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What do you think will happen to the state pension in the future?

255 replies

Darkling1 · 09/07/2025 11:29

I’ve heard people say that it may be means tested in the future. I’m in my late 20s and wonder what the state pension will look like years from now.

I’ve recently started to invest a small amount into a SIPP each month. I can’t help but worry about the state pension, especially as the age keeps rising.

I think the age of state pension will continue to rise over time. I can see it being pushed to 75 by the time I’m eligible to claim.

What do you think will happen to it?

OP posts:
Dearg · 10/07/2025 16:16

@taxguru You misunderstand what I mean. I meant to say peg the pension so it never rises higher than personal tax allowance I think we are on the same page here.

And yes of course they would tax the difference. Any pensioner who has income more than their personal allowances has a requirement to pay tax now

The idea that pension triple lock is greater and that it then requires more pensioners to process tax returns and HMRC to administer that with costs involved is just nonsense to me.

taxguru · 10/07/2025 16:08

BIossomtoes · 09/07/2025 22:14

Uneducated 18 year olds on minimum wage aren't paying for anyone, they're still a net taker.

What are they taking? They barely use any services if they’re healthy.

The NHS isn't the only public service. What about infrastructure, security, defence, education, etc??

taxguru · 10/07/2025 16:04

@Dearg

Personally, the idea that triple lock will take state pension above personal allowance also makes no sense to me. I would peg it so that didn’t happen.

Increasing personal allowance across the board isn't affordable.

Giving OAPs a special higher personal allowance isn't politically acceptable.

So the only way for your plan to happen is to scrap the triple lock and peg basic state pension down to the personal allowance.

Or, they could just tax the difference, as they do now for pensions who have enhanced state pensions.

Papyrophile · 10/07/2025 13:13

No sympathy is sought by me @BIossomtoes. I was self-employed so there was no organisation to pay mat leave, sick pay, pensions/benefits or IT support, hence I used several years experience in the financial services sector to work through our options. And the only reason that we're not knee deep in glossy travel brochures is that we can't go anywhere sunny ATM because of skin health issues!

JammyModger · 10/07/2025 09:28

Haven’t read the full thread yet. But I’m in my mid 40s with no significant private pension. I’ve quite frankly stopped worrying about it. It seems to be that the more you save the more you lose.

My parents always told me to make sure I work and pay my NI or I won’t get a state pension. Then in my 30s I discovered that even if you don’t you just get pension credit instead. Which often leaves people better off than those on state pension.

Everyone says you don’t pay towards your state pension. Which I get in theory. But yet they advise you to “buy” any missing years in your NI. I have a few missing years due to uni etc. Like fuck was I buying them (would have cost me about 4k) for them to say in 30 years oh no sorry actually that 4k didn’t mean anything you’re not getting a state pension now.

I have a house. I plan on selling that and downsizing and living off any profit when I retire. But people on here would have that all taxed away as well. But do you know what I actually don’t care. I’ll spend every penny I have then I’ll go on pension credit. I cannot do any more. I have never claimed any benefits. I started work at 16 (with a break for uni in my 20s). I save what I can in my small pension. (I work in self employed health care so no employer contributions or even benefits like holiday or sick pay so I pay for my own insurances for if I’m sick.

I know people who have never worked who aren’t worried about retirement as they’ll just get pension credit B and other benefits. So once I’ve spent all my money I’ll just join them.

Brahumbug · 10/07/2025 09:26

Papyrophile · 09/07/2025 11:52

This is why auto-enrolment was introduced in 2012. Gordon Brown killed the traditional final salary schemes that covered (mostly) skilled people by removing the pension dividend credit in his first budget, and companies responded by moving to DC schemes. Public sector pensions are still fairly generous, but some younger employees -- junior doctors, for example, might welcome pay increases now rather than 25-30% employer pension contributions.

I think the triple lock has to go, but it will still have to remain linked to some measure of inflation or average wage. Despite all the frothing here about wealthy pensioners, our state pension remains among the lowest in Europe, and single or divorced women on the pre-2016 rate are among the poorest people in society. My late DM worked until she was 78 as a mental health carer because if she hadn't, she would have lived hand-to-mouth.

Actually, it was Nigel Lawson who started the death of DB pensions in 1988 as he was concerned that companies were using pension schemes to avoid tax. Tax credit on share dividends wss further reduced by Norman Lamont and only finally abolished by Gordon Brown. He also reduced the amount of advanced corporation tax paid by companies to compensate, but the companies chose not to pass it on to their pension funds. Blaming Gordon Brown is just Tory propaganda.

ViciousCurrentBun · 10/07/2025 09:11

I know 8 early retiree's of 55 to 60 who have left work since covid and taken their workplace pensions, all had good pensions and all have been in long term marriages. We will be some of the last that can do this.

Welfare is paid not just for altruistic reasons though that’s how it’s viewed. It goes way back to when Lloyd George first brought in the state pension and how he was hailed as some sort of Angel on earth. Welfare is actually there just as much to placate the masses.

BIossomtoes · 10/07/2025 09:01

Sorry @Papyrophile but it’s hard to sympathise. You’re just going to have to use that lovely pension for its intended purpose and spend it. If I had a handsome pension pot I’d be knee deep in five star travel brochures.

Summerartwitch · 10/07/2025 08:59

I should be means-tested like the winter fuel allowance.

No point in paying people who have a big enough private pension or buy to lets as an income and/or wealth in general.

I would also reduce the no longer affordable public sector pensions.

Fearfulsaints · 10/07/2025 08:56

I think the performance of private pensions is something people need to understand when they talk about scrapping the state pension.

Lots of middle aged us saw our parents caught up in pension fiasco, or saw parents pushed to retire at a bad time for thier investments so their draw down was much less than anticipated.

Its very hard to accumulate enough to be ok for most of us.

Papyrophile · 10/07/2025 08:46

Sadly, @Noseyoldcow has nailed the history. My pension is doing everything I expected of it when I planned around Gordon Brown's depredations in the early 2000s, and we enrolled our infant child too. The Chancellor's first budget has brought that within the scope of IHT now. I can't decide whether I admire her insight into inter-generational savings planning or resent the fact that she has de-railed my tax-planning nous. A bit of both.

Noseyoldcow · 09/07/2025 23:14

Gordon Brown removed the pension credit dividend, and so killed off a lot of final salary pensions. So, on the basis of property being a good investment, a lot of people put their money into property and became “accidental landlords” thus triggering rampant property inflation for first time buyer/easily lettable homes. Which fed on into the cost of property as a whole. Now everyone is screwed there because first time buyers can’t get on the ladder, so second time buyers etc can’t move on, and the returns from being a small time landlord aren’t there any more either.

Today most pensions depend upon how investments perform. As evidenced by the endowment mortgage fiasco, investments may go up, but they may also go down too. Which left many with endowment mortgages unable to pay the principal at the end of their mortgage, as their investment had not performed as well as had been envisaged. This could easily happen to pensions too. Added to that, even though we have auto enrolment, many people simply are not putting enough money aside in their pension. When it comes to food on the table today, many just can’t afford to put money aside in pensions at all, and some opt out. Combined with the fact that due to demographics and the government’s penchant for spending money we haven’t got on god knows what, the country simply cannot afford the triple lock on state pensions.

So…….in essence you won’t get a decent state pension, and nor should you expect a decent private pension either. I’m old, my generation did alright thanks, but my kids and their kids are screwed good and proper. Plan for poverty, because that’s what you will likely get.

BIossomtoes · 09/07/2025 22:14

Uneducated 18 year olds on minimum wage aren't paying for anyone, they're still a net taker.

What are they taking? They barely use any services if they’re healthy.

EggnogNoggin · 09/07/2025 22:08

How many are working full time or on a good wage? Uneducated 18 year olds on minimum wage aren't paying for anyone, they're still a net taker.

And it goes back to part of why pensions were brought in to begin with: to get older people out of the workforce and make space for younger people.

If 65+ year olds, at the peak of their career in a desk job, with decades of experience and who know its discrimination (tribunal) to sack them, they're hardly going to give it up for manual care work or low pensions. Not when they can flog their houses and holiday and go into rental. Council are bankrupt, they can't afford millions of court cases for deprivation of assets.

So how do the youth get those jobs and pay meaningful tax if there are elderly job-blockers?

Turmerictolly · 09/07/2025 21:05

jaws33 · 09/07/2025 17:33

We have already asked young people to pay more for education, accept stagnant wages, high housing costs, pay more tax (frozen tax bands), have no or fewer dc, have less generous private pensions & now no state pension. Well you can but we need them and they will just go elsewhere.

I feel so sorry for my dc and other young people. There will be a huge divide between the haves (those who will inherit huge sums to buy property, pay into private pensions ) and the have nots. I can’t wait for my dc to get their EU passports and seek a better life and prospects outside of the Uk.

EilonwyWithRedGoldHair · 09/07/2025 20:11

Shakeoffyourchains · 09/07/2025 14:07

Best case scenario is that it'll go back to only being awarded a few years before the average life expectancy e.g, if life expectancy is 80, state pension awarded at 75. Worst case scenario is it just won't exist.

As usual those of us under 40 will be thrown under the bus to protect today's pensioners. Holding older generations to account for their generation poor choices just won't do, don't you know?

But what's the answer to that? What could we do to the current older generation to make them accountable today that won't leave them starving and freezing with the inevitable costs to the NHS.

Papyrophile · 09/07/2025 20:01

Politicians are fresh out of easy appealing alternatives! There's nothing to spare for bribing the electorate and the sensible members of both main parties understand that. Some think the "rich" should pay more; some believe the under-employed should work harder and Nigel Farage just lies.

jaws33 · 09/07/2025 19:54

@Papyrophile I understand that but I would expect a rival party to offer an alternative & it depends on what age cut off they use. And I don't believe all pensioners would vote to screw over their dc & gc!

Papyrophile · 09/07/2025 19:37

Pensioners turn out to vote in elections in much higher percentages than younger generations @jaws33 so their views carry weight among politicians. No party that wants to win an election can afford to piss them off. And as there are so many pensioners... no party is going to threaten the grey voters.

Seymour5 · 09/07/2025 19:36

CaptainSevenofNine · 09/07/2025 17:09

And yet you read all the time about people who don’t have the 35 qualifying years and therefore get a lower pension.

Maybe they will do something like tie amount of pension to amount of qualifying years? So someone with 50 qualifying years will get a higher pension than someone with 25 qualifying years.

I didn’t have enough qualifying years for a full state pension. There were no credits for being a SAHM back in the day. I get just over £100 a week, instead of approximately £175, the basic rate for older, pre 2016, retirees. Younger retirees, with full contributions, pick up around £220 a week. I have an occupational pension, which puts me over the limit, by a small amount, for Pension Credit. If I hadn’t started saving for a pension in my 30s, the state would have picked up the tab! Neither DH or I were high earners, but I worked in the public sector so I joined the scheme.

www.gov.uk/state-pension/how-much-you-get

Younger generations have had far more pension awarenuss thrust upon them!

jaws33 · 09/07/2025 19:16

You have the patience to sit on MNs all day though!

BIossomtoes · 09/07/2025 19:15

jaws33 · 09/07/2025 19:13

Because it would be electoral suicide

I don't see why it wouldn't be for any age group.

I don’t have the patience to explain it to you, maybe someone else has.

jaws33 · 09/07/2025 19:15

Because many of those private pensions will be too small to keep those pensioners out of poverty. So benefits would be required. Although there’s a change now with auto enrolment, it barely affected current pensioners.

Upcoming generations of pensioners will statistically be poorer as more of them will be renting.

jaws33 · 09/07/2025 19:13

Because it would be electoral suicide

I don't see why it wouldn't be for any age group.

Dearg · 09/07/2025 19:13

I think 70% of pensioners now have private pensions so why not cut it now?

Because many of those private pensions will be too small to keep those pensioners out of poverty. So benefits would be required. Although there’s a change now with auto enrolment, it barely affected current pensioners.

The suggestion that it be means tested, though unpopular, makes more sense.

Personally, the idea that triple lock will take state pension above personal allowance also makes no sense to me. I would peg it so that didn’t happen.