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Are we heading into a major recession?

430 replies

bodychanges · 12/02/2025 13:16

Things are already tough in my industry - I’m a contractor and this past year is my worst in over two decades - but should I be expecting things to get worse not better?

and I sound stupid, but what are the main economic indicators?

OP posts:
SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 09:54

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 09:52

@SerendipityJane I'd rather first quarter 2024 0.7

How about you? Was it too much growth and 0.1 feels more comfortable

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EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 09:52

@SerendipityJane I'd rather first quarter 2024 0.7

How about you? Was it too much growth and 0.1 feels more comfortable

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 09:50

Porcuporpoise · 13/02/2025 09:43

It's just that it's hard to remember the last 14 years under the Tories and then think that Labour are the source of all our troubles. Most people's brains can't manage that sort of mental gymnastics.

Or maybe you're one of the lucky few who did well under the previous government, in which case sorry your snout has been displaced from the trough.

You sound nice.
Has your life been significantly improved since labour came to power? Please explain.
Unless you're a train driver? Or a bee?

SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 09:49

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 09:32

So it's the wrong sort of growth ?

Is 0.1 what Labour are after? I thought they wanted 'fastest growing in G7'

They took 0.7 first quarter 2024 and reduced it to near zero.

Is that what you and they had in mind?

-.01>0.1>1>5>10

is how numbers work. If you would rather it was -0.2% than 0.1% just say.

Neemie · 13/02/2025 09:47

Ma11ard · 13/02/2025 08:22

But the economy grew

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gx50z4527t

And if you want to talk about job losses can we discuss Brexit. None of you Tories gave a shit when many many people lost jobs and continue to do so as whole companies moved out of the uk.

I’m not a brexiteer or a Tory. It is possible to criticise a political party simply because you think they are doing a bad job. Just imagine how much the economy could have grown with a better budget. Even Rachel Reeves isn’t pretending 0.1% is anything to be happy about.

Porcuporpoise · 13/02/2025 09:43

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 09:33

FFS. There are none so blind ...

It's just that it's hard to remember the last 14 years under the Tories and then think that Labour are the source of all our troubles. Most people's brains can't manage that sort of mental gymnastics.

Or maybe you're one of the lucky few who did well under the previous government, in which case sorry your snout has been displaced from the trough.

Porcuporpoise · 13/02/2025 09:39

MichaelandKirk · 13/02/2025 08:13

Someone mentioned universities. Its about time this sector has a light shone on it. The VC salaries are obscene. I have just over the last 3 years had two children go to university. One to Exeter and another to a northern university. Just look up the salaries for the average VC. One son did his degree during Covid. The lecturers made a run for it as soon as they could. The then went on strike and worked to rule. Old lectures were just posted online for the students to watch. A group of students made some attempt to get back some of the fees due to the appalling standard of teaching but lacked the expereince to take it very far.

We also need to review the students attending courses from abroad where it seems a number overstay their visa and make the immirgation issue we are currently suffering from much worse. The greedy universities dont want to give up the higher International fees. After all - who would pay their salaries??

Who would pay your child's tuition fees come to that? You know - the actual cost incurred, not just the part of it he pays.

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 09:33

SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 09:28

So it's the wrong sort of growth ?

Didn't you work for British Rail once ?

FFS. There are none so blind ...

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 09:32

So it's the wrong sort of growth ?

Is 0.1 what Labour are after? I thought they wanted 'fastest growing in G7'

They took 0.7 first quarter 2024 and reduced it to near zero.

Is that what you and they had in mind?

SerendipityJane · 13/02/2025 09:28

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 08:53

If you look a little closer, the economy grew only because of a slight recovery in manufacturing and services. This growth could also very easily be revised down at a later date.
GDP per person has actually fallen for the second consecutive quarter.

So it's the wrong sort of growth ?

Didn't you work for British Rail once ?

DdraigGoch · 13/02/2025 09:26

When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. The new President is working hard to tickle the Statue of Liberty's nose.

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 09:17

We should all be angry with this government, however you vote.

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 09:03

@Ma11ard the BoE recently halved growth projection and increased inflation getting us closer to stagflation

This is due to Labour's policies. Why is that good exactly?

ARealitycheck · 13/02/2025 08:55

Ma11ard · 13/02/2025 08:22

But the economy grew

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gx50z4527t

And if you want to talk about job losses can we discuss Brexit. None of you Tories gave a shit when many many people lost jobs and continue to do so as whole companies moved out of the uk.

From the other side of the brexit coin, how many UK workers found their wages stagnate or struggled to enter many industries due to cheap migrant labour.

I don't think looked at objectively the UK is worse off than other European countries such as Germany or France. Long term whether brexit was best or not, I genuinely cannot say and nor can anyone else.

TheNuthatch · 13/02/2025 08:53

Ma11ard · 13/02/2025 08:22

But the economy grew

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gx50z4527t

And if you want to talk about job losses can we discuss Brexit. None of you Tories gave a shit when many many people lost jobs and continue to do so as whole companies moved out of the uk.

If you look a little closer, the economy grew only because of a slight recovery in manufacturing and services. This growth could also very easily be revised down at a later date.
GDP per person has actually fallen for the second consecutive quarter.

ARealitycheck · 13/02/2025 08:50

WhitegreeNcandle · 13/02/2025 06:39

Completely agree with this. I’d love to be able to pay our staff more. Quite a lot more. Mumsnet normally shouts me down saying that my business isn’t viable if I can’t pay a decent wage. Thing is, the price we pay is based on what supermarkets pay us which is based on consumer appetite. Every tiny decision we make about how we live our life has impact on the rest of society.

We need a seismic shift in what jobs are respected and valued.

@juggleit its so frustrating isn’t it. We had one chap recently who said his car broke down so he couldn’t get to work. He lived very close to existing staff so we ordered to arrange transport whilst he got it fixed. Never heard from the chap again.

Big business like tesco etc are terrible for the way they treat suppliers and staff alike.

Kitte321 · 13/02/2025 08:49

Ma11ard · 13/02/2025 08:22

But the economy grew

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gx50z4527t

And if you want to talk about job losses can we discuss Brexit. None of you Tories gave a shit when many many people lost jobs and continue to do so as whole companies moved out of the uk.

It wasn’t just Tory supporters that voted Brexit though was it?!? You can thank vast sections of society from both ends of the political spectrum for that.

It has also been acknowledged on this thread that Brexit was a disaster. But does that give Labour a free pass to also introduce ill thought through, stifling policies that also cause huge economic harm. Is being shit okay just because it’s labour? How depressing.

MichaelandKirk · 13/02/2025 08:44

Who thinks that increasing NI for employers will start growth??

Answer = Reeves

Ma11ard · 13/02/2025 08:43

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 08:42

@Ma11ard the private sector is shrinking and jobs are going. Are you happy Labour is causing that?

Are you happy with what the Tories did the last 14 years making tough decisions and measures necessary?

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 08:42

@Ma11ard the private sector is shrinking and jobs are going. Are you happy Labour is causing that?

Ma11ard · 13/02/2025 08:22

Neemie · 13/02/2025 08:15

You sound very smug and privileged. Meanwhile, over 20 people at my work are being made redundant due to increased costs because of Labour budget and fewer customers because of shrinking economy.

But the economy grew

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gx50z4527t

And if you want to talk about job losses can we discuss Brexit. None of you Tories gave a shit when many many people lost jobs and continue to do so as whole companies moved out of the uk.

GDP latest: UK economy unexpectedly grew at the end of last year, new figures show

GDP figures for the last quarter of 2024 show growth of 0.1%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gx50z4527t

Neemie · 13/02/2025 08:15

BanditTheCat · 12/02/2025 23:15

Gosh this post and some of the comments is another one that just smacks of opposition party tactics

how many more of these are we going to see?

You sound very smug and privileged. Meanwhile, over 20 people at my work are being made redundant due to increased costs because of Labour budget and fewer customers because of shrinking economy.

MichaelandKirk · 13/02/2025 08:13

Someone mentioned universities. Its about time this sector has a light shone on it. The VC salaries are obscene. I have just over the last 3 years had two children go to university. One to Exeter and another to a northern university. Just look up the salaries for the average VC. One son did his degree during Covid. The lecturers made a run for it as soon as they could. The then went on strike and worked to rule. Old lectures were just posted online for the students to watch. A group of students made some attempt to get back some of the fees due to the appalling standard of teaching but lacked the expereince to take it very far.

We also need to review the students attending courses from abroad where it seems a number overstay their visa and make the immirgation issue we are currently suffering from much worse. The greedy universities dont want to give up the higher International fees. After all - who would pay their salaries??

EasternStandard · 13/02/2025 06:53

BanditTheCat · 12/02/2025 23:15

Gosh this post and some of the comments is another one that just smacks of opposition party tactics

how many more of these are we going to see?

I was thinking that about this type of post on every thread from Labour

Do you swerve all news and economic analysis?

WhitegreeNcandle · 13/02/2025 06:39

ARealitycheck · 13/02/2025 02:23

What also needs to happen is a seismic shift in what we consider higher paid jobs. We have a lack of workers in a number of manual positions, hospitality and care industry especially. Paying just above minimum wage doesn't cut it in comparison to role demands.

Perhaps we all must accept that cleaning and caring for elderly people or dealing with the public in service situations etc must be higher paid, in comparison to more office based jobs which can often be semi automated with modern technology.

Completely agree with this. I’d love to be able to pay our staff more. Quite a lot more. Mumsnet normally shouts me down saying that my business isn’t viable if I can’t pay a decent wage. Thing is, the price we pay is based on what supermarkets pay us which is based on consumer appetite. Every tiny decision we make about how we live our life has impact on the rest of society.

We need a seismic shift in what jobs are respected and valued.

@juggleit its so frustrating isn’t it. We had one chap recently who said his car broke down so he couldn’t get to work. He lived very close to existing staff so we ordered to arrange transport whilst he got it fixed. Never heard from the chap again.