Tariffs: Why Is It Fine When Others Use Them, But Not the US?

Can the us rebuild its manufacturing base ?

I’m not sure anyone will take on China if US doesn’t reorder things.

Also not sure what they’re planning with the military kit that looks high end and some of it likely under wraps.

It's pretty obvious now that this was all just an opportunity for some insider trading. Short some stocks, crash the market, buy stock on the cheap and revive the market.

It depends on what Trumps ultimate goals are.

We assume it's about doing best for America and it's people. Except that's not how Trump has ever operated. It's always been about what's best for Trump.

He has a shed load of debt. That's affected by interest rates. By driving the interest rates down he's writing off his debt and he still will have purchasing power. Indeed he will have moved because he will be less laden with debt. The value of things within America will go down because he can off shore in other currencies and because lots of people further down the chain will go pop.

This works for obligarchs. It enables them to get richer and the rest of the population to get poorer. It's an enslaving mechanism to remove power from the American people. It's how disaster capitalism works. It also will allow America businesses to move in and buy up everything in places like Lesotho. Or effectively all but take them over. Their currencies will be devalued too, thus meaning that the cost of goods to Americans may not go up as much as people think. Because it's those at the bottom of the chain who pay the price most. It will be in the form of starvation. Where this falls down is in how it's likely to drive more wars too. But hey who are the worlds weapons manufacturers?

We are seeing China trying to do similar to this to an extent with it's belt and road initiative - extend influence with loans and the insistence of using Chinese companies as conditions for the loan for infrastructure. This move is going to make it much more difficult for China to continue to do this - because it will be trying to prop up its own economy instead. Instead it gives the US the opportunity to move away from an aid model to an ownership model where the US has control of overseas assets and to extend influence in a way more similar to the belt and road approach. This is where talking about Greenland also makes a lot of sense.

Trump is an ultra capitalist. He thinks of everything in terms of owning it. That's how he sees American futures. It's a different type of American Colonialism and exploitation of non Americans. One that doesn't value the lives of people living elsewhere. The bonus is that in decimating African economies he'll drive African migration to Europe which will destabilise Europe politically in his favour too.

He could literally back down on everything tomorrow with this now and he, personally will still win, because trust in America has gone and the stability and safety of the American market has gone due to his recklessness.

Yes it might wreck the US economy in some ways. But it also gives enormous opportunities in others for the super rich.

If you see all of this through the lens of how it benefits the super rich it makes sense. Trump has no interest in the lives and experiences of normal people. He has no capacity to comprehend them as he's so removed from that experience.

Far from being a losing situation for the US, it has the potential to work the other way for obligarchs. Its closer to the model that Putin used when he took over Russia. It led to a huge rise in criminality in Russia and a decline in living standards but Putin is still there. It is easy to see how the US could go the same way and how Trump could aspire to that. Putin, despite this, retains a huge popular following because he trades on nationalism and traditionalism. This again works for Trump in the context of the US and the Christian Right and ideas of nationalism particularly in red states.

It's really messed up.

Trumps trade mark is to do one thing, double down reverse and the deny he ever did to the contrary. He holds two opposing positions at the same time in this way - allowing his supporters to always take the line they line and deny the other. And it gives little room for the opposition to have any traction because the truth and the power to observe and recognise the truth is undermined and destroyed. This there can be no accountability.

So I don't assume that Trump will follow through. He doesn't necessarily need to. He just needs to break the existing system and exploit the cracks that emerge. And to hell with those who fall through those cracks. Trump regards them as losers - he refers to them as losers. They are worthless to him. Why should he care? Humans are just another resource to be exploited.

I’m sure that’s one of his aims, but I’m not convinced it won’t backfire on him and the USA.

I see the Orange Manbaby has backtracked again.

My feeling is that his goal (or that of his administration) is specifically to try and reduce the power of China.

Partly by reducing US reliance on Chinese goods. But I also suspect that they don't see Europe as serious allies. They are looking to Russia, and probably also India, to counter Chinese power. Faced with those two options, which way would Europe jump?

Yeah OP, I think people are really weird and inconsistent about this. Whether or not the tariffs are a good idea or make economic sense for the US, as a thing in themselves they are a legitimate economic tool. A nation is not evil because they want to promote and protect their own industry, it's their job to look out for their own economy.

Of course other countries may not be happy to lose a market, and that's fine too, but the way it's being presented as somehow evil is very weird.

What's even weirder is that many other countries and trading blocks use these kinds of rules to protect industry or give special advantages to only certain other countries. But even those who live in those places don't seem to think it's a problem when they do it.

And the third weird thing is that 20 years ago, free trade was being pushed by the right, people like Thatcher and Reagan. The left opposed it as exploitative to workers. They now seem to have totally forgot about that.

As for Trump - FWIW I don't think what he says about the tariffs has much to do with the reasons they are pushing them - I don't think it has much to do with calculating trade deficits or anything like that. I think it's about reducing the value of the American dollar and reducing the influence of global suppliers of goods on the US. WHether or not it will work, who knows.

Most of his supporters don't actually realize that tariffs are a tax paid by importers of foreign goods (and passed on to consumers). He's persistently lied to them on that, and right wing media doesn't usually push back. Only 14% of Fox (or other conservative media viewers) actually know what tariffs are...

The US right wing propaganda machine (and it's successfulness) is absolutely nuts.

I genuinely often feel quite sorry for his supporters, they know not what the do.

It depends.

If you have a shit load of personal debt on property then destabilising the market to drive interest rates down, has it's benefits.

Does Trump have his wealth tied up in stocks and shares or real estate?

@Buttonsbuttons yes he has been talking about tariffs for a long time and so yes it is arguable that he is doing what he said he would.

But his supporters don't seem to actually have thought through what that would mean.

And most rational people expected targeted tariffs, based on actual numbers and used in a way that would help his own people not make their lives harder. Thats what most people dont understand.

Tariffs need to be targeted to achieve anything.

So if you want to protect a particular industry within your own country then you put tariffs on similar goods from other countries.

But there's not a country in the world that can produce everything. Either the climate is not right or they don't have the natural resources. So for example the UK placing tariffs on bananas just makes the price of bananas increase for UK citizens. So while he wants to increase US manufacturing, this will take years to put into place and in the meantime his citizens will have a HCOL due to all the tariffs.

The indiscriminate use of tariffs that Trump is using just makes other countries reluctant to trade with the US because there is no logic to it. The fact that he is using false figures and making comments like Australia won't accept US beef because of protectionism rather than because the US does not comply with Australian biosecurity regulations is also a concern. He also is only basing his figures on goods trading. The US exports a lot of services, not so much goods.

He also hasn't taken into account that other countries also want to protect their industries and will launch reciprocal tariffs.

So he's now paused the tariffs on most countries, just like he did with Canada and Mexico. All this dithering will continue hurting business confidence.

Turns out we didn’t need all the chap manufacturing jobs after all.

Hope nobody was looking forward to their new low paid manufacturing job.

And Trump has put the tariffs on hold.
Except for China

Well Trump banned collective bargaining in many federal work places so I can’t see him protecting unions in any way.

America is at almost full employment.

There is no huge army of long term unemployed to take these factory jobs that could be available in a few years after the new factories are built.
Though of course all the scientists and other very skilled government workers that DOGE is firing could probably start making jeans for minimum wage.

Of course you need certainty to allow people to invest otherwise why build a factory in the US when the tariffs against Vietnam might be gone next month, or in two years

And then there is the huge loss of skills and potential for innovation that will happen due to the cuts in research funding at universities and in federal agencies. So all the high end good jobs will be wherever the real research is happening.

Skilled work in a unionised workplace will pay better than working in many service roles. Not that Republicans are friends of the unions. Or the working classes in general for that matter.

Yes, and talking of child labour, the US isn't exactly moving in the right direction, tariffs or not: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article303763526.html

I don’t think that this idea that millions will leave long term unemployment and get jobs in these new factories that still need to be built is not taking account of the fact that whilst factories abroad rely on very cheap labour, once you add up the labour bill and other costs for a US factory, it will either be cheaper to use automated machines rather than people to make a product. Or just carry on importing the product and the cost of the tariff passed on to the US consumer

I came on here to say that i don't have much to add to the debate on tariffs, but that I am quite sure that Trump is an absolute stark raving madman intent on crashing the world. His latest comments about world leaders queueing up to kiss his ass is one of the grimmest things I've ever heard a world leader say, and there has been some pretty stiff competition over the years. He is treating everyone else with utter disdain, and we've all become so dependent upon the US that all we can do is watch in horror as the car crash unfolds.

The only bright side is that even Russia is beginning to speak out against him. It won't be long before Golden Shower Gate puts an end to him.

Sure, but certainly not these tariffs.

I am not commenting on or defending Trump or US policy.
I'm just explaining why tariffs can be a good thing.

Well then why isn't the focus in the US on improving wages for those in poorly paid service jobs instead of pretending that these incoming manufacturing jobs that have up till now been done by sweatshop labour and possibly children are going to be any better?

Either manufacturing or service jobs can have good wages or bad wages.

Factory work can be a good wage, that is the point. Unions help.