That "research" is from an anti migrant think-tank run by a Reform activist. In practice, police don't record migrant status of offenders in that way; they record nationality which is a different thing. Also, the research has been rebutted - this, as I'm sure you will scornfully see, is from the Guardian last month.
Are foreign nationals responsible for 40% of sexual crime in London?
Conservative Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said on Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday that 40% of sexual crimes in London last year were committed by foreign nationals.
The claim was sourced from the Centre for Migration Control (CMC), a thinktank and blog that describes its purpose as “controlling and reducing migration to Britain”. It is run by the Reform UK activist Robert Bates.
CMC’s claims come from the Metropolitan police’s response to a freedom of information request. The Met issued a breakdown of the number of people who had been proceeded against – ie brought before a court – for sexual offences by nationality. This does not mean they have been found guilty of committing the offence as Jenrick said. For example, there were 14,242 defendants brought to court for sexual offences at magistrates courts in England and Wales in 2024, but 8,098 convictions, according to Ministry of Justice statistics.
“Some of the data we’re seeing is very striking,” Jenrick also said. “Afghans and Eritrean nationals are 20 times more likely to be convicted of a sexual crime than a British national.” The statistic about Afghans has been repeated by Reform UK’s chair, Zia Yusuf.
This is a muddled figure that also came from the CMC, after it submitted freedom of information requests to the MoJ. It is based on population statistics from 2021 but data on offences covering the years between 2021 and 2023. That means the statistic is likely to be based on a significant underestimate of the number of Afghan and Eritrean nationals in the UK – meaning the comparison with British rates is unlikely to be 20 times as high. Immigration to the UK from Afghanistan has risen significantly since 2021 because of the Taliban’s return to power, while Eritrean migration has also risen due to wars in Eritrea, Sudan and Ethiopia.
The Guardian contacted Jenrick for comment.