To wonder if Starmer can survive the vibe-shift?

Have you read that article and come to the conclusion that there won't be any cuts to benefits?
It screams the opposite to me.

This confirms there is no firm policy as yet, so really would be interested to see your source @bymerrykoala that there will be changes in the Spring. Maybe you mean the green paper?

"But a green paper with more detail on the future of the DWP is set to be released in Spring"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/dwp-benefit-changes-disability-2025-pip-uc-wca-b2685674.html

Do you have a link to what is changing in the Spring please? I am hearing a lot of talk on this about what might or might not happen but haven't seen anything concrete that sets out the changes.

I think Labour said it would publish its own response to the Tories consultation on benefits, but haven't seem anything. Maybe I missed it.

Why was your response to the reforms coming to welfare payments in spring met with a response about Cameron and Osborne? That won't be any consolation to people who will find themselves at the mercy of cuts made by Reeves? It won't be hyperbole to say that we expect to see a dismantling of how things currently are. And when that happens I hope you are at the front leading criticism, god knows you are persistent enough.

If they do replace Starmer with Cooper, I'm hoping she gives her husband a job as Chancellor. He can't be any worse than Reeves!
West Streeting is the only one I can think of, but if the hard left oust Starmer I doubt they would accept Streeting.

I have family in Wales who say that both Plaid and Reform are doing well there. It will be interesting to see what happens.

concerns for the disability coming in Spring because Osborne was worse

You’ve seen nothing of the sort. If any proposal is made to threaten disability support I’ll be first at the barricades. If you’re not prepared to have a discussion with me, maybe stop with the lying attacks @ByMerryKoala?

The only possible theoretical replacement for Starmer that I can think of is Yvette Cooper, since she is one of the very few cabinet members with more than 6 months experience of running a country.

I live in Wales where there won't be any council elections. The big date here will be May 2026 at the Senedd elections where Welsh Labour will (I hope) be decimated.

Labour will see

No, Blossomtoes, nothing further to say. I've seen you wave away concerns about wfa because your friends don't need it, waspi concerns because you never believed it, concerns for the disability coming in Spring because Osborne was worse, and claim that Keir needs a Falklands so he can see a boost in the polls. I think we can just agree to disagree from herein.

I agree that the press enjoy political drama, of course they do. I disagree that this government are a bit boring leaving the media having to dig for dirt.
This government are the gift that keeps on giving for the press. From Starmer with his Lord Ali freebies, Sue Gray, Lou Haigh, WFA, right through to his appointment of a possibly corrupt anti corruption minister. Boring they are not!

This nonsense that the press are giving Labour a harder time than they gave Conservatives really does need to he put to bed.
Labour are giving the press plenty to get their teeth into without any digging or 'looking for vibes', whatever that means

Yep it's nonsense

We’ll put it to bed when it stops.

This nonsense that the press are giving Labour a harder time than they gave Conservatives really does need to he put to bed.
Labour are giving the press plenty to get their teeth into without any digging or 'looking for vibes', whatever that means

Perhaps you heard that and thought, 'oh, he's misdirecting the electorate here' but I don't remember you up and down the boards in June to give everybody clarity on the issue - just telling everyone that people voting on single sex issues are muppets and Labour are the real cheerleader for women.

I’ve always been pretty clear that I thought compensation for WASPI women was for the birds, it wasn’t an election issue. I don’t think any political party is a cheerleader for women and, although “muppet” isn’t part of my lexicon, I do think single issue voters are misguided.

Care to address any of the other points I made?

This isn't 'vibes' it's impacting jobs

Business volumes in the services sector are anticipated to decline (-18%), driven by predicted falls in both business and professional services (-13%) and consumer services (-37%). Distribution sales are expected to fall steeply (-35%), and manufacturers also anticipate output to fall (-31%), with expectations at their weakest since May 2020.

Reeves and Starmer have created this problem with their own misjudgement and policy errors

Whether they keep laughing it off and trying to distract with China / third runway / anything we'll see

One big problem that Labour face is that the press got used to the constant political drama over the last 10 years. The current government are a bit boring by comparison, but column inches still need to be filled, so the press will dig for any dirt they can, and if they can't find any then they go for vibes.

No, it was not mentioned in the campaign - of course. It was a part of every Labour conference until the were in striking distance of governance. They just quietly dropped it.

Starmer absolutely supported the waspi women in opposition and their claims to compensation. If you personally didn't believe the rhetoric, that's fine, but you can hardly say that it adds to Labour's trust capital when they step away from their principles once in office.

In a 2022 interview, Sir Keir said: “All your working life you’ve got in mind the date on which you can retire and get your pension, and just as you get towards it, the goalposts are moved and you don’t get it, and it’s a real injustice.

We need to do something about it. That wasn’t the basis on which you paid in or the basis on which you were working"

Perhaps you heard that and thought, 'oh, he's misdirecting the electorate here' but I don't remember you up and down the boards in June to give everybody clarity on the issue - just telling everyone that people voting on single sex issues are muppets and Labour are the real cheerleader for women.

The poll showed that most voters backed Trump’s criticism of the crumbling state of the US government, when the thought was translated to the UK.
He said: “We have a public health system that does not deliver in times of disaster, yet more money is spent on it than any country anywhere in the world.”
When asked whether this applies in the UK, more than 60 per cent supported it.

This isn't just a matter of opinion, it's factually incorrect. In other words, 60% of those surveyed didn't know what they were talking about.

British voters actually back Trump’s policies – here’s the proof

I don’t remember the winter fuel allowance being mentioned by any party in the election campaign and support for Waspi women was Corbyn led - I’m one of those women and I never expected that we’d receive compensation, I always thought it was naive optimism.

If I said I wasn’t disappointed since July I’d be lying. I am disappointed by the retention of the two child benefit cap and I’d prefer a more radical approach generally. This all feels a bit Tory lite to me. But it’s hyperbole to talk about dismantling the welfare state - Cameron and Osborne made such huge inroads into that there isn’t much of it left.

I am going to give a new government more than six months in the same way you appear to be giving the virtually non existent opposition more time.

Maybe, maybe not.

It will also possibly be carnage for the Tories, but as 13 Tory led councils have bottled it asked for a delay, we might not see the full extent of that carnage.

It will be carnage for Labour.

I think the government is only allowed to accept a delay of 12 out of the 16 requested.
That's still a awful lot of voters unable to vote.

Of 21 county councils scheduled for this year, 16 have requested a delay:

Derbyshire
Devon
East Sussex
West Sussex
Essex
Gloucestershire
Hampshire
Kent
Leicestershire
Lincolnshire
Norfolk
Oxfordshire
Suffolk
Surrey
Warwickshire
Worcestershire

Haven't some local elections been cancelled?