To ask what will happen to primary schools now?

London here. Our local primaries are very oversubscribed, I think last distance offered is between 0.3 and 0.6.

@Mayflyoff This is happening already and will continue too. However, triple working staff is not sustainable in the long run. Workload is already a hot topic.

There may also be a knock on in terms of specialist provision or leadership time. Things like dropping the specialist music teacher who was brought in when classes were full, so there wasa bit more money about. Or dropping SENDCo down a few days a week and putting the deputy head or head into class teaching more. These can seem like good ways to balance a budget, but inevitably there's a loss of something.

Primary schools are closing in my area (south). I read that we’ve got something like 2000 surplus primary school places

The LA were looking to close 5 primary schools and 2 closures have been approved so far - there were legal issues with closing the other 3 so I’m sure they’ll look to close different ones before long

More money and teachers available as not spread so thinly?

If only that were the case!

The budget is based on how many children you get through the door, so fewer children means less money. Less money means fewer teachers. Falling rolls generally mean mixed classes or teacher redundancies

My son goes to a special needs school and, for reasons not very clear, we now share our Headteacher with another special needs school 50 minutes away! Under a different council. No idea why. Both of these schools have long waiting lists

Also live in a major town rather than rural area. Population of nearly half a million.

We have several schools a whole class below pan. My DC's has filled 69 out of 90 places.

A lot of our local primaries are looking to see if they can open specialist resource hubs within their schools.

My school is reducing from a two form to one form entry. Teacher recruitment is very difficult so this will help. We'll also gain some space which will be welcome.

I'm in Greater Manchester and am an admissions officer for an LA it's the same in non rural areas and even on very large towns and cities across the area and same in West Yorkshire. All are areas of high pupil mobility with a lot of international new arrivals coming into the area but even then the classes are under their PAN in about 20% of schools I'd say

Quite a number of schools with spare classrooms in at least 3 LAs I know of are now being used as satellite sites for Special Schools. Others, especially those in older less accessible buildings are going to be having to make some difficult decisions in the next three years. The hardest hit are some of the Catholic schools who were faced with falling rolls in the early 2000s until Eastern Europe immigration massively boosted the numbers wanting Catholic education. There's still a fair number of African new arrivals especially Nigeria who want these schools but not like it was 10 years ago.

Schools get funding on a per child basis, with the expectation of classes of thirty. Small class sizes is just a big financial burden that most schools can’t afford - your child being in a year group of 18 sounds lovely when they’re a needy reception child, it looks different when they’re in key stage 2 with tiny peer group, there’s no money for anything, trips are extortionate and rare because the cost is split between few and probably it ends up with mixed year group classes.

I am on supply in South London and go into lots of schools. It is rare to find a class of 30. Most classes have between 20 and 25 pupils and no TA or a shared one - they were the first to go as intake shrank. I also see lots of schools with mixed year group classes and empty class rooms as year groups and classes have been merged. There have also been school closures and mergers. When staff leave, they are not replaced.

Look at Hackney and Islington they tried to lower PAN but it isn't enough 10+ schools closed and others still at risk. It is a nightmare and very stressful for staff and children.

Our school just reduced its PAN from 1.5 classes per year to just 1. Even then the reception class isn’t full for September.

To do that funding would have to increase massively! They can't cope with the pittance they have now!

And yet small village schools still survive, DD has recently applied for a teaching post where the total school role is less than 20

Reduce the class sizes? They are stupidly enormous where we live anyway... seems like a good thing to me!

In our area, we’ve already had one state school (that was always over subscribed) go from 3 form entry to 2, one prep school go co-ed from being single sex and another prep close (the prep that has closed always picked up applications from parents disappointed with their state allocation, but this year nearly everyone in our town got their first choice).

My LA is asking around for schools that have spare classrooms to turn them into SEND bases or units. It will be interesting to see if more of that happens.

Population is falling in predominantly White British areas. Population rate is what, currently 1.4 babies born to White British mothers, but population is rising due to immigration.

I’d say population of our town is at least 95% white British.

It’s going to double in the next ten years with new build developments. Houses won’t be cheap so I’m presuming the current population rate will be similar regardless to birth country origin.

We’re at a rural primary with declining numbers. They’ve started to mix classes. There’s another tiny school not far away that’s got even less - they’re talking about closing it

Everyone shuffles around. Our small rural village primary of 86 students usually has a reception class of about 12. Last year they took in 23. Some rural schools are thriving.

Some of the London decline is specific to inner London I think, because once wfh or hybrid working was established, it accelerated the normal move out of London which has happened for generations, when families get older.

They shrink. Merge classes, and have fewer staff.

In our local area only 1 primary/infant school was oversubscribed for the 2025 intake. All of the rest have spaces. The school my daughter goes to for years was a "you have to live in catchment and go to church for years" to get a place. They have 18 places available in September for a 3 form intake. It will be real issues on finances as 72 is too many for 2 classes but not really financially viable to have to fund 3 classes.

I do wonder if they will move to a 2 form intake and reduce PAN to 60 from next year. It is the best state school in the area so it is very surprising.