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AIBU?

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Sounds mad but it’s true, honest! If you have 3 kids…

429 replies

Nunaluna · 07/05/2025 20:00

Same dad, no miscarriages to ‘break the chain’, if the first 2 are opposite sex, the third will be whatever number 2 was - so BGG, or GBB. Not BGB, or GBG.

It sounds crazy but it’s something I noticed ages ago - every time somebody announces they’re having a third, and they have one of each, I know it will be the same as the second child.

Prove me wrong, Mumsnetters!

OP posts:
KhakiOrca · 07/05/2025 21:17

BGG here

Viniagrette · 07/05/2025 21:16

How could this possibly work? What's the mechanism?

Do the sperm heading towards the unfertilised egg, somehow know, based on their sex chromosomes and the sex of previous/existing children, to quit?

Does the mother's body in some way reject the inappropriately sexed sperm, though morphologically I believe female and male sexed sperm are incredibly similar? How would it be possible to discriminate in this way against some sperm and not others?

Or is there some kind of effect causing die off of inappropriately sexed sperm in the father-to-be's balls? Are his balls able to tell the sex of existing children, and not only that, but remember the order in which they were born?

What would be the reproductive value in any of these proposed mechanisms? I'm curious as to what selection pressure could be at work that would overcome the disadvantage of inactivating 50% of potential sperm?

Are you perhaps suggesting that there is an increased propensity to early spontaneous abortion of inappropriately sexed embryos for some reason, relating to the birth order and sex of existing children?

If any of this were plausible, how could the same dad have anything to do with it? You're suggesting that the sperm and/or female environment possess some kind of knowledge of / are influenced by not only the sex and birth order of existing children but their parentage as well?

What are the confidence intervals of your prediction and are the number of families you are aware of with 3 children (your sample size) great enough to attribute the results of your observation to a genuine effect rather than chance? I rather doubt this.

For the record, I have BGB.

longtompot · 07/05/2025 21:16

GBG here

blubbyblub · 07/05/2025 21:15

Nunaluna · 07/05/2025 20:12

It’s just something I’ve noticed - every time somebody with a boy and a girl announces they’re expecting number 3 I think ‘oh yeah that’ll be a boy/girl’ depending on what number 2 was, and sure enough I always seem to be right!

But lots of people on here have disputed your theory. So it’s a bit of a failed theory

wingingit1987 · 07/05/2025 21:15

I have 5, soon to be 6.
mine are BBGGGB

MsCactus · 07/05/2025 21:14

Nope - my mum had BGB

Eenameenadeeka · 07/05/2025 21:14

We had BGB

CoffeeChocolateWine · 07/05/2025 21:13

True for me...BGG!

My parents also had GBB (and then G)

Of my good friends who have 3 (and first 2 were one of each) it's BGG, BGG, GBB, GBB (then G), BGG and BGB (although not sure about miscarriages) so your theory pretty much stands up!

ClassicalQueen · 07/05/2025 21:13

Sorry I just reread this. I do also know BGB families though!

HollyBerryz · 07/05/2025 21:13

I have g b g

PiggyPlumPie · 07/05/2025 21:12

Nope, GBG here!

ClassicalQueen · 07/05/2025 21:12

I know a few people who have either BBG or GGB.

Nunaluna · 07/05/2025 21:12

Tavimama · 07/05/2025 20:39

Nope. I was the oldest, then my sister, then our brother, so: GGB

The first 2 have to be opposite sex

Gah I should’ve known better than to post a thread and expect people to read the OP!

OP posts:
KarmaKameelion · 07/05/2025 21:12

Oh wait! George Charlotte Louis 😂

EilishMcCandlish · 07/05/2025 21:11

I am the G in a BGB, so no.

KarmaKameelion · 07/05/2025 21:10

Huh - that is true for virtually everyone I know with three kids. The only one I know different had ivf

Nunaluna · 07/05/2025 21:10

AnxiousOCDMum · 07/05/2025 21:07

edited as I clearly didn’t read the message 😂😂

Edited

That’s not what I said though. I said where the first 2 are opposite sex

OP posts:
AthWat · 07/05/2025 21:09

Go on then, gather the data - you'll want at least thousands of cases to even start, not "my auntie and my cousin". If the data shows you are right, then you are right.

GeorgianaM · 07/05/2025 21:09

I’m one of four - GBGG
My stepchildren - GBG
I only have two children - BG
Eldest sister has BBG
Brother has - BGG
Youngeat sister has - BG
Husbands brother - BBB

Nunaluna · 07/05/2025 21:09

SocktopusEatsSocks · 07/05/2025 21:00

Look up how to make a probability tree OP!
For this calculation we’re going to assume a 50/50 chance of having a boy in each pregnancy.
In families with three kids :
In 50% of families, the first child will be a boy, In the other 50%, a girl.
When the second child is born, the combos look like this :
25% BB, 25% BG, 25% GB, 25% GG
When the third child is born, the probabilities look like this:
12.5% BBB, 12.5% BBG, 12.5% BGB, 12.5% BGG, 12,5% GBB, 12.5% GBG, 12,5% GGB, 12.5% GGG.
So the likelihood of a 3 child family having the combo BGG or GBB is exactly the same as the likelihood of a 3 child family having either the combo BGB or GBG.
But if you include the BBG and GGB combos then yes, you’re twice as likely to have two the same sex in age a order than either BGB or GBG. Maybe that’s why you feel like BGB or GBG is a less frequent combo?
You also have a 1/8 chance of having all boys and a 1/8 chance of having all girls or a 1/4 chance of having 3 of the same sex (either all boys or all girls).

I think you might’ve got it there! You win mystery hour this evening! ⭐️

OP posts:
PinkPinkPinkBlue · 07/05/2025 21:08

GBG here

SardinesOnGingerbread · 07/05/2025 21:08

Nope BGB

Etaerio · 07/05/2025 21:07

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?q=www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/031344v3.full.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjd_9OTk5KNAxWLSvEDHVWFJs0QFnoECAUQAg&usg=AOvVaw0l4q-Hstor4Jw99RnrjQbcThis" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">paper This paper provides an interesting discussion on evidence of correlations in sex of births within families.

AnxiousOCDMum · 07/05/2025 21:07

edited as I clearly didn’t read the message 😂😂

XelaM · 07/05/2025 21:07

One of my daughter's closest friends is the middle child (girl) and has two brothers either side of her, so again - your theory is not true