AIBU to ask what you think should happen with Trans men?

No, actually. It does look like that, but I just did some digging. A more robust dataset is the GP Patient Survey, which estimates that between 0.65% and 0.76% of England and Wales' population is trans. That would give us, at the upper end, a total trans population of 395,200. We have no idea of the split between trans men and trans women because the only effort to find out was a really bad question in a census, but it's split pretty evenly in America - there's 3% difference between trans women and trans men over there, with slightly more trans women. So if we assume slightly more than half of that trans-identifying population identify as women, that would give us about 209,000 trans women.

Taking that back to your prison chart, 92 prisoners for sexual offences out of population of 209,000 would give us a 440 trans women perpetrators per million figure. I can't remember what the smoking gun chart had to say in terms of the per million figure for men, but if we base it on 15,000 male convicts (see below for maths), it gives us 460 men per million. About the same, not more.

But that assumes that every trans woman and every man are arrested, prosecuted and convicted for their crimes. We don't have the figures for trans women because the data aren't reported accurately or consistently. There's more information out there for men.

Only around 3% of reported rapes in the UK result in prosecution.

Around 64% of that 3% result in conviction and imprisonment.

There are currently around 15,665 people in prison for sexual offences, and nearly all are men - let's assume 15,000, for a round number.

Not all of those men are in for rape — some will be for other sexual offences.

Let’s conservatively assume 30% of sexual offence prisoners are in for rape.

30% of 15,000 = 4,500 rapists in prison.

64% of rape prosecutions result in conviction - 4500/0.64 gives us 7,031 prosecutions.

3% of rapes lead to prosecution - 7,031/0.03 gives us 234,367 rapes in the UK, against a prison population of 4,500 rapists.

We need to take into account the fact that the vast majority of rapes go unreported. Only about 16 - 18% of women report their rapes. If only 16% report it, that means there are actually 1.4m rapes a year, against our 4,500 prison population. If 18% report, there's 1.1m rapes, against 4,500 prisoners.

Most rapists are multiple offenders. If we assume 2 or 3 rapes per offender, which the figures we have in the UK can reinforce, that's somewhere between 470,000 and 585,000 rapists in the UK, against a population of 4,500 male rapists in prison.

False accusations of rape haven't been factored in and probs should have been, but this is fag packet stuff. It should be noted that the lower estimate of individual male rapists is greater than the total number of estimated trans women in the UK.

And it's just rape. Not all sexual assault. I could run the numbers for that if you like but honestly - without reflecting the wider story around each data point used in the chart, it's junk. Selective use of data to over-emphasise the risk trans women present, and under-emphasis the risk that men present.

Thanks for making me run this exercise. It's reminded me who the real threat to women is.

It’s not one attack. There are hundreds of cases. And here is one study of statistics:

“MtF transitioners were over 6 times more likely to be convicted of an offence than female comparators and 18 times more likely to be convicted of a violent offence.
The study provides strong evidence that policy makers cannot safely assume (a) that transwomen’s offending patterns, including violent offending, will be significantly different than those of the general male population or (b) that they will be similar to those of the general female population.”

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/18973/pdf/

Who has been monitoring changing rooms and where is the evidence?

How do we know that no one is being harmed? How do we know how women feel? Has anyone actually done any research on this?

Not forgetting either that men coming into women's spaces isn't all that common yet but it may become more and more common. It's easy when there's little data and little backstory of a new situation in society to say "well the data doesn't support this theory".

We all know deep down that men in women's changing rooms is wrong, however they identify.

What about if I identify as a child now so I'm allowed to back to school and change in the kids changing rooms?

What if a man were to do that? Do we just open up every changing room everywhere and say anyone can go anywhere?

Why have we bothered to date to have changing rooms at all, if everything was just fine and there was never a problem???

Exactly. Talk about bad actors. They are on this thread. Pretending to be the reasonable face of TRA and trying to normalise ‘cis’.

Oh God not this again. We ALL have trans friends, I work in media, I have friends from every group you could imagine.

But that doesn’t mean I’m going to give away all my rights to transwomen, does it?

I haven't changed my stance at all. There IS no statistical evidence to support transwomen being a risk to women in spaces like changing rooms and toilets.

They pose a greater risk to women than the general male poplulation proven by the MOJ crime figures.

It doesn't really matter where they're committing those offences, does it?

I don't have the source to hand but crimes of voyeurism are more prevalent in mixed sex spaces generally (eg communal swimming pool changing rooms). So it just makes sense to keep all men out of women's spaces however they identify.

I’ve explained how increases are calculated.

Unfortunately crimes by transwomen are recorded as by women, so your statistics are no good to us. You seem fine with that though, eh?

This is the problem though.

Many of us have known transpeople over the years. And many of us have known them to be decent people.

But the reality is that your colleague should never have been in the female toilets in the first place. (I'm less concerned about TM using men's toilets for all the reasons previously stated and, if men don't like it - well that's their battle to fight tbh!)

Your colleague might not have been out threatening women in the streets but he was more than happy to reap the benefits provided by those who did knowing that he was male and knowing that many women didn't want him there.

There have been many TW who have never used women's toilets out of respect for women.

And, yes, we have all known that we have used toilets alongside trans identifying men over the years without issue but aggressive TRAs have spoilt it for everyone (including people like.your colleague). And, unfortunately, very few of them stood up.to he counted against it.

There is no debate anymore and for the right reasons not for the TRA reasons. The heat will die down. The new guidance will be issued by the summer. Hopefully organisations will move to be more genuinely trans inclusive rather than expecting women to shut up and move over. Unfortunately, that is what Stonewall et al could and should have been campaigning for all along. That is the normal and acceptance society should have been striving for. But the movement became overrun with fetishists, misogynists and men with an unhealthy interest in tampons and showing 10 year old girls how to insert them and there have been many victims of those men along the way.

All the trans rhetoric around 'existence' needs to die down too. They do exist. But they haven't changed sex. That is all.

Exactly, because men's comfort and wants will always come first

Ah the old ‘my lovely TW male friend has been using women’s toilets without giving any thought to whether women wanted them there or understanding that because they’re male, theyre not going to get challenged because women are generally very wary of upsetting men’ arguments

97% of all reported rapes including those by men with a trans identity.
Do believe that transwomen are prosecuted and convicted at a higher rate than other men?
You can try and twist the facts all you like but you can't change them. Men who claim to have a trans identity are more likely to be sexual predators than the average male, the question that should be asked is why that is, is it because sexually predatory men have realised that falsely claiming a trans identity will get them easier access to women and girls plus an easier time in jail on the trans wings (my personal belief) or are they just more dangerous than the average male(unlikely)?
Hopefully now that all males are now going to be excluded from all women's single sex spaces and that all access pass for anyone who claims to be trans has been revoked we will see fewer cases of prison onset gender dismorphia

What do you mean by ‘literally no evidence’?

If you have followed this issue at all you will have seen selfies of transwomen in women’s toilets, often posted with crowing messages, sometimes visibility aroused or even exposed.

You can debate risk all you like, but that is literal evidence that this happens.

You can’t have missed a US member of congress doing this recently. It was across the news.

If you haven’t followed this issue at all, then I’m not sure what you are doing telling others that their views are ill informed.

Ok Chuck.

Prove not live

Yes why do we have to live a ‘threat’ to say I don’t want men in places I feel vulnerable?

can’t we just say that?

I mean men kill us, rape us, abuse us, cat call and harass us for just being out in public but even if you dispute that why is it not enough for women to just say NO

Ok so say there isn't a threat( which I don't believe) then can't it just be enough that women feel uncomfortable with men in their spaces. Can't it just be enough that we simply don't want men in our women's toilets,changing rooms and so on Instead of the onus being on women to prove that trans women ( men) are a danger

According to your figures, 92 of the 98% are.

But ok.

Actually, it's not 98% of men is it. We should be accurate. It's 98% of RAPES.

Women’s toilets to be used by women only, men’s changed to universal.

I was referring to the policing of language. You can't police mine, a trans person can't police yours.

But well done for trying, pet.

And your understanding of the Supreme Court ruling is flawed. The ruling introduces a legal framework that permits, but does not require, the exclusion of trans women from female spaces.

TW can no longer access a space advertised as being for women only.

If a space is open to women and TW, then it can be advertised as such.

Eg my friend sent me a link to a women's festival a few years ago. The advertising was all come along for a man free weekend, no men here! Just lots of lovely women doing lots of lovely womanly things! Bring your friends along because - no men!

In the small print at the bottom, it said it was open to all self identifying women (which, I felt actually excluded me as I am a woman - I don't identify as one and, at that point I wasn't sure if it was actually an event specifically aimed at TW!) Anyway, my friend and I didn't go because we weren't sure.

In future, someone could hold a similar event but, if it were advertised as an all women/no men event, it would have to be for biological women only. There would be nothing to stop someone organising an event for women and TW. They just couldn't call it 'women only'.

RADAR NKS is a national scheme, used by the majority of accessible toilets across the country. The organisation that started them (Royal Association for Disability and Rehab) is now Disability Rights UK. You wouldn't notice it unless you use the toilet and need the key, it just looks like a lock and big chunky key (rather than a Yale type key).

As I've said, I 100% support the ruling (though not many people's interpretation of it) and I sincerely hope that it brings to an end every bit of nonsense you highlight here. It's disgusting.

I'm not a trans activist. I do believe there are bad actors, I also believe that in a well-meaning attempt to protect what IS a vulnerable population, the pendulum swung way too far and women's rights were trampled on.

But I also have a very good trans man friend, and I've worked with a trans woman for years. They're not bad actors, they just want to be able to pee in the same toilets they've peed in for the last 20+ years, and live a dignified life without being footballs in a culture war. I really don't think it's impossible to balance my rights as a woman with theirs - but if we don't take the heat out of the 'debate' and come out of our trenches, I really do fear for their safety and mental health.

No one can make you use pronouns you don't want to

cis is not a pronoun by the way - it's an adjective

Trans identified men are part of the 98% of men committing sexual assault

So are you saying there are fewer than 48,000 transwomen?