Is war likely?

What a bizarre back and forth – I didn’t say anywhere in my post that I’m anxious, simply that I would consider moving elsewhere if things continued to escalate – which neither you nor I have any way of predicting with any certainty. I’ve lived all over and have ties outside of Europe.

Your posts are quite clearly motivated by rudeness, not concern.

What an arrogant, unpleasant person you are.

Maybe..we might, potentially heading for the sort of situation that existed in the seventies/early to mid 80s in Europe with the concept of MAD not gone, not failed, but lurking in the background as a back up to loads of boots on the ground ( at the time US, British Army on the Rhine and others) in those days lined up facing the Inner German Border….

I think there’s a strong possibility of a race war. And not necessarily from the ‘far’ right. That’s the thing - it used to be that only far right groups were unhappy about immigration, but now a lot of centre right in politics are increasingly unhappy, and that’s reflected across Europe. Might not happen within the next 10 years, but I can see something happening.

Its not rude or gross to suggest someone get help when making such an extreme decision on something that is unlikely to happen. If you want to move country that's fine go for it but if you want to move due to being anxious about something that most likely won't happen then that's not a normal healthy reaction

apart from anything else the UK is particularly vulnerable given that tories sold off all our important stuff and we own practically nothing. Any foreign power that owns any of it could just stop providing it and that's without the mess that our food is in. We provide very little of our own and import lots of it - some from the other side of the world which is very very stupid imo
Trade should only be done for things we need and not political ends

I think there's a sense that proxy wars can work within MAD but the danger of expansion of war is that its back in play

I don't know it does all feel so bleak but it has felt bleak previously. In a weird way it's almost as if the MAD theory is starting to fail because we've all realised no one will actually ever push the button, so it's back to boots on the ground.

Yes, but I think escalation will be in ~5 years and not immediate, and initially will be confined to Eastern Europe.

The film "Leave the World Behind", and the series "Zero Day" are of course heavily fictionalised, but do give glimpses into what might constitute war in countries where all out destruction is economically undesirable, but where infrastructure is vulnerable due to dependence on technology. Another series that is eye opening is "The Capture".

Our viewing tastes are very similar @MistressoftheDarkSide.

Ahh bless you. Are you not so sure as your user name suggests. 😂

Why so rude?

I’m self-employed thanks and have lived all over. For lots of people spending time in a different country is nbd. Although if you actually read my post I just said it’s something I would consider if things did go that way.

Pretty gross to be randomly approaching people online and suggest they have mental health issues for a bit of cheap snark.

During his first term, Trump made it very clear that he was sick to death of NATO countries not investing enough in their own militaries. Especially when they would very happily avail themselves of America's properly funded military power.

So, it's unsurprising that just weeks into his second term, Trump has created a scenario where NATO countries are now hurrying to build up their armed forces (at long last).

There was never any chance that Trump would allow American soldier boots on Ukrainian soil. But instead he will put thousands of Americans, living & working, in Ukraine to facilitate/protect his new rare minerals mining areas.

American contractors & civilians are far less contentious than American soldiers. They are far cheaper than America can soldiers to maintain (and infact will be earning America money). But they are just as effective as a deterrent to Putin as American soldiers.

I just think if where going to fight it should be for something important like bringing back the sausage egg and cheese mcdonalds bagel. Now that's a fight worth fighting 💪 🥯 😋

Maybe they should have thought of that

Yes he is. But the OP just said war for the UK

I'm not sure there's much point prepping beyond just a fairly tame 'water & power off for several days' situation. If anything more extreme than that happened then armed gangs would very quickly take control of the cities, with raiding parties going out in vehicles to loot systematically from houses after all the shops and public buildings had been looted. There would also be individuals in every locality who are desperate and very comfortable with violence and weapons. So people who were well prepped would quickly be robbed/killed. Most Brits are naturally peaceful and unused to violence and wouldn't be able to withstand the sheer level of brutality of the gangs. Its possible the police and army could suppress gangs and riots in the cities but I have my doubts, they'd certainly be outnumbered in London where many hundreds of thousands are from countries and backgrounds where survival via violence is normalised.

@sparrowflewdown

I was wondering, given the confidence of your assertion

This.

No point worrying too much about "traditional" boots on the ground warfare or invasion, because the concept of war has changed.

The film "Leave the World Behind", and the series "Zero Day" are of course heavily fictionalised, but do give glimpses into what might constitute war in countries where all out destruction is economically undesirable, but where infrastructure is vulnerable due to dependence on technology. Another series that is eye opening is "The Capture".

Economic warfare is happening all the time, and cyber attack is going on in the background all the time.

Whenever there's a significant outage that affects a service, eg. When Three went down fir over 12 hours, we're told it's just a technical glitch, yet it could be something more sinister, but we'll never know because we have to be kept calm and carry on.

Not alot we plebs can do about it except keep half an eye on things, and do some now deemed sensible mild prepping. And having three days of supplies etc has been deemed officially sensible in recent times by several European governments, and our own.

My mantra is very much hope for the best, but be somewhat prepared for the worst.

Yes. At some point Europe will need to stop Russia. The sooner we do this in Ukraine where the Russian army is bogged down, the better. If Ukraine falls, we lose a massive army, and open the door to Moldova and Romania being invaded too.

Turkey should be brought into the alliance too. No time like the present.

Try Russia. It's up and coming.

War has always been likely at any stage of human history. Just pick up a random number between -4000 and 2025 and I can almost guarantee that there were a few wars taking place somewhere in the world.

The nature of the next war is what is really a mystery. The threat of nuclear annihilation is there so war will come in very bizarre and not traditional form. It will be not so much by employing weaponry but economic and social aggression with a good dose of cyber attacks and terrorism galore.

Why?

Out of interest, are you male or female?