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Konstantin Kristin's take on the Zelensky /Trump press conference

359 replies

BusyExpert · 01/03/2025 17:10

Konstantin Kristin who is much more knowledgable about events in Ukraine has posted this on his substack. I repeat it here to see if has any effect on the uninformed hysteria being spouted.He explains far better than I could why Zelensky blew it. His ego got in the way and he failed to put it his country before his own ego which was not, as has been the norm from world leaders, been massaged.

Kristin says
"Before we address the in the Oval Office yesterday, a bunch of disclaimers are sadly necessary. Such are the times we live in.
If you are unfamiliar with my work, when Vladimir Putin’s troops invaded Ukraine in 2022, I went on one of the in Britain to express my shame for what Russia was doing and to call on our leaders to support Volodymyr Zelensky in defence of his country. In the weeks that followed, I gave interview after interview and participated in endless debates about our involvement in Ukraine. On TRIGGERnometry, we raised the best part of $100,000 in two hours for Ukrainian charities. My wife and I have sent supplies, clothing and our own money to friends, family and strangers in Ukraine to help them deal with the brutality of war and Russia’s deliberate targeting of Ukraine’s energy systems. Only last week, I described Trump’s labelling of Zelensky as a “dictator” as “absurd”. I can hardly be accused of being a Putin shill. Indeed, my feelings on the subject are so strong that when I saw a short clip of JD Vance and Donald Trump lambasting Volodymyr Zelensky in front of TV cameras last night, like most people, I assumed that this was yet another example of President Trump strong-arming Ukraine into accepting a rushed and unfavourable ceasefire with Russia. To my embarrassment, I tweeted as much.

Having complained only last week of journalists clipping my words out of context, I fell victim to the same trick myself. When I later watched the full 50-minute press conference, it became clear that President Trump had actually done his best to do a deal, and that it was President Zelensky who scuppered it through an ill-advised spat with JD Vance. This gave the Vice President justification to unleash a barrage of anti-Ukraine MAGA talking points he had clearly been waiting to deploy. As if this wasn’t enough, Zelensky then proceeded to mutter an insult under his breath, interrupt and argue with Trump himself, which led to the deal offer being withdrawn and Zelensky being sent to his room without his supper.

So, why did this happen and how can peace be salvaged? To understand why Zelensky acted the way he did, you have to consider the reality he has been operating in:

For the last 3 years, he has led his country in a heroic defence against a brutal and barbaric invasion. He saw innocent Ukrainian civilians being slaughtered, tortured and raped. He watched missiles and drones rain down on his towns and cities. He welcomed Ukrainian POWs on their return from Russian prisons and torture camps, only to discover they were emaciated, bruised and broken. He has spoken with Ukrainian parents whose childrenhave been stolen and taken to Russia.

During the same time period, he has received in every room he has entered. In Europe, across the political spectrum, Ukraine’s cause is seen as just, righteous and important for our collective safety. Foreign leaders have travelled to Kiev for photo ops with him. He has spoken in every major parliament in the world. Praise and attention have been lavished on him from every direction. At every turn, he has been told “we stand with Ukraine”, “Slava Ukraine” and so on.
This is one of the reasons his negotiating position appears somewhat disconnected from reality. During the press conference he argued that Russia must pay for the war on the basis that in history “whoever starts the war, pays”. What he appears to be missing is that this isn’t remotely true: in history, whoever wins makes the losing side pay. While neither side has defeated the other, Ukraine can hardly claim victory.
For all these reasons, the reality vortex he entered in the Oval Office yesterday would have been a shock. The fact is that MAGA, the dominant force in the world’s leading nation, does not share the European view of President Zelensky. You may agree or disagree, but to the current occupants of the White House, their advisors and their base, President Zelensky - and forgive me for putting this bluntly- is an untrustworthy leader of a corrupt country on the other side of the world who keeps asking for more money America doesn’t have to fight a war they neither care about nor feel he can win. Most of these perceptions stem primarily from domestic American politics and the hatred MAGA has for anyone and anything President Biden touched. Most Americans don’t know where Ukraine is and have no reason to care. To them, this is just another “forever war” like Iraq and Afghanistan.
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In other words, President Zelensky walked into a room in which people who don’t particularly like him, don’t particularly trust him, and don’t particularly care about his “just and righteous cause” were nevertheless prepared to continue giving him money, weapons and political support in order to make this problem go away. All he had to do was look grateful. When you are attempting to convert other people’s good will into hard currency, that is the bare minimum. And for 40 minutes, Zelensky just about managed.

The rationale for the argument he then instigated with JD Vance is not without merit. As I explained in my last video, Zelensky’s primary concern has to be what are known as “security guarantees” - this is a fancy way of saying that Putin is a proven liar who can’t be trusted to stick to any agreement reached. Therefore, the only way to prevent another invasion is through a permanent presence of European or American troops in between Russia and Ukraine. He kept making this point over and over during the press conference and did so diplomatically enough.

But the way he challenged Vance directly in front of the cameras was catastrophically stupid. Sure, if you hate Trump and Vance and think they’re taking part in a Youtube debate, then Zelensky made a valid point. But this was not a debate. They’re all supposed to be on the same side. And the person who has the most to lose from them not feeling like they’re all on the same side is President Zelensky, or, more importantly, his nation. The arguments about security guarantees should have been made with tact, diplomacy, and in private.

To make things worse, he followed this unfortunate error with another, much bigger one. In Europe, Zelensky is used to winning people over to his cause by claiming that Ukraine is all that stands between them and Vladimir Putin. We can argue about whether such claims are true, but the important thing is that in Europe we are much more receptive to this message for both cultural and pragmatic reasons. We are on the same continent as Russia and NATO’s eastern border is now in contact with Russia. This point of contact would have been significantly extended had Ukraine been overrun.

These arguments don’t wash in America and what’s worse, Americans HATE people painting a negative picture of their society’s future. This is why, I believe, President Trump interrupted Zelensky when he claimed that America won’t be protected from Putin by an ocean and shut him down.

None of this is to suggest that Vance or Trump behaved perfectly. But they aren’t the ones asking for more money, weapons, and diplomatic support. Their job is to look generous and find a route to peace. Zelensky’s job is to realise that he stopped being a human being when he became President of a country reliant on foreign aid to survive. He does not have the luxury of righteousness and his country cannot afford to have him lose control of his senses as he did."

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OneLemonDog · 05/03/2025 21:07

MikeRafone · 05/03/2025 05:18

It gave "security assurances", requiring Russia, the US and the UK to respect Ukraine's borders. It did not give "security guarantees" (which would have obligated the US and UK to intervene upon Russia's invasion).

of course it’s not a guarantee, nothing can be in life

its a trilateral agreement including Russia, UK & US

Respectfully, I don't think you understand what you're talking about, regarding the legal difference between security assurance and security guarantees and how they relate to the Budapest Memorandum (or the agreement that preceded it).

I'm no Trumper and I think what the US is doing is despicable, but you are wrong on this.

EasternStandard · 05/03/2025 07:22

MikeRafone · 05/03/2025 05:18

It gave "security assurances", requiring Russia, the US and the UK to respect Ukraine's borders. It did not give "security guarantees" (which would have obligated the US and UK to intervene upon Russia's invasion).

of course it’s not a guarantee, nothing can be in life

its a trilateral agreement including Russia, UK & US

There is a difference. Hence everyone trying to get a guarantee from US now but they are understandably a no.

Purplelodestone · 05/03/2025 05:31

@OneLemonDog "It gave "security assurances", requiring Russia, the US and the UK to respect Ukraine's borders. It did not give "security guarantees" (which would have obligated the US and UK to intervene upon Russia's invasion)."

So, after "going around the houses" for umpteen posts we finally arrive at what I have been saying all along ie that we (UK, USA) are not duty-bound to help Ukraine. We are doing so as it is politically expedient and there are security concerns if we don't..

IMO We dropped a blooper when we let Putin annexe Crimea without a murmur.

MikeRafone · 05/03/2025 05:18

It gave "security assurances", requiring Russia, the US and the UK to respect Ukraine's borders. It did not give "security guarantees" (which would have obligated the US and UK to intervene upon Russia's invasion).

of course it’s not a guarantee, nothing can be in life

its a trilateral agreement including Russia, UK & US

OneLemonDog · 04/03/2025 23:36

MikeRafone · 04/03/2025 21:41

The trilateral agreement was signed in January 1994

did you read the link?

The Trilateral Statement was basically the groundwork to the (more detailed) Budapest Memorandum. It is not a separate agreement.

It gave "security assurances", requiring Russia, the US and the UK to respect Ukraine's borders. It did not give "security guarantees" (which would have obligated the US and UK to intervene upon Russia's invasion).

It is, though, one of the various agreements that Russia has broken in the past, so clearly they cannot be relied upon to respect any peace deal unless its with security guarantees.

If Trump and the US were so confident that Putin won't run rough shod over the peace deal, I don't see why they won't give a guarantee tbh.

MikeRafone · 04/03/2025 21:41

The trilateral agreement was signed in January 1994

did you read the link?

Purplelodestone · 04/03/2025 18:06

MikeRafone · 04/03/2025 15:39

There is no requirement for us to come to their aid. I have read the Budapest Agreement (That's half an hour of my life I won't get back) and all it says it that they should respect each others geographical integrity.
If anyone can inform me where it says, in that document, we are obliged to aid them militarily, please tell me.

its in the trilateral agreement singed in January 1994 https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trilateral-process-the-united-states-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons/

The trilateral discussions accelerated in December, producing the Trilateral Statement and accompanying annex, signed by Kravchuk, Yelstin and U.S. President Bill Clinton in Moscow on January 14, 1994. Those documents provided that Ukraine would transfer all strategic warheads on its territory to Russia for elimination and, in return, would receive security assurances, compensation for the commercial value of the HEU, and Nunn-Lugar assistance to help with the disposal of ICBMs, ICBM silos, bombers and other infrastructure on Ukrainian territory. Perhaps as importantly but less tangibly, the Trilateral Statement removed what would have been a major impediment to Ukraine’s development of normal relations with the United States and the West.

So it's not in the Budapest Agreement ?

Or are we talking about the same thing here that has 2 different names ?

The Budapest Agreement was apparently signed in 5 Dec 1994.

I'm confused.

MushMonster · 04/03/2025 17:52

Ukraine is paying a gruesome price for wanting to be closer to the rest of Europe and leave the USSR times behind.
JD Vance says that UK and France troops proposal to send troops to Ukraine is the action of a random country who has not fought a war in 30 or 40 years.
Now, is that not disrespectful to us? Because UK and France have fought alongside US.
Now, we are not of Trump style and while we can condemn that statement, we are not going to through a glove, wage a war or remove support from our allies because of that.

MikeRafone · 04/03/2025 15:39

There is no requirement for us to come to their aid. I have read the Budapest Agreement (That's half an hour of my life I won't get back) and all it says it that they should respect each others geographical integrity.
If anyone can inform me where it says, in that document, we are obliged to aid them militarily, please tell me.

its in the trilateral agreement singed in January 1994 https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trilateral-process-the-united-states-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons/

The trilateral discussions accelerated in December, producing the Trilateral Statement and accompanying annex, signed by Kravchuk, Yelstin and U.S. President Bill Clinton in Moscow on January 14, 1994. Those documents provided that Ukraine would transfer all strategic warheads on its territory to Russia for elimination and, in return, would receive security assurances, compensation for the commercial value of the HEU, and Nunn-Lugar assistance to help with the disposal of ICBMs, ICBM silos, bombers and other infrastructure on Ukrainian territory. Perhaps as importantly but less tangibly, the Trilateral Statement removed what would have been a major impediment to Ukraine’s development of normal relations with the United States and the West.

The Trilateral Process: The United States, Ukraine, Russia and Nuclear Weapons

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal on its territory. When Ukrainian-Russian negotiations on removing these weapons from Ukraine appeared to break down in September 1993, the U.S. government en...

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trilateral-process-the-united-states-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons/

Purplelodestone · 04/03/2025 15:08

@BoldRed "but that was implied."

Where??

Implying something does not make it binding.
Any solicitor will tell you that a contract isn't valid unless there is some kind of enforceable penalty detailed, that can be enacted should one party break the deal.

However, it seems all the parties got what they wanted at the time.

Ukraine handed over the nukes for Russia for destruction and was compensated for the value of the components - as Ukraine was strapped for cash this was very welcome.
Later in 1993, the Ukrainian and Russian governments signed a series of bilateral agreements giving up Ukrainian claims to the nuclear weapons and the Black Sea Fleet, in return for $2.5 billion of gas and oil debt cancellation and future supplies of fuel for its nuclear power reactors

Russia got the nukes back for repurposing.

USA got rid of a threat aimed at it.

I'm not sure what UK got out of it.

EasternStandard · 04/03/2025 13:57

I always wondered why they agreed to that nuclear deal, interesting posts on it.

BoldRed · 04/03/2025 11:35

Purplelodestone · 04/03/2025 08:21

@CautiousLurker01" I usually agree with KK on most things but in this I don’t. Ukraine used to have significant nuclear capability and would have been able to fend off an incursion from Russia on this basis. The US, UK etc brokers a deal in which we asked them to give up their nukes in exchange for us coming in to their aid - in recognition that giving them up made them vulnerable. We did eff all when Russia moved in on the Crimea, which was Putin testing the waters, failing in our commitment to protect them. We are honour bound to protect them - or give them back their nuclear arms."

This is incorrect - see my response at 12.53

There is no requirement for us to come to their aid. I have read the Budapest Agreement (That's half an hour of my life I won't get back) and all it says it that they should respect each others geographical integrity.
If anyone can inform me where it says, in that document, we are obliged to aid them militarily, please tell me.

The reasons that Ukraine gave up their nukes is complex but I'll try and summarise it -

The nukes were never Ukraine's in the fist place, they were left there by the USSR after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991
Pressure from both western countries and Russia was enormous. The missiles were pointing at USA so most of the pressure, understandably, came from them.
The country was in deep economical crisis. Money in exchange for useless nukes sounded like a great idea.
The whole idea of war with neighbors was absolutely unrealistic. A need for nuclear weapons in case of alien invasion was considered more probable than a war with Russia.
All nuclear equipment was considered taboo after the Chernobyl accident. There was strong public opinion against nuclear weapons and nuclear energy.
Nuclear weapons needs maintenance. Despite of having uranium ore deposits, Ukraine had neither the resources nor skilled people for that. All nuclear refinement and enrichment facilities were located in the Urals and Siberia.(Still part of Russia)
Ukrainian authorities at that time were mostly pro-Russian ex-communists and never pursued the interests of Ukraine.
Nuclear launch codes were controlled by Russia and there was no realistic scenario to obtain them. There was an option to rebuild control circuit completely, but there were neither resources nor political will for it.

Ukraine were promised independence. Which they have got.
And membership of NATO which is pending.

HTH

Edited

They were Ukraine’s nukes. Ukraine was part of the USSR (which is not short for Russia). Obviously Ukraine did not think there was zero threat from Russia otherwise the agreement would not have included specific promises to respect Ukrainian independence and borders. It’s a political agreement not a treaty hence the inability to force other nations to come to its aid, but that was implied. One result of all this is that no nation will ever feel safe in giving up its nukes ever again, making the world far less safe for us and our children.

cardibach · 04/03/2025 11:32

I won’t be watching anything which starts from the premise that Zelenskyy made a mistake in the Oval Office. I watched it with my own eyes. Anything suggesting he was in the wrong is biased misinformation. The good thing about internet info is that it is much harder to tell people something happened when it didn’t because they can see for themselves. Or it should be. Sone seem to be ignoring the evidence of their own eyes in favour of lies.

Purplelodestone · 04/03/2025 08:21

@CautiousLurker01" I usually agree with KK on most things but in this I don’t. Ukraine used to have significant nuclear capability and would have been able to fend off an incursion from Russia on this basis. The US, UK etc brokers a deal in which we asked them to give up their nukes in exchange for us coming in to their aid - in recognition that giving them up made them vulnerable. We did eff all when Russia moved in on the Crimea, which was Putin testing the waters, failing in our commitment to protect them. We are honour bound to protect them - or give them back their nuclear arms."

This is incorrect - see my response at 12.53

There is no requirement for us to come to their aid. I have read the Budapest Agreement (That's half an hour of my life I won't get back) and all it says it that they should respect each others geographical integrity.
If anyone can inform me where it says, in that document, we are obliged to aid them militarily, please tell me.

The reasons that Ukraine gave up their nukes is complex but I'll try and summarise it -

The nukes were never Ukraine's in the fist place, they were left there by the USSR after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991
Pressure from both western countries and Russia was enormous. The missiles were pointing at USA so most of the pressure, understandably, came from them.
The country was in deep economical crisis. Money in exchange for useless nukes sounded like a great idea.
The whole idea of war with neighbors was absolutely unrealistic. A need for nuclear weapons in case of alien invasion was considered more probable than a war with Russia.
All nuclear equipment was considered taboo after the Chernobyl accident. There was strong public opinion against nuclear weapons and nuclear energy.
Nuclear weapons needs maintenance. Despite of having uranium ore deposits, Ukraine had neither the resources nor skilled people for that. All nuclear refinement and enrichment facilities were located in the Urals and Siberia.(Still part of Russia)
Ukrainian authorities at that time were mostly pro-Russian ex-communists and never pursued the interests of Ukraine.
Nuclear launch codes were controlled by Russia and there was no realistic scenario to obtain them. There was an option to rebuild control circuit completely, but there were neither resources nor political will for it.

Ukraine were promised independence. Which they have got.
And membership of NATO which is pending.

HTH

EasternStandard · 04/03/2025 08:18

The update on aid is likely to get the deal signed.

Z has been saying yes he'll but then it would be a few more weeks.

MushMonster · 04/03/2025 08:18

They all need money and they will all take their share: make wood of the fallen tree.
Wars are all about money and the power money buys you or the power you want to buy with your money.
This is in the Guardian today.
Definitively, things are not like we knew them before. The re-alignment is happening in front of our eyes.

Konstantin Kristin's take on the Zelensky /Trump press conference
AlisonDonut · 04/03/2025 07:57

This is SO Shakesperian that it's like it is all a play.

A roundabout way of getting Europe back together again.

It's like a 'special relationship' where a couple that wanted to break up needs a couple of friends to orchestrate some sort of drama to get them to reunite.

OneAmberFinch · 04/03/2025 07:41

Really interesting posts @TempestTost thanks for sharing. I agree, the world feels like it is in realignment and some "impossible" scenarios are in play again - not necessarily the most likely or even quite likely, but not out of the question.

I see Trump has withdrawn US aid this morning, until they can come to terms on the minerals deal or some other ceasefire agreement.

Not surprising given the last few days/weeks/months.

I will say something for the US that seems to have survived over the lifetime of the country: they're very good at getting their pound of flesh in return for their military aid. Arguably a fair amount of Britain's economic woes today can be traced back to having to repay America for their WW2 support.

TempestTost · 04/03/2025 01:43

I suppose, just to follow the logic, lets say Trump and Vance have decided that Russia's moral issues are kind of irrelevant on the world stage.

And that the traditional stance of America against Russia no longer has much oomph. After all, they aren't communists any more, they are pretty hyper capitalists in some ways.

The worry the US has had for some time has been around Russia and China and not being able to stand against both, whether they were working together or separately. Economically and militarily.

But what if the US aligned themselves with Russia against China? Trump could see this as mainly some sort of a deal, and Vance, who I think has other interests, might see it in terms of Russia being a Christian nation with real ties to the west - they've always gone through periods of being more western oriented.

If we forget about the historic differences of the US and Russia, it seems plausible.

TempestTost · 04/03/2025 01:30

CautiousLurker01 · 03/03/2025 10:42

I usually agree with KK on most things but in this I don’t. Ukraine used to have significant nuclear capability and would have been able to fend off an incursion from Russia on this basis. The US, UK etc brokers a deal in which we asked them to give up their nukes in exchange for us coming in to their aid - in recognition that giving them up made them vulnerable. We did eff all when Russia moved in on the Crimea, which was Putin testing the waters, failing in our commitment to protect them. We are honour bound to protect them - or give them back their nuclear arms. Given a choice, I’d support them rather than revert to the time of the nuclear arms race.

As with most things in the world - the US/UK are part of the backstory that lead to this. I agree it seems appalling that we should have to send money and potentially troops to fight in this war, but the government considered this risk (and knew it was a risk) when they brokered the deal for Ukraine to denuclearise… but its our government’s fault (specifically the Tories/John Major/Douglas Hurd who were in power at the time) for signing up to the treaty and making these commitments.

I think morally you are totally correct.

But what we are seeing is a significant realignment of powers, and I don't think agreements like that will stand in the face of that realignment.

The attitude a lot of citizens have seems to be - well, some guys a generation ago signed that, but it's no good for me, so why do I have to live by that? There is a logic there, but the flip side is that if we take that approach the possibility of any international relationships is incredibly compromised. You can't have stable international relations without some kind of continuity.

That, it seems to me, is what Trump is playing with. He seems to have a vision of a US that is largely independent, but if the possibility of reliable international agreements is lost the US will suffer in the end.

Maitri108 · 04/03/2025 01:27

1sttimeforeverything2 · 04/03/2025 01:17

Did you watch the full 40-45 minutes of the meeting?

I did.

TempestTost · 04/03/2025 01:21

mantaraya · 03/03/2025 08:05

English is a race and a heritage, not simply a nationality that you can fill in a form and sign up for

The definition of "English" is simply "relating to or from England". England has been invaded constantly by various types of people throughout history. It has acted as a vast colonial power leading to large levels of immigration and emigration across its borders. The idea that there is one distinct English race (as separate from Scottish, Irish, Australian, American, Canadian etc.) is just patently ridiculous.

If that's true there is no such thing as Indian ethnicity either.

1sttimeforeverything2 · 04/03/2025 01:17

Maitri108 · 03/03/2025 14:03

It's interesting how people interpret the exact same footage differently. Zelensky was purposefully ambushed and humiliated. He wasn't given a chance to answer questions and it was he who was spoken over.

Did you watch the full 40-45 minutes of the meeting?

TempestTost · 04/03/2025 01:16

XWKD · 03/03/2025 06:44

If Zelensky is responsible for starting WWIII, then who is to blame for WWII in Europe? Poland, France or everyone but Nazi Germany I suppose. 🙄

You can't draw direct parallels like this. We don't actually know that Russia's intent is the same as Germany's was in WWII.

If Russia is determined to have a war of that kind it will likely happen. But it isn't clear that they do. They are struggling with just Ukraine with rather lukewarm support with the US and Europe.

But if Zelensky were to scupper, for bad reasons or through carelessness, a possible peace negotiation that could have held, that would be on him (and I am not saying that is what he has done, for the record.)

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