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Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Are we heading into a major recession?

430 replies

bodychanges · 12/02/2025 13:16

Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

OP posts:
SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 13:52

TizerorFizz · 13/02/2025 13:47

@SerendipityJane Lots of landlords have sold up. It’s all well and good not wanting private landlords, but for millions they are the only solution as social housing is a dream. So puss them off even more and have fewer places to rent. Simple economics tells you what will happen then.

Cheaper houses.

TizerorFizz · 13/02/2025 13:47

@SerendipityJane Lots of landlords have sold up. It’s all well and good not wanting private landlords, but for millions they are the only solution as social housing is a dream. So puss them off even more and have fewer places to rent. Simple economics tells you what will happen then.

SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 12:02

BeGoldHedgehog · 13/02/2025 11:08

We need more social housing. Not housing to buy. The housing estates being built are still unaffordable.

Edited

But social housing means depriving private landlords of their income. And as we know that is fundamentally against everything holy.

BeGoldHedgehog · 13/02/2025 11:11

BeGoldHedgehog · 13/02/2025 11:08

We need more social housing. Not housing to buy. The housing estates being built are still unaffordable.

Edited

I saw a really interesting documenty of an investor in Scotland building housing for lifetime tenants. Flats, but only 3 stories up. The premise being you could get a tenancy if you had a full time job.
Get people into work and house them. Seems like a win win.

BeGoldHedgehog · 13/02/2025 11:08

SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 10:28

As long as housing is a commodity, there is no fix. Simple market forces.

More housing means rents and house prices go down. And that cannot happen. It would be the same whoever was in power. As 2010-2024 showed.

We need more social housing. Not housing to buy. The housing estates being built are still unaffordable.

Tryingtokeepgoing · 13/02/2025 11:06

Porcuporpoise · 13/02/2025 09:43

It's just that it's hard to remember the last 14 years under the Tories and then think that Labour are the source of all our troubles. Most people's brains can't manage that sort of mental gymnastics.

Or maybe you're one of the lucky few who did well under the previous government, in which case sorry your snout has been displaced from the trough.

Surely, taking your hyperbolic metaphor forward, the problem with this government is that it has deliberately knocked over the trough...so now no one is better off, and the population as a whole is worse off because the source of food is spoilt until somone rights it and refills it ;)

BanditTheCat · 13/02/2025 10:57

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 10:52

@BanditTheCat

"I'm sorry to hear about redundancies but you need to look at the bigger picture"

That's your response to 20 people losing their jobs! Wow

Sorry if I wasn’t detailed enough for you!

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 10:52

@BanditTheCat

"I'm sorry to hear about redundancies but you need to look at the bigger picture"

That's your response to 20 people losing their jobs! Wow

BanditTheCat · 13/02/2025 10:51

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 10:42

@BanditTheCat your pp doesn't cover the revised forecast for growth

And yes the GDP per capita measure is a recent one

You're not following the indicators but they are there.

What political party do you think would do a better job right now?

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 10:42

@BanditTheCat your pp doesn't cover the revised forecast for growth

And yes the GDP per capita measure is a recent one

You're not following the indicators but they are there.

BanditTheCat · 13/02/2025 10:41

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 10:39

@BanditTheCat you've missed the December CBI press release and S&P report. These are not 'vibes' but actual job losses.

You also missed the halving by BoE forecast of growth from 1.5 to 0.75 also no 'DM vibe'

Also the decline in living standards as @TheNuthatch pp

If you want to 'get real' as stated best to look at economic indicators

See my most recent post. You think a decline in living standards is a result of a government that’s been in power for 6 months? You know that’s not accurate, come on

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 10:41

@Porcuporpoise which sector are you in?

BanditTheCat · 13/02/2025 10:39

Neemie · 13/02/2025 08:15

You sound very smug and privileged. Meanwhile, over 20 people at my work are being made redundant due to increased costs because of Labour budget and fewer customers because of shrinking economy.

But the economy grew, inflation has - as recently reported - decreased, and the UK is forecast to be the fastest growing economy in Europe.

I’m sorry to hear about redundancies but you need to look at the bigger picture, and one of the biggest reasons organisations are making redundancies is they don’t want to reduce their profit. They want to increase profit for their shareholders, rather than earn less profit.

Tjis government are quietly getting on with sorting out 14 years of crap. Remember Dido Harding and the billions she spunked up the wall on the track and trace app that never materialised? Consultants were paid £1000 a day for their work on that. Where did that money go? Michelle Mone and £230mil, just one of the many people who ran riot with taxpayer money. All the while public service cuts. And you think that Labour finally trying to close tax loopholes for big organisations are the bad guys?? Wakey wakey

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 10:39

@BanditTheCat you've missed the December CBI press release and S&P report. These are not 'vibes' but actual job losses.

You also missed the halving by BoE forecast of growth from 1.5 to 0.75 also no 'DM vibe'

Also the decline in living standards as @TheNuthatch pp

If you want to 'get real' as stated best to look at economic indicators

Porcuporpoise · 13/02/2025 10:35

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 10:06

Do you work in the public sector?

No. Do you?

BanditTheCat · 13/02/2025 10:33

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 06:53

I was thinking that about this type of post on every thread from Labour

Do you swerve all news and economic analysis?

I’m actually pretty well read on the news, thanks. Which nation was just forecasted to be the fastest growing economy in Europe again?

can we get real? Every time these posts appear on MN they come with minimal information and sources and are based mainly on vibes. Quoting the Daily Mail, owned by notorious tax dodgers angry at the notion tax the rich, is not a flex.

im not a die hard Labour fan but people need to see these posts for what they are

SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 10:28

BeGoldHedgehog · 13/02/2025 10:13

My point being, we have low productivity and the cause is that a "normal life" has become impossible even for a full time worker. Causes, housing and an aging population. Rachel Reeves has made it worse with NI...just means even lower wages, less jobs.
We need ford economics...more money in the everyday man's pocket. Housing has destroyed the average persons disposable income.
Fix this first!!

As long as housing is a commodity, there is no fix. Simple market forces.

More housing means rents and house prices go down. And that cannot happen. It would be the same whoever was in power. As 2010-2024 showed.

wherearemypastnames · 13/02/2025 10:24

The causes of your problem are housing and the related aging ( because care homes cost )

Yet the solution to raise money to pay for those is unacceptable?

As is every solution except "big business " which are the one supposedly laying off in response to the NI increase

BeGoldHedgehog · 13/02/2025 10:13

My point being, we have low productivity and the cause is that a "normal life" has become impossible even for a full time worker. Causes, housing and an aging population. Rachel Reeves has made it worse with NI...just means even lower wages, less jobs.
We need ford economics...more money in the everyday man's pocket. Housing has destroyed the average persons disposable income.
Fix this first!!

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 10:07

SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 10:05

And yes more growth would be nice, but only if the population as a whole benefit from it.

Indeed. 0.1% across 60 million is better than 500% across 6,000

GDP per head has fallen

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 10:06

Porcuporpoise · 13/02/2025 10:00

Thank you for asking.

My quality of life improved the moment the junior doctors strike ended. I was finally able to have the operation I'd been needing for the past 2 years and am now back at work and actually able to increase my hours to full time as I feel so much better.

I'm also quite excited about the housing promises as the situation here has been desperate for a long time.

And yes more growth would be nice, but only if the population as a whole benefit from it. Growing the profits of big corporations whilst having to top up workers salaries from the public purse just so they can survive doesn't seem that great to me.

Do you work in the public sector?

BeGoldHedgehog · 13/02/2025 10:05

whatawonderfultime · 12/02/2025 16:54

No, pensions are a benefit. But I have no idea what point you're trying to make, if you want to explain.

Pensions are a benefit. Those that don't need it shouldn't get it. End of. They're fine with means testing it in Oz. Its only here all the greedy people want to literally take money from schools, health care etc and pocket it. Unless we have a fundamental shift in attitude and actually give a shit about the young. Nothing will change. They don't want to work for a measly 30k....you can't do shit with that nowadays.

SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 10:05

And yes more growth would be nice, but only if the population as a whole benefit from it.

Indeed. 0.1% across 60 million is better than 500% across 6,000

Porcuporpoise · 13/02/2025 10:00

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 09:50

You sound nice.
Has your life been significantly improved since labour came to power? Please explain.
Unless you're a train driver? Or a bee?

Thank you for asking.

My quality of life improved the moment the junior doctors strike ended. I was finally able to have the operation I'd been needing for the past 2 years and am now back at work and actually able to increase my hours to full time as I feel so much better.

I'm also quite excited about the housing promises as the situation here has been desperate for a long time.

And yes more growth would be nice, but only if the population as a whole benefit from it. Growing the profits of big corporations whilst having to top up workers salaries from the public purse just so they can survive doesn't seem that great to me.

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 09:55

@SerendipityJane hah no answer

Yeh it is pretty shit.

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