To secretly speculate about my friends' future divorces

I was commenting on why people didn’t come to our wedding because they decided we wouldn’t make it. It’s relevant to the post and the reason they gave for not coming. Not sure why you’re quite so offended.

Relationships are funny things though. I know for certain lots of people thought myself and DH wouldn’t last when we met and announced a pregnancy within six months of meeting each other as we are very different people. However twenty years on, it is surprising to realise how many of the couples at our wedding have split over the years, including both his brothers, one of his groomsmen and both our mothers while we are still going strong and seen to have seen them all off. Some splits seem inevitable while others come as a complete shock.

Yeah I do that.

Only been proved wrong once but they definitely should have divorced years ago.

Basically she wont leave the lifestyle and he doesnt want to lose what he would in a divorce. So he has affairs right left and centre, slags her off for being a lazy entitled alcoholic (in fairness, she is) and plays nice for their (now adult) kids.

She slags him off for cheating (again, in fairness....he really is), refuses to work despite no reason to not work and sort of plays nice for the kids until she gets pissed again and goes on a drunken rant about what an arsehole he is.

I think that they are both waiting for the other one to die.

ETA realise that that looks like it is all on her but it isnt. He was/is also a workaholic and hands off father who wanted the childfree life despite agreeing to have 2 kids...

I would disagree with this actually. I know you were just being snide but it’s interesting to consider.

Sometimes it takes really good relationship skills to recognise that you’ve grown apart or whatever and getting divorced is actually a super-healthy idea. I can think of people who have done this that I would gladly listen to relationship advice from. And some others who are still married who I wouldn’t.

(not married or divorced myself but in a multi-decade relationship)

And the groups that don't tend to marry and hence the DR goes up are skewed to lower income or already divorced or those have children prior to marriage. The women who make up the cohort are exactly the women who need the legal protection of marriage the most as they sacrifice any financial development for child rearing and are vulnerable to relationship breakdown. Yet they have been sold a pup of 'it's only a bit of paper' or it '50 percent chance it will fail anyway'. You can add in the demonising of marriage as an institution and the hostility from the media portraying married people as boring and conservative and continually being told there is someone better that meets all 1003 of your non negotiatables out there, and low income women have been well and truly screwed over, again.

I definitely bet they’ve had those conversations too, and if they’ve thought of us as being potential divorcees, that’s fine! I’m not precious about it 🤣 it’s harmless chit chat.

Are you single by any chance?

That's the reality unless you are in certain specific socioeconomic groups. Nobody understands how they experience this when we are told 1 in 2 marriages fail. But they don't.

They probably think the same about you and your boyfriend 😂

Yeah I do this too! My friendship group and my boyfriends combined has about 12 couples, and we’ve definitely found ourselves discussing who we predict will go the distance and who won’t. Just between me and my boyfriend that is, would obviously never tell another couple I imagine them to get divorced one day!

It’s funny but now you’ve made me come to think of it all of our old friends, school mum /dad friends and five siblings plus dhs/dws are still together - bar one couple.

thats about 30 couples and only one divorce. Pretty good going I reckon!

The stats aren't high. It's a miss reading of stats that people quote to predict marriage failure. The lowest number of people got divorced for 50 years in 2022. It's that a significant number of people are not getting married anymore that increases the DR. That's the real social change, not people giving up on marriage.

Are you married @flossydog?

@flossydog are you single by any chance? You seem bitter.

No, even though the stats are so high none of my close friends have divorced yet, after 15 to 20 years married. Kids are now going off to uni so this might be the time it kicks off!

It’s been over 20 years. Stop talking about your ex.

The biggest factor to whether you stay married is if your parents stayed positively married, then your peer group, socioeconomic status and education. There are significant risk factors like early age, family role model, and cross culture and status marriages along with age gaps. Any marriage can overcome any of these, but they are the main risks.
The biggest risk is marrying a dick head.
What's your criteria for the predictive methodology, OP?

I don’t make a habit of this but I do have a friend with perpetually terrible taste in men. First husband was a mean old bully and the second one seems no better. Though to be fair this friend is hardly a saint and I don’t think has ever been faithful in any relationship. The latest husband might actually be her match, but not in a good way.

I have no doubt that some of our friends would have me and DH down as likely to divorce 🤣

You’re divorced though. So hardly anyone to take relationship advice from.

That’s us!

To all the married people who do this, it may be you next. I wouldn’t be so smug 👀

Interesting. I don’t do this!

But out of all my friends only about 4 have divorced and they’re all more childhood friends /aquaintances from my hometown/school.

None of my uni friends have and they all got engaged or married in their 20s and are now close to 40. They all genuinely seem very happy and I love that for them.