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AIBU The global fertility crisis is the biggest crisis humanity has ever faced?

542 replies

plantsdieinmyhouse · 22/06/2025 17:14

We’re in a ‘global fertility crisis’.

I’m astounded that global (even UK/European) fertility decline to below the replacement rate of 2.1 (thought to have happened now) isn’t in the forefront of most people’s radar. There are barely even any politicians acknowledging it let alone devising policies to tackle it.

Thee are even people who still think we’re in the 70s/80s/90s and ‘overpopulation’ is still an issue.

Once everyone who’s alone now is dead the human race will be in terminal decline.

Nothing else matters if there’s none of us left!

Even on a personal level a large proportion of women don’t have the number of DCs they expect to.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/43a9bd63-25c9-4941-bc99-fc9f7e42c12a?shareToken=29bf27cb9dafe9af7a006bc25355e411

We’re in a ‘global fertility crisis’. Does this woman have a solution?

Countries across the world are fretting about falling birthrates. Now one academic believes she’s discovered the cause – and has a plan to address it

https://www.thetimes.com/article/43a9bd63-25c9-4941-bc99-fc9f7e42c12a?shareToken=29bf27cb9dafe9af7a006bc25355e411

OP posts:
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pumicepumy · 23/06/2025 15:36

I believe that in the future there will be a lot more AI, maybe UBI and less need for everyone to work like they do today.

I get so confused by these points. Who is going to give the AI tech free? Tech billionaires tend to be billionaires for a reason & where does the money to fund UNI come from?

InAFewYearsTime · 23/06/2025 15:04

BoldGreenDreamer · 22/06/2025 23:24

There's no ebb and flow, current trends are unprecedented.

And, again, the issue is not raw population numbers but the demographics of an aging population.

E.g. - say there's a country with a total population of 20m, of which 16m are working age and supporting 4m retirees. The total population then halves, to 10m over time.

If that 10m compromises 8m working age and 2m retirees, then you still have 4 working age people supporting every 1 retiree.

If, though, you end up with 5m working age and 5m retirees, then its a 1:1 ratio. Either retirees have to receive dramatically less support, or each individual working age person has to do more to support them.

Actual numbers aside, that's the core issue - not that the population is declining but what it looks like demographically, and what that means for people's economic security.

And we're not talking about a "one off" shift, birth rates are continuing to fall but life expectancy is not seeing such a dramatic change, meaning the demographic shift has become (and is expected to continue to get) worse with each passing generation.

If there are solutions available, nobody seems willing to think about them, so towards the tipping point for societal collapse we go...

I think you're assuming the current system of work and taxes will continue unchanged. I believe that in the future there will be a lot more AI, maybe UBI and less need for everyone to work like they do today.
I am sure there are scientists and billionaire tech people working on ideas that we aren't privy to.
It will be a different world that maybe we can't imagine right now. Less people would give everyone more space and in my opinion is preferable to the population getting any bigger.
As for looking after the elderly, in my experience even where there are three or four children, it tends to be one or maybe two of them who step up to help.

TheOriginalEmu · 23/06/2025 14:02

Cull the old people. Sorted. 🤷🏼‍♀️

iamnotalemon · 23/06/2025 13:51

I’m not having children just to ‘save the population’

chaosmaker · 23/06/2025 13:40

Hasn't anyone on this thread watched 'Humans'

OonaStubbs · 23/06/2025 13:23

There will probably be robot children before too long.

pumicepumy · 23/06/2025 12:11

It will fund itself by eventually being far cheaper than employing humans.

But who are the tech companies that are going to provide it cheaply?

user7529706387 · 23/06/2025 11:55

pumicepumy · 23/06/2025 11:08

Yep there are other concerns such as getting tax or if we’ll be too redundant but due to AI now is a good time to reduce the population.

Who is going to fund all this AI?

It will fund itself by eventually being far cheaper than employing humans.
In our industry, robotics are there, but very expensive. Give it 10 years and itll be perfected, more available and affordable. It’ll be able to work 24 hrs a day and won’t complain about working weekends - the human workforce just won’t be needed in the same way. For us, I’d imagine it’ll probably be one human overseeing 5 robots doing the jobs of 10 people. This is the next Industrial Revolution for sure.

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 23/06/2025 11:37

For every 2 children born in UK another is wanted. Recent UN report found that couples wanted more children than they had -and cited economic and social barriers.

It's people making choices yes but with considereable constraints about how free those choices are.

I also keep reading that it will be fine because once baby boomers die off population goes back to normal - fertilty rate of less than 2.1 means every generation after is smaller than one before - and there always been about 20% of women - fairly consistent- who don't want/have kids - so remaining 80% have fewer and fewer means every generation is smaller than last - so population pryramids remain inverted and that becomes the normal.

Some consquences every later and later retirment ages less government help once do - though bigger voting blocks may cause opposite - more immigration if we can find immigrants as everywhere but sub saharan africa is seeing declines.

I image we'll adapt - Japan and Italy are ahead of the curve so we can watch what they do - but at some point you need to population to come back up again.

If house prices decline that could help - higher prices act as depressors on fertlity. I think some people assume this but it ignores the social aspect - once one child become the norm it's very hard to change that - as China finding out.

Population does need to decline but it need to slump and not be a cliff edge - so we have time to adapt. Though TBH we've had decades in UK and always kicked it further down the road.

plantsdieinmyhouse · 23/06/2025 11:17

Low birth rates effect all of society eg security https://www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/publication/commentary/pdf/commentary351e.pdf

and the economy in general https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2024/04/10/the-socioeconomics-of-japanese-birth-decline/

the rest of the world will become japan and thats not good!

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/confronting-low-fertility-rates-and-population-decline

tye lack of innovation is difficult to measure but means we won’t have the tech/engineering advances we’ve been used to since the industrial revolution

OP posts:
pumicepumy · 23/06/2025 11:13

Haven't they just said we can't afford the assisted dying bill in practice?

OonaStubbs · 23/06/2025 11:10

I don't think it's a bad thing at all. Women have so many opportunities nowadays, it's not all about having babies and then waiting for our children to have babies so you can be a grandmother.

pumicepumy · 23/06/2025 11:08

Yep there are other concerns such as getting tax or if we’ll be too redundant but due to AI now is a good time to reduce the population.

Who is going to fund all this AI?

pumicepumy · 23/06/2025 11:06

my thinking is once the population has reduced to a certain level, people will feel happier (as more housing, more space etc) feel more inclined to have more babies

When we have upside down demographics there is going to be more unrest & suffering. Not just in our country but globally countries will be competing for resources.

EasternStandard · 23/06/2025 10:53

CantStopMoving · 23/06/2025 10:31

my thinking is once the population has reduced to a certain level, people will feel happier (as more housing, more space etc) feel more inclined to have more babies. I don’t think the decline will happen forever. This is just a natural correction. The natural world is pretty good at finding a balance (absence of an unnatural force forcing extinction)

Edited

Same. Just get down to where people can live with less fighting and be happier.

mysecretshame · 23/06/2025 10:46

ThePhantomoftheEcobubbleOpera · 23/06/2025 10:39

People at the end of the world complaining that their neighbours are playing loud music after 10pm 😁

Edited

I mean, in fairness, that would be annoying!

TallulahBetty · 23/06/2025 10:41

Good. It needs to be in decline.

WoollyHeadedMammoth · 23/06/2025 10:40

YABU.

The global birth rate has (unsteadily) declined for humans, but due to changes in technology the global population rate is still rising. And anyway, other species exist so it's not like the world will be depopulated.

ThePhantomoftheEcobubbleOpera · 23/06/2025 10:39

mysecretshame · 23/06/2025 10:38

I'd love to see a dystopian film starring Mumnsetters.
"We're all going to die - we need you to save the Earth!"

"Nah, it was time for us to go anyway."

People at the end of the world complaining that their neighbours are playing loud music after 10pm 😁

mysecretshame · 23/06/2025 10:38

I'd love to see a dystopian film starring Mumnsetters.
"We're all going to die - we need you to save the Earth!"

"Nah, it was time for us to go anyway."

ThePhantomoftheEcobubbleOpera · 23/06/2025 10:37

CantStopMoving · 23/06/2025 10:31

my thinking is once the population has reduced to a certain level, people will feel happier (as more housing, more space etc) feel more inclined to have more babies. I don’t think the decline will happen forever. This is just a natural correction. The natural world is pretty good at finding a balance (absence of an unnatural force forcing extinction)

Edited

I don't think so. The tfr in New Zealand is on a par with ours but their population density is less than a tenth of our own.

Perhapsanothertime · 23/06/2025 10:33

We are finite. We won’t be here forever, we’re just another tiny part of the universe’s endless cycle. We’re nothing, we just think we’re important.

Regardless of whether we decline into extinction or not, we will become extinct in the not too distant future one way or another. It is just a cycle. We won’t be missed, but we’ve left quite a mess for the next lifecycle to clear up!

CantStopMoving · 23/06/2025 10:31

EasternStandard · 23/06/2025 10:28

Yep there are other concerns such as getting tax or if we’ll be too redundant but due to AI now is a good time to reduce the population.

Reduce naturally as seems to be happening, and not wipe ourselves out.

my thinking is once the population has reduced to a certain level, people will feel happier (as more housing, more space etc) feel more inclined to have more babies. I don’t think the decline will happen forever. This is just a natural correction. The natural world is pretty good at finding a balance (absence of an unnatural force forcing extinction)

ThePhantomoftheEcobubbleOpera · 23/06/2025 10:28

And almost 32% of births in 2023 were to non native mothers and so, I think, hides the sterilising effect that our own culture is engendering

EasternStandard · 23/06/2025 10:28

CantStopMoving · 23/06/2025 09:54

Well that is going to happen isn’t it? So many jobs will go the way of AI so there will be a natural switch to reduction in jobs so the required workforce will be smaller and the jobs available will be more manual. In a way the reduction in population occurring now is happening at exactly the right time as what will happen otherwise when there are too many people and too few jobs?

take for example in my office. The finance department 25 years ago had 20 people in it. There are now 4.

Edited

Yep there are other concerns such as getting tax or if we’ll be too redundant but due to AI now is a good time to reduce the population.

Reduce naturally as seems to be happening, and not wipe ourselves out.

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