part of the problem. Doing low paid work does not make you special or a hero, nor does doing high paid work.

But importing low skilled migrants does exacerbate the problem. It creates a cycle of doom in the economy where it artificially crates a supply of labour when businesses would otherwise invest in automation. It basic business principles. Supply and demand. When supply of labour is low, cost of labour goes up. So investing in automation becomes the default position. Which then improves productivity in the economy with more output and more taxes to go around funding services for fewer people.

Higher automation = higher productivity. Higher productivity = higher taxes.
Higher taxes / fewer people = richer and better off country.

what we have is the exact opposite. Unlimited supply of imported unskilled labour. Low productivity. Leas tax to pay for services for millions more people (who don’t earn a lot in the first place and aren’t net contributors).

Proponents of immigration in this country are economically and fiscally illiterate.

Yep agree with you.

Exactly. I never ceased to be amazed by the mathematical lackwits who think the solution to a major demographic shift towards an older population is to import large numbers of young people. Even if they were all net contributors, young people get old. You are just pouring petrol on the demographic fire, and guess what? In 20-30 years time it will be even worse.

That suits politicians of course, who are only looking to make sure that everything smells of roses for the next five years.

The solution to the demographic shift has to be endogenous - anything else is utterly illogical. In fact the solution is numerically really simple. Given that it is caused by a generational shift in life expectancy that won't, and indeed can't, continue ad infinitum, all you have to do is wait for a generation or two and the bubble works itself out of the system.

Will it hurt economically? Absolutely it will, that's why no politician will contemplate it - an utter lack of political cajones. Of course there are things you can do to minimise the pain while it plays out, but that would require insight, courage and above all honesty from our glorious leaders and there's more chance of me winning the lottery 10 weeks in a row than that.

Surely part of the reason that migrants don't earn enough to financially support themselves and their families is that they are the ones who do the poorly paid work that no one else wants to do.
The unpleasant and badly paid work that no one else wants to do is also vital work without which the wheels will not turn and those higher up the pyramid will not be able to earn their large salaries.
The people at the bottom who do the shit jobs are actually supporting those further up the ladder.

A lot of people aren’t having kids because of economic factors , huge childcare costs , impossible for normal earners to get on the housing ladder and precarious employment stability . All these things are what most confided when deciding to have a child .

I think any birth rate decline thread should be read after a AI one, and maybe climate one too.

Our workforce requirements in twenty odd years will be different.

OP, a declining birth rate among the indigenous population is a problem. But the answer is not bringing in millions of people who cannot even support themselves.

Migrants, on average are net takers, not net contributors. They will never earn enough to pay for themselves or their large families. They tend to be more in receipt of social housing also. Then they will grow old and you will need more migrants because, guess what, there isn’t enough people. So you bring in more net takers, and so the cycle continues. The net contributors, on the other hand , having more burden put upon them, are even less likely to have children, as their cost of living rises due to higher taxes. Thats not meant to be inflammatory, it’s just facts.

That’s called a Ponzi scheme. It never ends well.

We are not bringing in people who are growing the economy. In fact immigration is making the country poorer. Again, it’s not controversial, just factual.

Breakdown in family relationships must contribute as well. How many women post on these boards about their husband/partner going off with another woman whilst they're pregnant or post natal? Men can't seem to keep it together. They don't take their responsibilities seriously and can easily walk away whilst the woman is left wondering how she's going to afford housing and food for herself and however many children. Marriage isn't an attractive prospect for men anymore so they just go from one woman to another it seems. They can have it all for minimal effort.

There's no pressure from wider society either. Nobody cares if they up and leave a pregnant partner. It's positively de rigueur now.

It used to be much easier for men to subordinate women, he would automatically be the star of the show and she had no choice but to play a supporting role, bear his children and support him so that he can earn money and if she behaves herself she'll get some of it.
Now that's all changed, men aren't prepared to play the supporting role and women aren't going to give up the opportunity to earn a good wage and have a fulfilling career.

Decent medical care in pregnancy and childbirth and for postnatal issues would be a start.

Is it because you don’t understand it?

Don’t they say that the inception of the birth control pill was the thing that changed everything. People no longer had to get harried early as they could have sex and not fall pregnant. Then post world war two women who had been utilised in the work place didn’t want to go back into the home full time and it became more commonplace for women to work. Then add in declining living standards, an inability to live independently until people are much older, cost of living, Peter Pan mindsets. I think it’s far less to do with migrants and far more to do with younger people not wanting the inconvenience and expense of reproducing.

I agree the housing crisis in my area is shocking with no affordable homes for the young starting out in life and absolutely no chance of a council house anymore unless you are a migrant in my area. Less and less jobs as things become more and more automated, makes you wonder what employment there will be in 20 years time.
The future definitely looks bleak no wonder British people are no longer having children.

Erosion of the social contract in lots of ways. Everything from rampant shoplifting, benefit fraud, rising taxes to pay for ballooning welfare bill, jobs that don't pay even for those on in-work benefits and soaring childcare costs. Every new shop appears to be a money laundering operation which the government quietly condones because they need the huge tax revenues from the rampant criminal enterprises. Meanwhile town centres become no-go zones populated by druggies and those who exude an air of quiet menace.

Weird to tie pro-natalism in with anti-immigrant sentiments.

Most the anti-immigrant sentiment in UK focuses on "irregular" migration, not skilled migrants, btw.

Having Kids is a total PITA !! of course many people choose not to burden their lives with risks of making babies and childcare & don't see children as a legacy they culturally must have. This is a healthy choice for most. Humans also quite rationally choose smaller families if they are optimistic their existing kids will reach adulthood in a healthy state.

Banning contraception, removing/reducing pensions and causing child mortality rates to soar would increase the birth rate, those would be effective to make bigger families. Not that I'm endorsing any of that.... Seems to be localised policy trend in USA, though.

Apologies - I was looking at government statistics, not the ONS ones, which are reported as 22.1 per 1,000 women but didn’t state that was the overall rate, not related to the number of conceptions.

Perhaps that’s a lesson for me not to believe government statistics!

The constant background noise of life is that the planet and country are going to hell in a hand basket, there won't be any jobs in a decade and it's unaffordable to have a good standard of living, especially once you've had children. I think not wanting to have children is a pretty natural response to this.

Where I live they are opening new schools as lots of people are moving here and many new housing estates

i’m not surprised schools in London are losing children it’s insanely expensive.

It's more concentrated in London but definitely widespread.

The abortion thing is true

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/abortion-figures-pregnancy-termination-record-ons-b2785674.html