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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

Are we heading into a major recession?

430 replies

bodychanges · 12/02/2025 13:16

Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

OP posts:
bozzabollix · 12/02/2025 21:47

StandFirm · 12/02/2025 14:29

And we need to rejoin the customs union and single market. That madness has lasted long enough. Pride and ideology won't save businesses and feed families ffs...

Exactly this. We’ve tied our hands behind our back voluntarily and expect to perform the same. This is your sovereignty Brexit voters.

MichaelandKirk · 12/02/2025 21:43

So there is literally no one in Labour that has any experience to run the economy. Fgs! Maybe they could learn on the job though?

What a shit show…

TheNuthatch · 12/02/2025 21:06

Meadowfinch · 12/02/2025 18:15

YANBU. The impact of the NI increase has yet to hit. Job vacancies are falling rapidly.

Unless some other indicators start to look up, I think yes, we will go into recession.

Labour are as terrible as ever at managing the economy but no-one could have foreseen that they would cock it up so disastrously and so quickly.

Starmer needs to reshuiffle Reeves as far away from the Exchequer as he possibly can. She is genuinely ignorant and it shows. The money markets know it. They have no faith in her, don't trust her and she needs to be replaced before she makes things even worse.

Who they replace her with though, that's a key question. I can't see an obvious choice.

The only one I can see who could replace RR is Darren Jones.
That may be a case of out of the frying pan and into the fire though!

kateluvscats · 12/02/2025 20:24

Devon24 · 12/02/2025 13:56

Yes we have a predictable Labour shit show.
They have no idea whatsoever how to create growth.

By then we will be swamped due to no border control and the NHS will collapse due to the pressure. Housing crisis etc.

We were shouted down on here when we tried to warn people, I really wish I had been pleasantly surprised, but sadly not.

People voted for hope and now they have realised that the only way we are ever going to get out of this mess is to suspend all immigration for 5 years - ensure everyone has a home and a job. Fire up the economy and cut the benefits bill in half by making healthy people work for longer. Before we lose all of the companies and professionals creating wealth because it’s unbearable to live here.

It is ridiculous that people are still blaming truss, typical Labour deflection. Reeves is ruining our credit rating as we speak and driving the economy into a doom
cycle. I am holding them fully accountable.

Edited

Well said and beautifully put!

Moonlightstars · 12/02/2025 20:20

Dorisbonson · 12/02/2025 15:53

If millionaires are making so much from people being poorer why are they leaving the UK and dumping their investments?

Out net zero policies mean we pay up to 300 pounds a megawatts hour for intermittent offshore wind energy that used to cost 40 pounds a megawatt hour. We pay for battery storage on top due to the intermittency and billions of pounds for electricity cables out to the north sea wind farms. Out energy bills are 3 times higher than the USA and are the highest in the developed world.

We import over 30% of our electricity through sub sea cables because we don't make enough in that UK anymore. 6% of our energy comes from burning wood pellets in Yorkshire which have been imported from Brazil and North America.

If we had the same energy policies as the USA our energy bills would be 50% less.

Show quote history

They're leaving because Farage didn't get into power! If you did it would be like what is happening in the US.

TizerorFizz · 12/02/2025 20:15

@bodychanges There are jobs! We recruit foreign people into them. We do need to get the people in this country apready into the jobs. Angela Rayner will be amending employment legislation soon. So fewer jobs.

As for the earlier suggestion of much higher taxes on private landlords? That has to be one of the most stupid suggestions - it’s such a good idea for them to sell up and pull out. What would that do to rental prices? It’s financially illiterate like RR.

Original poster
bodychanges · 12/02/2025 20:03

Sorry, sent in haste. So, yes, my takeaway is we are in a state and it’s not going to get any better.

im terrified for the NI increase in April. Even more people competing for even fewer jobs.

i really appreciate all the informed views.

OP posts:
Original poster
bodychanges · 12/02/2025 20:02

Wow, thanks everyone. I’ve only just caught up with all the messages.

OP posts:
Whammyyammy · 12/02/2025 19:49

Labour will make sure we do, that's for sure.

Kitte321 · 12/02/2025 19:44

Surely, as a starting point labour need to reverse NI increases, the employment rights bill and the EPR scheme. Food inflation is projected to increase by 4% and the job losses are already substantial. Retail (particularly) but many businesses can’t shoulder the additional costs. It was an utterly ridiculous decision.

Re housing. It’s a much tougher issue. You can’t just ‘deflate’ the market because you would have tens of thousands left in negative equity situations. Really, I think the answer lies in more social housing, no right to buy and tighter regulation around no right to remain in a council owned property if it is too large for the remaining tenant.

PixiePonies · 12/02/2025 19:16

wipeywipe · 12/02/2025 16:33

The pp is correct. You might not notice as I take it you are a Labour voter

I've voted for all 3 parties over the years. I won't be voting Reform though.

I used to say that too…

Feelingathomenow · 12/02/2025 19:12

The economy is struggling - thank you everyone who voted Labour. - one of the most predictable outcomes of voting these clueless idiots in.

MarioSis · 12/02/2025 19:09

HauntedBungalow · 12/02/2025 15:20

Well our business was doing OK until Labour came in.

What business was that then? Fake covid tracking? Arms dealing? Gold?

Tories bust the economy and put halts on future recovery by brexiting us.

I am a remainer but how can we blame the tories for brexit? Many of their MPs are remainers, David Cameron was one. Their mistake is they gave in to the pressure to give what the people wanted and hoped for the best, the choice to exit the EU. It is the utter idiocy of majority of British people that made Brexit happen.

MichaelandKirk · 12/02/2025 19:08

Who has the experience to be Chancellor within Labour? Who understands business both large and small?

Answer= no one in Labour. So where does this leave us??

Theunamedcat · 12/02/2025 19:04

LadyPoison · 12/02/2025 15:05

That is a really nasty post even by Mumsnet standards.

There are many small businesses like mine that are struggling and on the brink of survival. It's tough being a sole trader. We have no safety net. If I can't afford to buy gold then I go under. It's as simple as that! In a poor economy discretionary spending is the first thing to be cut back on and that hurts me badly.

I guess you are sitting pretty with a good job and a pension. Good for you.

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Accurate though benefits are a trap

Fluffyowl00 · 12/02/2025 18:58

Dorisbonson · 12/02/2025 16:23

Why don't you address specific points? Scared of the facts?

If you want to be poorer, have more crime, more immigration, higher energy bills then I'm sure Labour will give you that.

Show quote history

THE FACTS:

Nigel Farage openly lied and misled voters about Brexit.

Did I miss any?

EmeraldRoulette · 12/02/2025 18:48

I have yet to catch up on this thread. But when I saw the word "interregnum", I wondered if someone was going to say that we are in a period where people do know what the next plan is but they're not ready to tell us yet. Like a "managed decline" scenario.

wipeywipe · 12/02/2025 18:43

Starmer need to sack the chancellor and put someone in place who actually has innovative ideas and enough experience and skills to turn things around.

It's unlikely we can turn things around & if there is a magic solution it will take years and years.

wipeywipe · 12/02/2025 18:41

I think we are in an interregnum period where the 'powers that be' know there are problems, but don't know how to deal with them without causing massive upheaval so are simply pretending that what worked in the past should be tried again.

I agree but the public can't handle the truth.

Cattreesea · 12/02/2025 18:39

Reeves is making one bad decision after another and this Labour government in general has shown a great deal of incompetence and poor judgement.

Starmer need to sack the chancellor and put someone in place who actually has innovative ideas and enough experience and skills to turn things around.

As it stands they are just the Tories 2.0 and continuing to bring the country to its knees.

EasternStandard · 12/02/2025 18:37

MichaelandKirk · 12/02/2025 18:11

Labour are making really awful decisions. Name one Cabinet Minister that has run a company successfully or not?

They have literally talked the country down and taxed not just the big corporations but smashed the SMEs.

Basically this

ExpressCheckout · 12/02/2025 18:35

Livelovebehappy · 12/02/2025 18:26

Afraid this is what happens when you have a bunch of incompetents 'playing' at being in government. None of them have a clue what. Theyre doing. It's frightening.

Yep, agree. Andy Burnham was on Radio 4 PM programme this evening. He hit every point on the head - I only hope his Labour friends in London were listening, but I suspect they were not.

NeelyOHara1 · 12/02/2025 18:33

I think we are in an interregnum period where the 'powers that be' know there are problems, but don't know how to deal with them without causing massive upheaval so are simply pretending that what worked in the past should be tried again. Meanwhile Trump, Musk and co are experimenting with creative destruction...

ExpressCheckout · 12/02/2025 18:33

wipeywipe · 12/02/2025 18:27

This kind of covers it all. Now all Rachel and co. need to do is fix it.

I don't think it can be fixed, well at least not in my lifetime.

I hope it will be, but I see your point. First steps should be to reverse the NI increase for employers - a completely ridiculous idea when growth is needed in the economy! 🙄

wipeywipe · 12/02/2025 18:27

This kind of covers it all. Now all Rachel and co. need to do is fix it.

I don't think it can be fixed, well at least not in my lifetime.