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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Are we heading into a major recession?

430 replies

bodychanges · 12/02/2025 13:16

Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

OP posts:
BluLagoon · 12/02/2025 13:42

Huge amount of money printed - and then wasted - over Covid. But really it goes back to 2008 and the poor wage growth we’ve suffered since then. As a country we need to go back to what we’re good at like engineering, and then capitalise on it.

Dotjones · 12/02/2025 13:41

We'll have a period of low growth/recession for the next decade or so definitely. AI will drive a recession in the longer term as people lose their jobs and have no disposable income. The extended period post-2008 crash is about consolidating wealth in the hands of the few. The stupid thing is we allow it to happen.

Octavia64 · 12/02/2025 13:37

Probably not.

But a sustained period of low growth - definitely,

LadyPoison · 12/02/2025 13:34

From my perspective - yes.

Small businesses like mine are being milked by the Govt with no thought or understanding of the consequences. I have abandoned my expansion plans and I'm currently aghast at the price of my raw materials. I've also cut back sharply on stock levels.

I also lost my European and EEA markets on 13th December as I cannot and will not comply with the new GPSR requirements. Luckily most of my international sales were to non EU countries anyway so whilst it hurts, it isn't a total disaster.

Might just give up, close down and claim benefits instead.

Inabitofbother · 12/02/2025 13:23

I wouldn’t be surprised. Productivity is low, interest rates are falling again, the dollar is strong and Trump is playing silly buggers in the global economy, the uK government is a bit clueless and business confidence and inward investment aren’t exactly great. Unemployment is high among young people and yet the proportion of productive citizens isn’t improving enough due to higher numbers of inactive/retired people post Covid. Health of the nation is poor and social welfare is crippling the economy. Oh and we left the EU and that’s all still a crappy old mess.